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Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia0Kasidit Samrej #406Thailand2

Sets 5-7 · 6-7Thu 3 Sept 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 246 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied match data was limited. Structured data identifies him as a 191 cm right-hander ranked No. 406.

Current ranking: #406
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic is the clear favorite based on ranking and recent hard-court form, but his odds of 1.30 offer no value.

Better betting angles include over 21.5 total games and over 11.5 total aces, as both players have been involved in high-scoring matches with strong serving.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former world No. 17 now ranked 179 and has played mostly Challenger events this season. Samrej, 24, is ranked 486 and has spent his career primarily on hard courts.
Tomic's recent hard-court record of 10-3 includes wins over Karen Khachanov and Mark Lajal, showing he can beat higher-ranked players. Samrej's 8-7 record in the same window includes losses to players ranked outside the top 500, suggesting he is less reliable against stronger opposition. This form gap gives Tomic a clear edge, but Samrej's ability to win close matches keeps the outcome uncertain.
- Tomic's last 15 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 3 losses (76.9% win rate).
- Samrej's last 15 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Tomic beat No. 50 Khachanov and No. 152 Lajal in July; Samrej lost to No. 881 Pleshivtsev and No. 733 Shebekin in the same period.
Samrej's second serve has been a weakness, winning only 45.3% of points on it in his last 15 matches.
Tomic converts 42.6% of break points and wins 38.5% of return points, so Samrej's serving struggles could be costly. However, Tomic's own second-serve points won is only 50.8%, so the match may feature several breaks. Samrej's high double-fault count is a concrete liability that Tomic can exploit.
- Samrej's last 15 matches: 92 double faults, 6.1 per match.
- Tomic's last 15 matches: 41 double faults, 2.7 per match.
- Samrej's second-serve points won: 45.3%; Tomic's return points won: 38.5%.
Tomic retired at 1-3 against Tristan Boyer on July 21, 2026, but returned to competition within a week.
Since the retirement, Tomic has completed five matches without another retirement, including a three-set win on September 1. This indicates the physical issue was likely minor and not a current concern. However, his long Challenger schedule could still lead to fatigue in a best-of-three match.
- Tomic retired against Boyer on 2026-07-21 at 1-3.
- He has played five full matches since, with no further retirements.
- His most recent match on 2026-09-01 was a three-set win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior recent form and hard-court record give him a clear edge over Samrej.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Tomic's superior recent form and hard-court record give him a clear edge over Samrej.
- Tomic last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Samrej 8-7 (53.3%)
- Tomic last 15 hard record 10-3 (76.9%), Samrej 8-7 (53.3%)
- Tomic ranking 179 vs Samrej 486
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, suggesting a competitive total.
- Tomic last 15 average games per match 24.0 (360 games / 15 matches)
- Samrej last 15 average games per match 23.8 (357 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 10 games, making over 9.5 plausible.
- Tomic last 15 first set average 9.6 games (144 games / 15 matches)
- Samrej last 15 first set average 9.5 games (142 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played several tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's slightly better serve and return numbers in recent matches support taking the opening set.
- Tomic first set win conversion career 85%
- Tomic last 15 first serve points won 73.9% vs Samrej 72.8%
- Tomic last 15 return points won 38.5% vs Samrej 37.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 5 aces per match, supporting a combined total over 11.5.
- Tomic last 15 aces per match 5.7
- Samrej last 15 aces per match 6.2
- Combined average aces per match 11.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above 8.5.
- Tomic last 15 double faults per match 2.7
- Samrej last 15 double faults per match 6.1
- Combined average double faults per match 8.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong tiebreak records and recent matches have featured tiebreaks.
- Tomic career tiebreak win percentage 57%
- Samrej career tiebreak win percentage 58%
- Both players have multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

11W 4L

6-4 3-6 6-4#398Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#139Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#344Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#35Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#50Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#472Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#182Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#152Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#451Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#770Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#246James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#245Darwin Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-2#93Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#216Braden Shick

Kasidit Samrej

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(2)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 6-2—Yan Cheng Chen

6-3 6-2—Kai-I Wang

6-4 7-6(5)#664Yuki Mochizuki

6-2 3-6 6-1#567Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-4#295Sergey Fomin

5-7 6-0 6-4#539Kokoro Isomura

3-6 7-5 6-3#881Egor Pleshivtsev

6-4 2-6 6-3#733Grigory Shebekin

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(3)—Riku Takahata

7-6(4) 6-4#877Makoto Ochi

6-3 6-2—Riku Takahata

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4#528Sanhui Shin

4-6 6-1 7-6(6)#851Shintaro Imai

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Kasidit SamrejSamrejKS

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Kasidit Samrej's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In62.0%+2.2pp59.8%

1st Serve Won73.9%+1.1pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won50.8%+5.5pp45.3%

Aces / Match5.7+0.56.2

Double Faults / Match2.73.4 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.5%+0.8pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.6%+3.0pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved59.3%+8.8pp68.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.4pp50.3%

Serve · 4–1

62.0%1st Serve In+2.2pp59.8%

73.9%1st Serve Won+1.1pp72.8%

50.8%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp45.3%

5.7Aces / Match+0.56.2

2.7Double Faults / Match3.4 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

38.5%Return Pts Won+0.8pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

42.6%Break Pts Converted+3.0pp39.6%

59.3%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp68.1%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.4pp50.3%