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Predictions graded

Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia2Andre Ilagan #243United States0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 05:09 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndre Ilagan · 42 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Andre Ilagan

United States

The American is 25 and left-handed. ITF listed him at No. 248 on 20 July 2026; structured match data lists No. 243. His recorded professional singles results are predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #248 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 12:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Chengdu qualifying opener: Ilagan is ranked 184, Biryukov 269, and Ilagan arrives off a three-set loss to world No.

602. His stronger second sets make him the more likely winner. Of the reviewed prices, Under 33.5 games at 2.6, Under 2.5 sets at 2.9, Biryukov for the second set at 3.2 and Ilagan to win the match at 2.1 are the ones worth taking; Biryukov at 1.73 and Ilagan for the second set at 1.30 are not.

Context

Ilagan, ranked 184, has been steadier once a match settles: his second sets average 10.7 games and have produced five tiebreaks across the 15 matches.
Biryukov is 7-7 in second sets over his 14 completed hard-court matches, so the middle set is where Ilagan's recent record looks strongest. The sample is only 15 second sets, and how the first set went shapes the second, so this reads as a lean rather than a settled edge.
- Ilagan won 9 of 15 second sets on hard courts between 21 July and 15 September 2026
- He won 7 of 15 first sets in the same window
- His second sets average 10.7 games and include five tiebreaks
Ilagan, ranked 184, had won three of the five hard-court matches listed before that defeat in mid-September.
It shows the ranking gap to Biryukov is no guarantee of level on the day, and the match went all the way to a deciding set. The recent sample is small, and one result does not set the pattern for the next one.
- Ilagan lost 5-7 7-6 6-7 to Bryce Nakashima, ranked 602, on 15 September 2026
- He won 18 games to Nakashima's 20 across the three sets
- He had won three of the five hard-court matches listed before that defeat
The service numbers come from the same 15-match window that produced Ilagan's 9-6 record, and he also saved 60.2% of the break points he faced.
A 64% first-serve rate is a steady base going into a qualifying match against a left-hander, but the sample is modest and his 37.8% of return points won shows the rest of his game is where the margins thin out.
- 64% first serves in (747 of 1,167) over 15 matches, 21 July to 15 September 2026
- 66% of first-serve points won and 53.3% of second-serve points won
- 4.6 aces and 2.3 double faults per match in the same window
Biryukov, a left-hander ranked 269, has not often been stretched in this window: his first sets average 10.7 games and have produced four tiebreaks.
Ilagan's own window runs a little longer at 24.5 games and 2.4 sets per match, so both players have been ending matches inside the standard distance more often than not. The record covers completed matches only, with one retirement removed from Biryukov's sample, and 14 matches is a small base.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 2 August to 19 September 2026, with one retirement excluded
- Scorelines in that sample: five 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, five 0-2 defeats, one 1-2 defeat
- Matches average 23.5 total games and 2.29 sets

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Ilagan is the higher-ranked player and his wins in this window came against better opponents than Biryukov's.
- Ilagan is ranked 184, Biryukov 269
- Ilagan went 9-6 in his 15 hard-court matches; Biryukov 8-6 in 14
- Ilagan won 50% of points and 50.5% of games in that window
- Biryukov's recent defeats came to opponents ranked 232 and 424
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndre IlaganEstimated chance56%

