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Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia1Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus2

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 2-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 242 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivashka's superior return and second-serve stats on hard courts give him a slight edge over Tomic.

The match is expected to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak likely. Ivashka is favored to win, but the betting value is limited at current odds.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former world No. 17 now ranked 179, while Ivashka, 32, reached No. 40 in 2022 and is currently 393rd.
Their identical 11-4 records over the last 15 hard-court matches suggest a level baseline. Tomic has a slightly better sets-won percentage (66.7% vs 63.9%), but Ivashka has won a higher share of games (57.2% vs 53.6%). This points to a competitive match where neither player has a decisive recent form advantage.
- Tomic: 11-4 record, 66.7% sets won, 53.6% games won in last 15 hard-court matches.
- Ivashka: 11-4 record, 63.9% sets won, 57.2% games won in last 15 hard-court matches.
Ivashka's return points won percentage is above the tour average, and Tomic's first-serve percentage is 63.1%.
Ivashka's stronger return numbers may give him more break opportunities, especially against Tomic's second serve, where Tomic wins only 49.9% of points. However, Tomic saves 58% of break points, so Ivashka will need to convert efficiently.
- Ivashka: 40.9% return points won in last 15 matches.
- Tomic: 38.4% return points won and 49.9% second-serve points won in last 15 matches.
- Tomic: 58% break points saved in last 15 matches.
The two players have met only once, at a grass-court event in 2019.
That result has limited relevance to this hard-court Challenger match. Ivashka's straight-set win may offer a small psychological edge, but the surface and long gap reduce its predictive value.
- 2019 grass-court match: Ivashka won 6-2 7-6(5).
- No other head-to-head meetings recorded.
Tomic, 33, is ranked No. 179 and has won 3 of his last 5 matches.
He said after winning the Lincoln Challenger on 20 July that he had considered ending his career in 2026 but would reassess. That decision does not change his preparation for this match.
- Tomic described recent retirement thoughts during the 20 July Lincoln title ceremony and said the title prompted him to reconsider.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 03:12 · Europe/BucharestATP Tourwww.atptour.com · 20 Jul 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Ivashka's stronger recent return and second-serve numbers on hard courts give him a slight edge over Tomic in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Ivashka's stronger recent return and second-serve numbers on hard courts give him a slight edge over Tomic in this Bo3 match.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 57.2% games won, 53.5% total points won
- Tomic last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 53.6% games won, 51.6% total points won
- Ivashka return points won 40.9% vs Tomic 38.4% in last 15
- Ivashka second serve points won 55.0% vs Tomic 49.9% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and similar form point to a competitive Bo3 that likely exceeds 21.5 total games.
- Tomic last 15 average 24.0 games per match (360 games / 15 matches)
- Ivashka last 15 average 22.6 games per match (339 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have 73.3% win rate in last 15, suggesting competitive matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set averages for both players are near 9.5, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean in a tight matchup.
- Tomic last 15 first set average 9.7 games (145 games / 15 sets)
- Ivashka last 15 first set average 9.5 games (142 games / 15 sets)
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's slightly better serve and return efficiency in recent hard-court matches supports a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Ivashka first set win conversion career 87% vs Tomic 85%
- Ivashka last 15 first serve points won 75.5% vs Tomic 74.0%
- Ivashka last 15 return points won 40.9% vs Tomic 38.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' tiebreak history make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Tomic career tiebreak win percentage 57%
- Ivashka career tiebreak win percentage 49%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates from recent hard-court matches suggest a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely than not.
- Tomic last 15 aces per match 6.1
- Ivashka last 15 aces per match 4.4
- Combined average aces per match 10.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are near the 5.5 line, making over a coin-flip lean.
- Tomic last 15 double faults per match 2.4
- Ivashka last 15 double faults per match 3.5
- Combined average double faults per match 5.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Ilya Ivashka has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ilya Ivashka has fulfilled 10 of 13 win predictions (77%). The average estimated probability was 68.7%, with an expected 8.9 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectation by 1.1 wins. All three misses came as losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating that when he fails, he tends to lose outright.

Recent evidence for Ilya Ivashka13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Gonzalo Villanueva won

Missed

19 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

62%probability

Chris Rodesch won

Missed

18 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

17 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

16 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 7-6(5)Bernard Tomic#179vIlya Ivashka#393Jul 15, 2019

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#331Akira Santillan 7-5 7-6(3)#486Kasidit Samrej 6-4 3-6 6-4#398Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#139Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#344Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#35Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#50Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#472Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#182Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#152Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#451Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#770Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#246James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#245Darwin Blanch

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#268Yu Hsiou Hsu 7-6(5) 6-4#275Ilia Simakin 6-4 4-6 6-1#331Akira Santillan 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#248Yi Zhou 7-6(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#818Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#321Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#151Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#355Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#281Dan Added

6-1 6-0#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#489Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#603Iliyan Radulov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Bernard Tomic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.1%+3.4pp59.7%

1st Serve Won74.0%+1.5pp75.5%

2nd Serve Won49.9%+5.1pp55.0%

Aces / Match6.1+1.74.4

Double Faults / Match2.41.1 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.4%+2.5pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.9%+0.8pp42.7%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+5.4pp52.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.9pp53.5%

Serve · 3–2

63.1%1st Serve In+3.4pp59.7%

74.0%1st Serve Won+1.5pp75.5%

49.9%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp55.0%

6.1Aces / Match+1.74.4

2.4Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

38.4%Return Pts Won+2.5pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

41.9%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp42.7%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+5.4pp52.6%

Points · 0–1

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.9pp53.5%