United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Bryce Nakashima #872United States2Kaylan Bigun #548United States0

Sets 7-5 · 6-0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 22:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–260%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaylan Bigun · 324 places

Bryce Nakashima

United States

Nakashima, 22, is the right-hander in this matchup; hard is listed as his preferred surface. His career-best singles ranking is No. 865, reached on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #872
Peak ranking: #865 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Kaylan Bigun

United States

American left-hander born on 23 May 2006. Public player records list a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 507 in June 2026; no reliable source in this search established a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #548
Peak ranking: #507 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Nakashima's hot streak and hard-court consistency make him the favorite, with value on him to win the match and set 1.

Bigun's longer matches suggest over 21.5 games, but Nakashima's straight-set trend tempers that. Low-confidence leans on aces, double faults, and tiebreaks.

Context

Nakashima, 872nd, is a right-hander who has played mostly at Challenger and ITF level this season.
Nakashima's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches is better than Bigun's 60%, but his recent wins have come against unranked or lower-ranked players. Bigun has faced slightly stronger opposition, including a win over No. 647 Naoya Honda. This suggests Nakashima's form may be inflated by weaker opponents, so the edge is not as clear as the record suggests.
- Nakashima last 15: 11-4 record (73.3%), Bigun last 15: 9-6 record (60%).
- Nakashima's recent wins include opponents ranked 815, 864, 848, 575, 772, 863, and several unranked players.
- Bigun's recent wins include opponents ranked 686, 777, 647, 805, and several unranked players.
Nakashima and Bigun meet in the first qualifying round at Tiburon, a hard-court event.
The match is on hard court, which suits both players' recent form. The winner advances in qualifying, so the stakes are clear but the surface itself is not a differentiator.
- The current match listing identifies Nakashima v Bigun as Qualification - 1. round at Tiburon on hard court.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 15:21 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorer match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 13 Sep 2026
Bigun, 586th, is a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a career first-serve percentage of 57%.
Bigun's first-serve percentage of 61.3% in his last 15 matches is higher than Nakashima's 55.1%, and his first-serve points won (75.4%) is nearly identical to Nakashima's 75.9%. However, Bigun averages 3.6 double faults per match compared to Nakashima's 1.8, which could give Nakashima more free points on return.
- Bigun first-serve in: 61.3% (573/935), Nakashima first-serve in: 55.1% (461/837).
- Bigun first-serve points won: 75.4%, Nakashima first-serve points won: 75.9%.
- Bigun double faults per match: 3.6, Nakashima double faults per match: 1.8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Nakashima's superior recent form and hard-court consistency give him a clear edge in this qualifying match.
- Last 15 overall record: Nakashima 11-4 (73.3%) vs Bigun 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Nakashima 11-4 vs Bigun 9-6
- Nakashima has won 5 straight matches, all on hard court, including a title run
- Bigun has lost 3 of his last 5 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBryce NakashimaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing the total games over the line.
- Nakashima last 15 average games per match: 19.3
- Bigun last 15 average games per match: 22.3
- Bigun's last 5 matches averaged 23.6 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Nakashima's strong first-set record and recent fast starts make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Nakashima first-set win conversion career: 93%
- Nakashima won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
- Bigun lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBryce NakashimaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun's high double fault rate pushes the combined total close to the over line.
- Nakashima averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Bigun averages 3.6 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players serve at similar ace rates, making over 8.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Nakashima averages 4.9 aces per match in last 15
- Bigun averages 4.9 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 9.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Bryce Nakashima

11W 4L

6-2 7-6(6)—Jakub Vrba

6-2 7-6(5)—Preston Stearns

6-3 6-4#815Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-2—Tyler Bowers

6-3 7-5—Rocco Piatti

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Alexander Okonkwo

5-2 ret.#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 6-3#340Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4#452Karim Bennani

6-3 7-5#848Marko Miladinovic

6-4 6-2#873Theodore Dean

6-2 7-6(2)#575Aidan Kim

6-3 6-4#772Noah Zamora

6-3 6-2#863Maxwell Exsted

6-3 6-4—Nav Dayal

Kaylan Bigun

9W 6L

2-6 6-3 6-3#697Keshav Chopra

6-1 7-6(4)#686Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-1 6-4#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-3 6-2#647Naoya Honda

4-6 6-3 6-2—Sam Landau

6-4 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-5#608Millen Hurrion

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#712Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-4 6-1#759Vignesh Gogineni

6-1 7-5#805Andrew Johnson

6-4 6-4—Alexander Rozin

6-3 6-4—Gus Grumet

7-6(2) 6-3—Jerry Roddick

6-1 6-1—Volodymyr Gurenko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BNBryce NakashimaNakashima

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Kaylan BigunBigunKB

Bryce Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Kaylan Bigun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.1%+6.2pp61.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.9%—75.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1558.5%+7.9pp50.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.9—4.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.81.8 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.8%+2.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.5%—42.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1567.9%+5.7pp62.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.9%+1.7pp52.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

55.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.2pp61.3%

75.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—75.4%

58.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp50.6%

4.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—4.9

1.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

42.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—42.0%

67.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp62.2%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp52.2%