Games5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.60
The read
The line sits roughly ten games above either player's average match length, and only a very long three-setter would reach it.
- Biryukov's matches average 23.5 total games
- Ilagan's matches average 24.5 total games
- Average sets played are 2.29 and 2.40
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 33.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan stays within three games in almost all of his matches, win or lose.
- Ilagan's game difference in the window is +2 over 15 matches
- Only 6 of his 15 matches were decided by more than three games either way
- Biryukov's recent matches produced margins of 5, 4 and 4 games at worst
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndre Ilagan +2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan rarely pulls away on the scoreboard, so an Ilagan win will usually come with a margin of one game or less.
- Ilagan's total game difference in the window is +2 across 15 matches
- Biryukov's recent defeats were by 5, 4 and 4 games
- Ilagan has won only 50.5% of games played
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPetr Bar Biryukov +1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have run longer on average than first sets for both players.
- Biryukov's second sets average 9.9 games
- Ilagan's second sets average 10.7 games
- Ilagan has played five second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' opening sets usually reach double figures in games.
- Biryukov's first sets average 10.7 games
- Ilagan's first sets average 9.7 games
- Biryukov has played four first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Straight-set finishes are more common than deciders in both players' recent hard-court records.
- Four of Biryukov's 14 hard-court matches went to three sets (28.6%)
- Six of Ilagan's 15 went to three sets (40%)
- Combined, 10 of 29 matches lasted three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is clearly Ilagan's stronger phase in this window, and he has also gone to five second-set tiebreaks.
- Ilagan has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard courts
- Biryukov is 7-7 in second sets across 14 matches
- Ilagan's second sets average 10.7 games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndre IlaganEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan is the higher-ranked player, but his first sets have been close to even and he tends to start slower than he finishes.
- Biryukov is 7-7 in first sets across 14 hard-court matches
- Ilagan is 7-8 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches
- Ilagan's second-set record is stronger at 9-6
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndre IlaganEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
More than half of the combined recent matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Biryukov's matches featured a tiebreak five times in 14
- Ilagan's featured one eight times in 15
- Biryukov's straight-set wins over Honda and Delaney had no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance54%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.73 price requires 57.8%, above our 44.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Andre Ilagan: 6/7 recent winner projections matched

6 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Andre Ilagan matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Andre Ilagan7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·ATP Washington

#248Andre Ilagan2-0#182Remy Bertola

BetBugsAndre Ilagan to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#248Andre Ilagan2-0#182Remy Bertola

Andre Ilagan to win

62%probability

Andre Ilagan won

Matched

8 Jul·Newport - USA

#263Andre Ilagan2-1#213Rio Noguchi

BetBugsAndre Ilagan to win·55%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#263Andre Ilagan2-1#213Rio Noguchi

Andre Ilagan to win

55%probability

Andre Ilagan won

Matched

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#263Andre Ilagan2-1#432Alex Rybakov

BetBugsAndre Ilagan to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#263Andre Ilagan2-1#432Alex Rybakov

Andre Ilagan to win

62%probability

Andre Ilagan won

Matched

30 Jun·Cary - USA

#288Yosuke Watanuki2-1#258Andre Ilagan

BetBugsAndre Ilagan to win·62%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#288Yosuke Watanuki2-1#258Andre Ilagan

Andre Ilagan to win

62%probability

Yosuke Watanuki won

Missed

30 May·Little Rock - USA

#335Andre Ilagan2-1#581Aidan Mayo

BetBugsAndre Ilagan to win·58%

Matched

30 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#335Andre Ilagan2-1#581Aidan Mayo

Andre Ilagan to win

58%probability

Andre Ilagan won

Matched

Previous match context available

Petr Bar Biryukov

8W 7L

7-5 6-3#232Marat Sharipov (RUS)7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#600Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#424Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#867Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#634Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#796Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#456Jie Cui

6-2 6-3#761Taisei Ichikawa

7-6(4) 0-1 ret.#589Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-2 6-4#697Grigory Shebekin

Andre Ilagan

9W 6L

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#602Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-3#97Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 6-4#208Tristan Boyer

6-2 7-6(6)#136Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#192Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 2-6 6-1#152Tristan Schoolkate

2-6 6-4 6-3#322Andres Martin

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#198Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#449Spencer Johnson

7-6(5) 6-4#444Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 6-4#206Andres Andrade

6-3 7-6(2)#85Marcos Giron

7-5 7-6(2)#204Remy Bertola

7-6(3) 7-5#400Yosuke Watanuki

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Andre IlaganIlaganAI

Andre Ilagan carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.6%+6.4pp64.0%

1st Serve Won73.9%+7.9pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won53.7%—53.3%

Aces / Match9.3+4.74.6

Double Faults / Match4.52.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.8%+6.0pp37.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted39.7%+0.9pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved60.9%—60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.3%—50.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.6%1st Serve In+6.4pp64.0%

73.9%1st Serve Won+7.9pp66.0%

53.7%2nd Serve Won—53.3%

9.3Aces / Match+4.74.6

4.5Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

31.8%Return Pts Won+6.0pp37.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

39.7%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp40.6%

60.9%Break Pts Saved—60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won—50.0%

Petr Bar Biryukov

Andre Ilagan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 33.5

Under 2.5

Andre Ilagan

Petr Bar Biryukov

Result0 of 1 landed

Games5 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 33.5

Petr Bar Biryukov

Andre Ilagan

Stat Battle