Tiago Pereira #379Portugal11 – 2Ilya Ivashka #554Belarus2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38

The read

Ivashka's dominant hard-court form (12-3, 62.3% games won) and superior serve/return numbers give him a clear edge over Pereira, despite the extra match load.

• Ivashka last 15: 12-3 record, 76.5% sets won, 62.3% games won on hard
• Pereira last 15: 9-6 record, 56.4% sets won, 52.6% games won on hard
• Ivashka first serve points won 78.5% vs Pereira 70% in last 15 on hard
• Ivashka return points won 44.2% vs Pereira 38.9% in last 15 on hard

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pereira's recent hard-court matches have been tight, and Ivashka's fatigue may prevent a blowout, making +3.5 games for Pereira a solid cover.

• Pereira last 5 hard matches: lost by more than 3.5 games only once
• Ivashka last 5 hard matches: won by more than 3.5 games in 3 of 5, but against weaker opponents
• Pereira's competitive losses suggest he can keep it close

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pereira's grinding style and recent three-set battles, combined with Ivashka's potential fatigue, point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Pereira last 5 hard matches: average 22.6 games per match
• Ivashka last 5 hard matches: average 19.4 games per match, but 3 were blowouts
• Both players have played multiple three-setters this tournament
• Pereira's matches tend to be longer (avg 119.7 min last 15)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Pereira's tendency for close first sets and Ivashka's occasional slow starts point to over 9.5 games in the opener.

• Pereira last 5 hard matches: first set average 10.2 games
• Ivashka last 5 hard matches: first set average 8.8 games, but 3 were 6-1 or 6-2
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion, suggesting tight starts

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38

The read

Ivashka's strong start trend (4 of last 5 first sets won) and high career first-set conversion rate suggest he will take the opener.

• Ivashka first set win conversion career 87%
• Pereira first set win conversion career 85%
• Ivashka last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5, all on hard
• Pereira last 5 matches: won first set in 3 of 5 on hard

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's high ace rate (5.6 per match) and Pereira's decent serving (3.4) make over 8.5 aces likely in a competitive match.

• Ivashka aces per match last 15: 5.6 on hard
• Pereira aces per match last 15: 3.4 on hard
• Combined average aces per match: 9.0
• Ivashka height 193cm aids serve power

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 3 double faults per match, so over 4.5 is probable given their combined rates.

• Ivashka double faults per match last 15: 2.9 on hard
• Pereira double faults per match last 15: 3.1 on hard
• Combined average double faults: 6.0
• Both players have moderate second-serve aggression