United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Timo Legout #535France0Bryce Nakashima #872United States2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Thu 17 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimo Legout · 337 places

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #535
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Bryce Nakashima

United States

Nakashima, 22, is the right-hander in this matchup; hard is listed as his preferred surface. His career-best singles ranking is No. 865, reached on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #872
Peak ranking: #865 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout's superior return game and recent form give him a moderate edge, but the odds on him to win are too short for value.

Nakashima's strong serve could keep sets close, making over 21.5 total games and over 7.5 aces interesting low-confidence plays.

Context

Legout, 22, is a French right-hander ranked 444 who has built a 26-8 hard-court record in 2026. Nakashima, 21, is an American ranked 711 with a 21-6 hard-court record this year.
Legout's 80% win rate in his last 15 matches is built largely against lower-ranked opponents, but his 62.4% games won and 55.1% total points won show consistent control. Nakashima's 73.3% win rate includes a notable win over No. 181 Ilagan, but his 40.7% return points won is below Legout's 46.5%, suggesting Legout may have an edge in return games. However, Nakashima's 5.3 aces per match and 75.9% first-serve points won give him a serving weapon that could keep sets tight.
- Legout last 15: 12-3 record, 62.4% games won, 46.5% return points won.
- Nakashima last 15: 11-4 record, 55.8% games won, 40.7% return points won.
- Nakashima beat No. 181 Ilagan 7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3) in the previous round.
- Legout's recent wins include No. 226 Henry Searle and No. 554 Daniil Ostapenkov.
Nakashima's serve is his main weapon, with 291 career aces and a 72% career first-serve points won. Legout's first-serve percentage is 60.8% in his last 15 matches.
Nakashima's higher ace count and first-serve efficiency could give him more free points, especially on a hard court. Legout's 64.5% break points saved is slightly lower than Nakashima's 65.6%, but Legout's 47.8% break points converted is much better than Nakashima's 39.2%, so Legout may be more effective when he gets chances on return.
- Nakashima last 15: 5.3 aces per match, 75.9% first-serve points won.
- Legout last 15: 1.3 aces per match, 72% first-serve points won.
- Legout break points converted: 47.8%; Nakashima: 39.2%.
Legout's return points won percentage is 46.5% in his last 15 matches, while Nakashima's is 40.7%. Legout also has a higher career return points won percentage of 44% compared to Nakashima's 38%.
Legout's stronger return game could put pressure on Nakashima's second serve, where Nakashima wins only 56.1% of points. If Legout can consistently get returns in play, he may create more break chances, especially given his 47.8% break point conversion rate.
- Legout return points won: 46.5%; Nakashima: 40.7%.
- Legout break points converted: 47.8%; Nakashima: 39.2%.
- Nakashima second-serve points won: 56.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Timo Legout

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Legout's superior recent return and overall point-winning percentages give him a moderate edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Timo Legout

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Legout's strong return game and high first-set conversion rate suggest he is likely to take the opening set against Nakashima.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Legout's superior recent return and overall point-winning percentages, combined with a higher ranking and strong hard-court form, give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: Legout 12-3 (80%) vs Nakashima 11-4 (73.3%)
- Last 15 return points won: Legout 46.5% vs Nakashima 40.7%
- Last 15 total points won: Legout 55.1% vs Nakashima 53.3%
- Career hard-court win percentage: Legout 58-? (approx 62.6% overall) vs Nakashima 50-? (approx 58.1% overall)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTimo LegoutEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' solid serving and competitive recent matches, the total games line is likely to exceed 21.5 in a closely contested Bo3.
- Legout last 15 average games per match: 17.2 (258 games / 15 matches)
- Nakashima last 15 average games per match: 20.5 (308 games / 15 matches)
- Combined average games per match: 37.7, but Bo3 matches typically have fewer games
- Both players have high hold rates: Legout 72% first serve points won, Nakashima 75.9%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Legout recent first sets: 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2, 3-4 ret., 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, 7-5 ret., 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 7-6(5)
- Nakashima recent first sets: 7-5, 6-2, 7-5, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 5-2 ret., 1-6, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-2
- Average first set games for Legout: 8.7, for Nakashima: 9.3
- Both players have a mix of lopsided and tight first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Legout's strong return game and high first-set conversion rate suggest he is likely to take the opening set against Nakashima.
- Legout first-set win conversion career: 90%
- Legout last 15 first serve points won: 72%
- Nakashima last 15 first serve points won: 75.9%
- Legout last 15 return points won: 46.5% vs Nakashima 40.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTimo LegoutEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima's high ace count (5.3 per match) combined with Legout's occasional aces makes over 7.5 total aces a plausible outcome.
- Legout last 15 aces per match: 1.3
- Nakashima last 15 aces per match: 5.3
- Combined average aces per match: 6.6
- Nakashima has a higher ace rate, likely due to his serve style
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just above 4.5, making over 4.5 a borderline but reasonable prediction.
- Legout last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Nakashima last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.6
- Both players have moderate double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Timo Legout

12W 3L

6-1 6-4#226Henry Searle 6-3 6-4#554Daniil Ostapenkov 6-1 6-4#743Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#437Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#522Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#191Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#782Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

7-5 ret.#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1#859Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-3—Donald Nikolas Stoot

7-6(5) 6-4#452Kenta Miyoshi

Bryce Nakashima

11W 4L

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#181Andre Ilagan 6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele 7-5 6-0#582Kaylan Bigun

6-2 7-6(6)—Jakub Vrba

6-2 7-6(5)—Preston Stearns

6-3 6-4#782Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-2—Tyler Bowers

6-3 7-5—Rocco Piatti

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Alexander Okonkwo

5-2 ret.#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 6-3#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4#421Karim Bennani

6-3 7-5#850Marko Miladinovic

6-4 6-2#871Theodore Dean

6-2 7-6(2)#629Aidan Kim

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Bryce NakashimaNakashimaBN

Bryce Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Timo Legout's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.8%+5.0pp55.8%

1st Serve Won72.0%+3.9pp75.9%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+2.7pp56.1%

Aces / Match1.3+4.05.3

Double Faults / Match2.50.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+5.8pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.8%+8.6pp39.2%

Break Pts Saved64.5%+1.1pp65.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.1%+1.8pp53.3%

Serve · 1–4

60.8%1st Serve In+5.0pp55.8%

72.0%1st Serve Won+3.9pp75.9%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp56.1%

1.3Aces / Match+4.05.3

2.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+5.8pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.8%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp39.2%

64.5%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp65.6%

Points · 1–0

55.1%Total Pts Won+1.8pp53.3%