United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Timo Legout #535France2Henry Searle #217United Kingdom0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 20:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHenry Searle · 318 places

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #535
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Henry Searle

United Kingdom

Searle reached a career-high No. 214 in July 2026. The British left-hander won the Dublin Challenger on grass in June 2026; no reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #217
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout's dominant hard-court form and superior return game make him the favorite against Searle, who has struggled on hard courts despite a strong serve.

The best betting angle is Legout on the moneyline at 1.80, with a 6.4-point edge. Searle's serve could keep sets close, but Legout is likely to win in straight sets.

Context

Legout, ranked 444, has built a 12-3 record on hard courts in his last 15 matches, with wins over players ranked inside the top 200. Searle, ranked 226, has lost his last three hard-court matches, including a straight-set defeat to a player ranked 622.
This contrast is the clearest form signal in the match. Legout's recent hard-court results include a retirement win over Clement Chidekh and a straight-set win over Aidan Mayo, while Searle's hard-court losses have come against lower-ranked opponents. However, Searle's overall last-15 record is still 11-4, driven by a strong grass-court run, so his hard-court slump may be surface-specific rather than a general decline.
- Legout's last 15 hard-court record is 12-3 (80% win rate).
- Searle's last 3 hard-court matches are all losses, including a 6-1 6-2 defeat to Michael Antonius (ranked 622).
- Searle's overall last-15 record is 11-4, but 11 of those wins came on grass.
Searle's first-serve points won is 77.4% overall in his last 15 matches, and he averages 6.4 aces per match. On hard courts in his last 3 matches, his first-serve points won drops to 65.2% and his aces per match to 2.7.
Searle's serve can still earn free points, but his return game is a concern on this surface. His return points won on hard courts is only 31.8% compared to 37.3% on grass, and his break point conversion is just 23.1% on hard. Legout's return points won is 46.6% overall, so he may be able to pressure Searle's second serve and create break chances.
- Searle's first-serve points won: 77.4% overall, 65.2% on hard (last 3 matches).
- Searle's return points won: 36.1% overall, 31.8% on hard.
- Searle's break point conversion: 38.8% overall, 23.1% on hard.
- Legout's return points won: 46.6% overall.
Legout has played 15 matches in the last two months, including a run to the final of a Challenger in August. His last two matches were straight-set wins, and he has not retired from a match since July.
Legout's schedule has been busy, but his recent matches have been efficient. His last two wins took under 90 minutes each, and he has not shown physical issues. This reduces the risk of fatigue affecting his performance, though the cumulative load could still be a factor in a long match.
- Legout's last two matches: 6-3 6-4 and 6-1 6-4 wins, both under 90 minutes.
- Legout's last retirement was on July 18, 2026, and he has played 8 matches since without physical issues.
- Legout's average match duration in last 15 is 94.9 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Legout's dominant recent hard-court form and superior return game outweigh Searle's higher ranking and grass success.
- Legout last 15 on hard: 12-3 record, 62.2% games won, 55.2% total points won
- Searle last 3 on hard: 0-3 record, 38.5% games won, 44.5% total points won
- Legout return points won 46.6% vs Searle 36.1% overall last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's efficient straight-set wins suggest a shorter match, but Searle's serve could extend games.
- Legout average games per match last 15: 17.3 (161 games / 15 matches)
- Searle average games per match last 15: 22.8 (342 games / 15 matches)
- Legout won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets with 12 or fewer games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's early breaks and Searle's hard-court return weakness point to a relatively short first set.
- Legout first set average games: 8.9 (last 15 matches)
- Searle first set average games: 9.7 (last 15 matches)
- Legout won first set 6-3 or 6-4 in 7 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Legout's superior hard-court form suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap, but variance is high.
- Legout average game margin last 15: +4.3 games per match
- Searle average game margin last 15: -0.9 games per match
- Legout won 6 of last 15 matches by 5+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTimo Legout -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's strong first-set record and Searle's hard-court struggles make Legout the likely set 1 winner.
- Legout first set win conversion 90% career, 80% last 15 record
- Searle first set win conversion 89% career but 0-3 in recent hard matches
- Legout won first set in 12 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Searle's big serve should produce enough aces to push the total over 7.5 even in a losing effort.
- Searle aces per match last 15: 6.4 overall, 7.3 on grass
- Legout aces per match last 15: 1.3
- Searle first serve points won 77.4% last 15
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's ability to break serve and Searle's hard-court return struggles reduce the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Legout tiebreak win pct 53% career, Searle 42% career
- Legout last 15 matches: 2 tiebreaks in 29 sets (6.9%)
- Searle last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks in 34 sets (14.7%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages slightly exceed the line, making over 4.5 a marginal lean.
- Both players average 2.3 double faults per match last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.6
- Searle double faults per match on hard last 3: 2.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Timo Legout

12W 3L

6-3 6-4#554Daniil Ostapenkov 6-1 6-4#743Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#437Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#522Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#191Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#782Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

7-5 ret.#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1#859Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-3—Donald Nikolas Stoot

7-6(5) 6-4#452Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

Henry Searle

11W 4L

6-1 6-2#622Michael Antonius

7-5 6-3#339Mees Rottgering

7-5 2-6 6-3#138Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#191Clement Chidekh

7-5 6-2#219Max Basing

6-4 7-5#298Johannus Monday

6-3 6-2#589Amit Vales

6-4 6-7(2) 6-3#539Patrick Zahraj

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#119Vilius Gaubas

6-3 6-4#152Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-2#142Jurij Rodionov

4-6 6-2 6-2#110Kyrian Jacquet

7-5 3-6 6-1#176Alexis Galarneau

6-4 7-6(3)#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#197Elias Ymer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Henry SearleSearleHS

Henry Searle carries the stronger recent form — Timo Legout's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.8%+1.0pp62.8%

1st Serve Won71.8%+5.6pp77.4%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+2.7pp56.1%

Aces / Match1.3+5.16.4

Double Faults / Match2.3—2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.6%+10.5pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.2%+7.4pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+11.8pp76.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.2%+2.7pp52.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

61.8%1st Serve In+1.0pp62.8%

71.8%1st Serve Won+5.6pp77.4%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp56.1%

1.3Aces / Match+5.16.4

2.3Double Faults / Match—2.3

Return · 1–0

46.6%Return Pts Won+10.5pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted+7.4pp38.8%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+11.8pp76.9%

Points · 1–0

55.2%Total Pts Won+2.7pp52.5%