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Predictions graded

Remy Bertola #204Switzerland0Jesper De Jong #95Netherlands2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Tue 22 Sept 2026, 12:08 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesper De Jong · 109 places

Remy Bertola

Switzerland

Bertola, 175 cm, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand and is listed at No. 204. No dependable external profile detail could be retrieved for this fixture, so his structured ranking and recent form carry the player context.

Current ranking: #204
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

De Jong is the higher-ranked man in this fixture at No. 95, a 180 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand. No dependable external profile detail could be retrieved for this match.

Current ranking: #95
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:56 · Europe/Bucharest

De Jong sits 109 ranking places higher and is the likelier winner of this first-round indoor hard match, but the 1.3 match price, the 1.44 for him to take the first set and the 1.9 for a 2-0 win all ask for more than his 4-4 hard-court window supports.

The two prices that offer something run the other way: Bertola at 3.2 to win the match and 2.6 to win the first set.

Context

That points to sets being decided before 6-6 rather than tight, drawn-out exchanges, which is why his sets in this format average just 18.3 games. It is a six-match sample that splits evenly, three wins and three losses, so it describes the shape of his matches more than it settles who wins this one.
- De Jong's six hard-court, best-of-three matches from 14 Aug to 19 Sep all ended 2-0 or 0-2 (three wins, three losses).
- Only one of those six matches contained a tiebreak.
- His sets in this format average 18.3 games, with first sets averaging 10.0.
Long matches have been the norm for Bertola on this surface: his seven-match window averages 25.6 games against De Jong's 18.3 in the same format. That raises the chances of a scrappier, more drawn-out contest, though the sample is small and its most recent match is nearly three weeks before this fixture.
- Across seven hard-court, best-of-three matches (14 Jul to 3 Sep), Bertola averaged 25.6 total games per match.
- Three of those seven went to a deciding set.
- His set-by-set record in that window was 2-5 in first sets and 3-4 in second sets.
A returner who can keep the ball in play on the second serve gets a look at De Jong, since his first-serve points won figure of 73.6% is far clear of what he manages behind the second ball. The window covers 14 matches through 19 September and mixes surfaces rather than isolating this indoor court, so it is a pattern to weigh rather than a prediction about this match.
- De Jong won 43.9% of second-serve points (232 of 529) across 14 of his last 15 tracked matches, through 19 September.
- He averaged 6.3 double faults per match over those same 14 matches.
- His first-serve points won in that sample was 73.6% (482 of 655).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jesper De Jong 2-0

1.90fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 52.6%

−14.6ppshort

De Jong's hard-court wins in this window have all come in straight sets, and Bertola has been beaten 0-2 three times.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong is more than a hundred ranking places higher and holds the better hard-court serve and return numbers, with his recent defeats coming against top-100 opposition.
- De Jong ranked 95, Bertola 204
- Hard-court points won this window: De Jong 50.2%, Bertola 48.4%
- Hard-court return points won: De Jong 40.5%, Bertola 36.5%
- De Jong's hard-court losses came to Bergs (38), Walton (99) and Gaston (97)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bertola's hard-court matches regularly run past 21 games, which lifts the combined expectation above the line.
- Bertola's 7 hard-court best-of-3 matches average 25.6 games
- De Jong's 6 average 18.3 games
- Bertola's hard-court matches average 120 minutes
- Bertola's hard-court scorelines include three-set results in three of seven matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets sit right around ten games on average, so the line is close to a coin flip.
- De Jong's first sets average 10.0 games on hard
- Bertola's first sets average 9.9 games
- Only one first-set tiebreak across 13 sampled matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's hard-court matches in this format have ended in straight sets every time, which is the single clearest pattern in the sample.
- De Jong's 6 hard-court best-of-3 matches all finished 2-0 or 0-2
- De Jong's average sets played on hard is 2.0
- Bertola's average is 2.43 across 7 matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong has split first sets evenly while Bertola has lost five of seven, giving De Jong the steadier start.
- De Jong has won 3 of 6 first sets on hard in this format
- Bertola has won 2 of 7 first sets
- De Jong wins 73% of first-serve points on hard, Bertola 70.7%
- Bertola has lost his last three opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been close for both, but De Jong's stronger overall serve and return figures give him a slight edge.
- De Jong has won 3 of 6 second sets on hard in this format
- Bertola has won 3 of 7 second sets
- De Jong's second sets average 4.5 games won to 3.8 lost
- Bertola's second sets average 5.6 games each way
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's hard-court ace rate comes close to pushing the combined total past this line in a normal match.
- Combined hard-court average of about 10 aces per match
- Bertola averages 3.7 aces per hard-court match
- De Jong averages 6.3 per hard-court match
- De Jong's hard-court matches of this format average 18.3 games
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in De Jong's hard-court matches, which frequently break open before 6-6.
- 5 tiebreaks across 13 sampled hard-court matches
- De Jong's 6 hard-court matches featured a single tiebreak
- De Jong's second sets average 8.3 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault heavily on this surface, and the combined rate already sits above the line.
- De Jong averages 7.6 double faults per hard-court match (53 in 7)
- Bertola averages 6.0 (42 in 7)
- Combined hard-court average is 13.6 per match
- De Jong's overall average is 6.3 over 14 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Jesper De Jong: 7/10 recent winner projections matched

