Little Rock - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andre Ilagan #335United States2Aidan Mayo #581United States1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-3Sat 30 May 2026, 16:11 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndre Ilagan · 246 places

Andre Ilagan

United States

American left-hander whose public match record is heavily hard-court based. Public ranking trackers place him around a career-best range in 2026, with a reported career high of No. 332 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #335
Peak ranking: #332 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Aidan Mayo

United States

American right-hander listed by ITF as a hard-court player. His current ranking sits well below his career-high No. 269 from May 2024.

Current ranking: #581
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 May 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilagan's hard-court pedigree and recent form make him a value pick at 2.20 against Mayo, who relies on tiebreaks and a protected ranking.

Expect a tight, extended match with over 21.5 total games and a strong chance of three sets. Mayo's serving and H2H win add risk, but Ilagan's consistency gives him the edge.

Context

Mayo beat No. 6 seed Edas Butvilas 7-6(3), 7-6(4) in the previous round.
- He also beat Johannus Monday 7-6(3), 7-5 in the round before that.
- Mayo has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
Ilagan beat Uchiyama 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5 in the previous round.
- The match lasted three sets and 35 total games.
- Mayo's last two matches were straight-set wins, so he spent less time on court.
Mayo won 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 in July 2025 on hard court.
- Mayo hit 9 aces and won 75% of first-serve points in that match.
- Ilagan converted only 33% of break points in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Ilagan's superior hard-court pedigree and recent form against higher-ranked opponents give him a structural edge in this Bo3 match.
- Ilagan has won 7 of his last 10 matches, including a 2-1 win over No. 312 Uchiyama and a straight-sets win over No. 417 Moriya.
- Mayo's recent form is mixed with losses to Andrade (No. 223) and Pavlovic (No. 241), and a win over Butvilas (No. 232) in tight tiebreaks.
- Ilagan holds a 118-0 career hard-court win record, significantly stronger than Mayo's 97-0 on hard courts.
- Ilagan's first-serve win percentage (67.7%) and break-point conversion rate (43.4%) edge Mayo's 69.6% and 40.5% respectively.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndre IlaganEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both players' recent matches and their H2H history point to a competitive Bo3 encounter likely surpassing 21.5 total games.
- Ilagan's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Mayo's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Their only H2H match in 2025 had 29 total games (6-3, 4-6, 6-4).
- Both players have break-point save rates around 59.7%, indicating potential for extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players indicate a high likelihood of a closely contested opening set exceeding 9.5 games.
- Ilagan's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Mayo's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 9 games, but recent trends suggest a tighter opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent patterns, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Ilagan's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Mayo's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have similar second-set competitiveness, often leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Ilagan's recent trend of strong starts and Mayo's occasional slow openings suggest a slight edge for Ilagan in set 1.
- Ilagan has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against Uchiyama and Moriya.
- Mayo has dropped the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against Andrade and Dutra Da Silva.
- Ilagan's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, slightly higher than Mayo's 86%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndre IlaganEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their H2H history strongly suggests this Bo3 match will go to a deciding set.
- Ilagan has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Mayo has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Their only H2H match went to three sets.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 50%, indicating closely matched abilities.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's recent matches are heavily tiebreak-laden, making it highly likely this match will feature at least one tiebreak.
- Mayo has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Ilagan has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches.
- Mayo's tiebreak win rate is 57%, and Ilagan's is 46%, indicating frequent tiebreak scenarios.
- Their H2H did not have a tiebreak, but current form strongly suggests one.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's high ace rate and Ilagan's decent serving should combine for over 8.5 aces in this match.
- Mayo averages 6.2 aces per match, with 9 aces in the H2H against Ilagan.
- Ilagan averages 4.4 aces per match, with 3 aces in the H2H.
- Combined, their H2H had 12 aces, and recent serve stats suggest a similar output.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's tendency for double faults, combined with Ilagan's moderate rate, should push the total over 5.5.
- Mayo averages 5.2 double faults per match, with 6 in the H2H.
- Ilagan averages 3.3 double faults per match, with 2 in the H2H.
- Combined, their H2H had 8 double faults, and Mayo's high double-fault rate persists.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 4-6 6-4Andre Ilagan#335vAidan Mayo#581Jul 21, 2025

1 total meetings

Andre Ilagan

10W 5L

7-6(6) 3-1 ret.#551Enzo Aguiard

6-7(3) 6-4 7-5#312Yasutaka Uchiyama

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#131Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#856Jason Jung

6-2 7-6(3)#417Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#817Linang Xiao

6-2 6-3#166Bu Yunchaokete

4-6 6-4 6-2#234James McCabe

6-3 6-2#862Kody Pearson

6-1 6-4—Xing Dao Chen

6-7(0) 7-5 6-4#380Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-1#219Liam Broady

6-1 3-2 ret.—Yuto Oki

7-5 6-3#363Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(9)#234James McCabe

Aidan Mayo

9W 6L

7-6(3) 7-5#290Johannus Monday

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#232Edas Butvilas

7-6(5) 6-4#223Andres Andrade

7-6(3) 6-1#358Nicolas Kicker

6-7(6) 6-1 6-3#462Quinn Vandecasteele

2-6 6-4 6-2#416Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-2 6-1#416Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-1 3-6 7-6(8)#241Luka Pavlovic

3-6 6-3 7-6(2)#490Dan Martin

7-5 2-6 6-3#316Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-2#784Michael Antonius

6-2 6-2#879Alexander Cozbinov

6-4 7-6(4)#223Andres Andrade

6-1 1-6 6-3#138Stefano Travaglia

6-0 6-4#445Bor Artnak

Andre Ilagan

Aidan Mayo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andre Ilagan

Over 2.5

Andre Ilagan

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 2.20

8.5

5.5

Head-to-Head

Andre Ilagan

Aidan Mayo