Andre Ilagan #248United States22 – 0Remy Bertola #182Switzerland0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50

The read

Ilagan's recent hard-court form (6-5 in last 11) and superior surface fit give him a clear edge over Bertola, who is 0-2 on hard in the last 15 and has a career preference for clay.

• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall on hard: 54.5% win rate (6-5), 49.3% games won, 66% first-serve points won, 38.7% return points won.
• Bertola's last15Stats.bySurface.Hard: 0-2 record, 35.1% games won, 44.2% total points won, 33.3% return points won (2 matches tracked).
• Ilagan's career hard-court win percentage: 123-? (61% overall career win rate, predominantly hard-court success).
• Bertola's career hard-court record: 91 wins vs. 213 on clay, indicating hard is his weakest surface.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing near-even points-won percentages and competitive recent matches, a close match with over 21.5 total games is likely.

• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall average match duration: 122.9 minutes, with 50.1% games won, indicating competitive matches.
• Bertola's last15Stats.overall average match duration: 112.1 minutes, with 49.4% games won.
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (Ilagan 49.3%, Bertola 49.8%) in recent matches, suggesting tight contests.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Bertola's poor hard-court record, his overall competitiveness and Ilagan's tendency for tight matches make Bertola +3.5 games a solid bet.

• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall games won: 50.1%, Bertola's: 49.4%.
• Bertola's hard-court games won: only 35.1% in 2 matches, but overall competitiveness suggests he can keep it close.
• Ilagan's average margin of victory in wins is often narrow (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 sets).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ilagan's recent hard-court sets have been competitive, and Bertola's first sets on hard have averaged 9.5 games, making over 9.5 games in set 1 probable.

• Ilagan's recent hard-court matches often feature tight sets: e.g., 7-6, 7-5 loss to Watanuki, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 loss to Smith.
• Bertola's two hard-court losses were 6-4, 6-4 and 6-1, 6-4, with first sets averaging 9.5 games.
• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall break-point saved: 60%, Bertola's: 55.8%, indicating both can hold serve under pressure.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have second-serve vulnerabilities, and Ilagan's decent break conversion rate suggests the second set could extend beyond 9.5 games.

• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall second-serve points won: 50.8%, Bertola's: 52%, both vulnerable on second serve.
• Bertola's hard-court second-serve points won: only 45.8% in 2 matches, suggesting potential breaks.
• Ilagan's break-point conversion rate: 39.2% overall, 39.8% on hard, indicating he can capitalize.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25

The read

Ilagan's high career first-set conversion rate and better recent return numbers on hard suggest he will start stronger against Bertola, who struggles on this surface.

• Ilagan's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
• Bertola's last15Stats.overall first-serve points won: 72.4%, but on hard only 70% with a low 51% first-serve in.
• Ilagan's last15Stats.overall first-serve points won: 65.1%, but with a higher first-serve in (61.2%) and better return points won (38.7% vs. Bertola's 36.1%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Bertola's high double-fault rate (4.6 per match overall) combined with Ilagan's 2.6 on hard makes over 6.5 total double faults likely.

• Bertola's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 4.6, Ilagan's: 2.5.
• Bertola's hard-court double faults per match: 4.0 in 2 matches.
• Ilagan's hard-court double faults per match: 2.6 in 11 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players evenly matched on recent form and Ilagan's frequent tiebreaks on hard, a tiebreak in this match is more likely than not.

• Ilagan's recent hard-court matches: 3 of last 11 went to a tiebreak (27%).
• Bertola's tiebreak win percentage: 52% career, but no tiebreaks in his 2 hard-court matches.
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (49.3% vs. 49.8%), indicating tight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bertola's overall ace rate is high, but his hard-court sample is small; combined with Ilagan's 4.3 aces per match on hard, over 10.5 total aces is plausible but uncertain.

• Bertola's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 6.6, Ilagan's: 4.0.
• Bertola's grass aces per match: 8.1, but hard only 3.0 in 2 matches (small sample).
• Ilagan's hard-court aces per match: 4.3 in 11 matches.