7 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Jesper De Jong matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jesper De Jong10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#163Timofey Skatov2-1#98Jesper De Jong

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#163Timofey Skatov2-1#98Jesper De Jong

Jesper De Jong to win

62%probability

Timofey Skatov won

Missed

13 Jul·ATP Bastad

#73Jesper De Jong2-0#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#73Jesper De Jong2-0#129Vilius Gaubas

Jesper De Jong to win

72%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

16 Jun·Parma - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong0-2#225Laslo Djere

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·62%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong0-2#225Laslo Djere

Jesper De Jong to win

62%probability

Laslo Djere won

Missed

11 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong2-1#341Federico Bondioli

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·78%

Matched

11 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong2-1#341Federico Bondioli

Jesper De Jong to win

78%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#106Jesper De Jong2-0#361Ognjen Milic

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·82%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#106Jesper De Jong2-0#361Ognjen Milic

Jesper De Jong to win

82%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

Remy Bertola

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 10-8#251Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#198Edas Butvilas

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#285Jerome Kym

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#178Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-4#228Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-6(2)#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 6-4#94Jacob Fearnley

6-1 6-4#449Spencer Johnson

6-2 6-1#78Adrian Mannarino

2-6 6-4 3-6 7-5 6-2#241Max Basing

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#139Jurij Rodionov

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#209Liam Draxl

6-4 7-5#115Christopher O'Connell

6-3 6-4#125Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 6-3#113Yibing Wu

Jesper De Jong

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#647Samuel Heredia

7-5 1-6 6-2 7-6(2)#38Zizou Bergs

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#223Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#99Adam Walton

7-6(2) 6-1#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-1#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 6-0#110Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#34Alex Michelsen

1-6 6-4 6-3#199Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(1) 7-5#117Vilius Gaubas

6-1 7-5 6-4#28Joao Fonseca

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-5#181Laslo Djere

6-3 6-2#245Roberto Carballes Baena

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RBRemy BertolaBertola

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Jesper De JongJongJJ

Jesper De Jong carries the stronger recent form — Remy Bertola's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1554.3%+1.0pp55.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1571.8%+1.8pp73.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1550.1%+6.2pp43.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.1+1.87.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/155.90.4 fewer6.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1536.5%+2.3pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1545.1%+9.8pp35.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1550.6%+8.5pp59.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.1%—49.6%

Serve · 2–3

54.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+1.0pp55.3%

71.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.8pp73.6%

50.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+6.2pp43.9%

6.1Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.87.9

5.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.4 fewer6.3

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.3pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+9.8pp35.3%

50.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+8.5pp59.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—49.6%