SpainPozoblanco - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Dan Added #243France1Ilya Ivashka #554Belarus2

Sets 7-6 · 1-6 · 3-6Fri 17 Jul 2026, 17:11 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDan Added · 311 places

Dan Added

France

Career-high singles ranking No. 194 came on 2025-11-17. Public profile data does not state an official preferred surface, but his published finals-by-surface record is weighted toward hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #194 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Former ATP No. 40, reached on 2022-06-20. Public sources describe a 2023-2025 loss-of-form and hiatus period, and he has arrived here ranked well below his peak while putting together a qualifier run.

Current ranking: #554
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Jul 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilya Ivashka is in dominant form, 4-0 on site without dropping a set, while Dan Added has labored through two three-set matches.

Ivashka’s superior hard-court stats—63.4% games won, 44.9% return points won—and Added’s fatigue make Ivashka a strong favorite. Best bets: Ivashka 2-0 (2.6-point edge) and Ivashka -3.5 games, with under 21.5 total games also appealing.

Context

Ivashka beat Aziz Ouakaa 6-1 6-0 in 50 minutes in the last round.
- He has not lost a set in four matches, including a retirement win over Maximus Jones.
- His last-15 hard-court record is 12-3, with 78.8% sets won and 63.4% games won.
Added beat Antoine Ghibaudo 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 in 2:48 on July 16.
- His previous match against Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong went 6-4 7-6(5), adding over two hours.
- Ivashka's average match duration in his last 15 is 84.7 minutes, compared to Added's 115.3.
Ivashka's return points won percentage is 44.9% over his last 15 hard-court matches.
- Added's return points won is only 40.8% in the same span.
- Ivashka converts 46.4% of break points, while Added saves only 65.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Ivashka's superior recent hard-court form, dominant return and second-serve numbers, and fresh on-site dominance give him a clear edge over Added, who has shown vulnerability in longer matches.
- Ivashka last 15: 12-3 (80%) record, 78.8% sets won, 63.4% games won on hard.
- Added last 15: 10-5 (66.7%) record, 62.9% sets won, 53.5% games won on hard.
- Ivashka return points won 44.9% vs Added 40.8% in last 15; Ivashka second serve points won 59.2% vs Added 49.6%.
- Ivashka 4-0 on site this week with dominant scorelines; Added had two tight three-set matches totaling ~5 hours.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's ability to break early and hold serve consistently suggests a first set with fewer than 9.5 games.
- Ivashka's last 15 first-set average: 9.2 games; median 9 games.
- Added's last 15 first-set average: 9.5 games; but against stronger servers, sets are shorter.
- Ivashka's first-set scores this week: 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 (all under 9.5 except one push).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's ability to win efficiently and limit opponent games, combined with Added's potential fatigue, points to a match finishing under 21.5 games.
- Ivashka's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 19.1 total games per match.
- Added's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 22.7 total games, but Ivashka's dominance lowers expected total.
- Ivashka's last four matches: 12, 9, 12, 12 games won; opponents won 1, 3, 8, 7 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's consistent second-set performance and Added's fatigue risk make an under 9.5 games in set two likely.
- Ivashka's second-set average last 15: 8.9 games; Added's: 9.3 games.
- Ivashka won second set 6-0, 3-1 ret., 6-4, 6-3 this week.
- Added's second sets this week: 7-6, 3-6, indicating potential drop-off.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins supports a -3.5 game handicap cover.
- Ivashka's average game margin last 15: +4.1 games per match.
- Added's average game margin last 15: +0.4 games per match.
- Ivashka covered -3.5 in 9 of last 15 matches (60%).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIlya Ivashka -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Ivashka's strong start trend and Added's occasional slow starts make Ivashka the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Ivashka won first set in 13 of last 15 matches (86.7%).
- Added won first set in 9 of last 15 matches (60%).
- Ivashka's first-set dominance this week: 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIlya IvashkaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Ivashka's efficiency and Added's recent struggles to close in straight sets suggest a higher likelihood of a 2-0 victory for Ivashka.
- Ivashka won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets, including all four this week.
- Added dropped a set in 5 of last 15 matches, including his last two this tournament.
- Ivashka's average match duration last 15: 84.7 min vs Added's 115.3 min, indicating quicker wins.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostIlya Ivashka 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's strong hold/break profile makes tiebreaks less probable, as he tends to win sets by multiple breaks.
- Ivashka played tiebreaks in only 2 of last 15 matches (13.3%).
- Added played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches (33.3%).
- Ivashka's dominance in games won percentage (63.4%) reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average sits below 5.5, and Ivashka's control should keep errors low.
- Ivashka averages 2.8 double faults per match last 15; Added 2.0.
- Combined average: 4.8 double faults.
- Both players have moderate double fault rates, unlikely to spike in a controlled match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of hitting aces on hard court, the combined total is likely to exceed 7.5, though Ivashka's dominance could limit total games and aces.
- Ivashka averages 5.5 aces per match last 15; Added 4.3.
- Combined average: 9.8 aces per match.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages above 71%, indicating ace potential.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Dan Added

10W 5L

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3#359Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 7-6(5)#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#235Oliver Crawford

7-5 6-2#871Isaac Becroft

6-4 7-5—Manel Lazaro Juncadella

6-0 6-3—Daniel Lara Salmeron

3-6 6-3 6-2#449Laurent Lokoli

6-2 6-4#1765Luc Fomba

6-2 6-3#577Robin Catry

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-2—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

6-4 2-6 6-4—Hugo Car

6-2 6-4#116Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-3#453Niels Visker

6-3 6-7(8) 6-1#733Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-0 6-1—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

Ilya Ivashka

12W 3L

6-1 6-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#419Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#645Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

3-6 6-3 6-4#589Pablo Martinez Gomez

7-6(5) 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(0) 4-6 6-4#285Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#332Hamish Stewart

6-1 6-2#416Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-1 6-1#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-2#628S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 6-4#204Keegan Smith

6-3 6-3#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-1 6-2#562Kokoro Isomura

6-2 6-0#580Kuan-Yi Lee

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DADan AddedAdded

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Dan Added's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In56.0%+7.0pp63.0%

1st Serve Won71.6%+7.9pp79.5%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+9.6pp59.2%

Aces / Match4.3+1.25.5

Double Faults / Match2.00.8 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.8%+4.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.3%+1.1pp46.4%

Break Pts Saved65.2%+5.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+6.3pp57.6%

Serve · 1–4

56.0%1st Serve In+7.0pp63.0%

71.6%1st Serve Won+7.9pp79.5%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+9.6pp59.2%

4.3Aces / Match+1.25.5

2.0Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

40.8%Return Pts Won+4.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

45.3%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp46.4%

65.2%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+6.3pp57.6%

Dan Added

Ilya Ivashka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka 2-0

Ilya Ivashka

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Dan Added

Ilya Ivashka

Stat Battle