United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Timo Legout #535France2Daniil Ostapenkov #556Belarus0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Mon 14 Sept 2026, 19:50 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimo Legout · 21 places

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #535
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

Listed at No. 556 in the supplied player data and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable public age and career-high details were not available from the required research.

Current ranking: #556
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout's stronger recent form and return game give him the edge, but Ostapenkov's big serve could keep it close.

Back Legout to win, and consider over 21.5 total games.

Context

Legout, 445th in the ATP rankings, is a right-handed French player who has been competing primarily on hard courts this season.
His 80% win rate over the last 15 matches and 61.8% games won indicate consistent baseline control. However, his first-serve percentage is only 60.9%, which could give Ostapenkov chances if he can attack the second serve.
- Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) on hard courts.
- Games won: 61.8% (162/262).
- Return points won: 46.4%.
- First serve in: 60.9%.
Ostapenkov, ranked 556th, is a right-handed Belarusian with a strong serve but inconsistent results in recent hard-court events.
His high ace count shows he can hold serve quickly, but his low return points won suggests he may struggle to break Legout's serve. If Legout maintains his return level, Ostapenkov will need to rely heavily on first-serve points.
- Aces per match: 6.5 (97 total in 15 matches).
- Return points won: 37.8% (363/961).
- First serve points won: 72.9%.
- Break points saved: 50%.
Ostapenkov has had a busy season with 25 hard-court wins, but his recent schedule has been interrupted.
The retirement against Agafonov and the month-long gap before his first-round win here suggest he may not be fully match-fit. Legout, who has played more consistently, could benefit if the match extends.
- Retired at 3-1 down vs Egor Agafonov on 2026-08-09.
- Played only one match since (win vs Gus Grumet on 2026-09-13).
- No other retirements in the last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Timo Legout

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Legout's stronger recent return and break-point resilience, combined with a better last-15 record, give him the edge in this hard-court matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Legout's stronger recent return and break-point resilience, combined with a better last-15 record, give him the edge in this hard-court matchup.
- Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) vs Ostapenkov 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 return points won: 46.4% vs 37.8%
- Last 15 break points saved: 64.6% vs 50.0%
- Recent form: Legout won 6 of last 7, Ostapenkov lost 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve at comparable rates and Ostapenkov's matches averaging over 20 games, a competitive match is likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Legout last 15 average games per match: 17.5 (262 games / 15 matches)
- Ostapenkov last 15 average games per match: 20.3 (305 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages (71.1% vs 72.9%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players in recent matches suggests the first set could be tight, with a chance of going beyond 9.5 games.
- Legout last 15 first serve points won: 71.1%
- Ostapenkov last 15 first serve points won: 72.9%
- Both players have break point save rates above 50% in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's superior return game should pressure Ostapenkov's serve early, making him more likely to take the opening set.
- Legout first set win conversion career: 90% vs Ostapenkov 93%
- Legout last 15 first serve points won: 71.1% vs Ostapenkov 72.9%
- Legout last 15 return points won: 46.4% vs Ostapenkov 37.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ostapenkov's high ace rate alone nearly covers the line, and Legout's occasional aces push the combined total over 7.5.
- Ostapenkov last 15 aces per match: 6.5
- Legout last 15 aces per match: 1.4
- Combined average aces per match: 7.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just below the line, but variance in a single match makes over 5.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Legout last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Ostapenkov last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Timo Legout

12W 3L

6-1 6-4#754Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#399Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#525Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#185Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#815Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

7-5 ret.#340Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1#861Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-3—Donald Nikolas Stoot

7-6(5) 6-4#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

7-6(5) 6-3#492Duncan Chan

Daniil Ostapenkov

9W 6L

6-2 6-2—Gus Grumet

3-1 ret.#670Egor Agafonov

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#303Florent Bax

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-6(6) 6-3#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-1#681Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-4#352Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3#360Lui Maxted

6-3 7-5—Rohan Mehra

6-3 3-6 6-3#296Carl Emil Overbeck

6-4 6-4#355Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-4—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 6-4#305Yanki Erel

6-1 7-5#587Robin Catry

6-2 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniil OstapenkovOstapenkovDO

Timo Legout carries the stronger recent form — Daniil Ostapenkov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.9%+1.7pp59.2%

1st Serve Won71.1%+1.8pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+3.5pp56.1%

Aces / Match1.4+5.16.5

Double Faults / Match2.50.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.4%+8.6pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.0%+6.8pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved64.6%+14.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.8%+3.3pp51.5%

Serve · 2–3

60.9%1st Serve In+1.7pp59.2%

71.1%1st Serve Won+1.8pp72.9%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp56.1%

1.4Aces / Match+5.16.5

2.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won+8.6pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

47.0%Break Pts Converted+6.8pp40.2%

64.6%Break Pts Saved+14.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won+3.3pp51.5%