ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ilia Simakin #269Russia2Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Fri 4 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlia Simakin · 133 places

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivashka's superior return game and tour-level experience give him a slight edge over the in-form Simakin, making him a value bet at 2.00.

Expect a tight, serve-dominated match with over 21.5 total games and a likely tiebreak. Simakin +2.5 games is a solid alternative given his strong hard-court record.

Context

Ivashka, 32, is a former top-50 player now ranked 393 and rebuilding on the Challenger tour. Simakin, 24, is ranked 275 and has spent most of his career on hard courts.
Ivashka's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches, all on hard, is backed by a 57.1% games-won percentage and a 41.1% return-points-won rate. Simakin's 85.7% hard-court record in his last 7 matches is strong but comes from a smaller sample, and his overall last-15 record is only 60% because of a poor clay stretch. Ivashka's recent level appears more consistent, but Simakin's current hard-court run cannot be dismissed.
- Ivashka last 15 overall: 11-4 (73.3%), all on hard courts.
- Ivashka last 15 hard: 57.1% games won, 41.1% return points won.
- Simakin last 15 overall: 9-6 (60%), but 6-1 (85.7%) on hard in last 7.
- Simakin's last 15 includes 8 clay matches where he went 3-5.
Ivashka's return-points-won rate of 41.1% in his last 15 matches is above the tour average for Challenger level. Simakin's second-serve points won is 53.4% in the same window.
If Ivashka can attack Simakin's second serve, he may create break chances. Simakin's break-point save rate is 59.3%, which is decent but not elite. Ivashka's return strength is a clear edge in this matchup, though Simakin's first serve is effective at 71.5% points won.
- Ivashka return points won: 41.1% (last 15).
- Simakin second serve points won: 53.4% (last 15).
- Simakin break points saved: 59.3% (last 15).
Simakin's recent hard-court wins include victories over Matthew Dellavedova (293), Denis Yevseyev (444), and others ranked below 300. Ivashka's wins this week include Akira Santillan (331) and Yi Zhou (248).
Simakin's form is solid, but the quality of opposition in his hard-court wins is lower than Ivashka's recent opponents. Ivashka's win over Yi Zhou, ranked 248, is a stronger result than any of Simakin's recent wins. This suggests Ivashka's form may be more battle-tested.
- Simakin's last 7 hard-court opponents: rankings 293, 444, 343, 356, 303, 323, 500.
- Ivashka's last two wins: over Santillan (331) and Zhou (248).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Ivashka's recent hard-court form is strong and his return game slightly edges Simakin's, while Simakin's hot streak has come against lower-ranked opposition.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 57.1% games won, 41.1% return points won
- Simakin last 15 on hard: 6-1 record, 57.6% games won, 39.8% return points won
- Ivashka career hard-court win rate 59.7% vs Simakin 65.6% overall, but Ivashka has far more tour-level experience
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIlya IvashkaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are competitive and have shown a tendency for longer matches, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Simakin last 15 average 21.7 games per match, Ivashka 23.0
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
- Ivashka's last two matches went 3 sets with 27 and 31 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's strong hard-court form and Ivashka's tendency for tight matches make the +2.5 game handicap a solid play.
- Simakin has won 6 of last 7 hard-court matches
- Ivashka's recent wins have often been close (e.g., 7-6, 6-4)
- Simakin's hard-court games won percentage is 57.6%, nearly equal to Ivashka's 57.1%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIlia Simakin +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players tend to be tight, with both holding serve well early.
- Simakin first set average 9.3 games, Ivashka 9.7
- Ivashka's last 5 first sets: 10, 9, 13, 10, 10 games
- Both players have strong first-serve numbers, suggesting fewer breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's superior first-serve effectiveness and recent first-set success give him a slight edge to start the match.
- Ivashka first-set win conversion career 87%, Simakin 91%
- Ivashka last 15 first serve points won 74.9%, Simakin 71.5%
- Ivashka has won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIlya IvashkaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be closely contested, increasing the chance of a deciding set.
- Ivashka's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters
- Simakin's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters
- Both players have similar competitive profiles
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players suggest a total above 10.5 aces is likely.
- Simakin averages 8.3 aces per match on hard, Ivashka 4.3
- Combined average aces per match = 12.6
- Both are tall players (193 cm) with strong serves
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are right at the line, making over 6.5 a reasonable lean.
- Simakin averages 3.0 double faults per match on hard, Ivashka 3.6
- Combined average double faults = 6.6
- Both players have similar double fault rates in recent matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the match and both players' tiebreak history suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Simakin tiebreak win rate 53%, Ivashka 49%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Ivashka's last 5 matches include 3 tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Ilya Ivashka has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ilya Ivashka has fulfilled 10 of 13 recent win projections, a 77% success rate. His average estimated probability was 68.7%, with an expected 8.9 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. All three misses came as losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating clear outcomes when he fails to deliver.

Recent evidence for Ilya Ivashka13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Gonzalo Villanueva won

Missed

19 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

62%probability

Chris Rodesch won

Missed

18 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

17 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

16 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ilia Simakin

9W 6L

7-5 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova 6-1 6-2#444Denis Yevseyev

5-7 6-2 6-3#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#303Florent Bax

6-3 7-6(4)#323Fajing Sun

5-7 6-3 6-4#500Adrian Boitan

7-5 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#144Tomas Barrios Vera

3-6 6-4 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#572Maxime Janvier

4-6 6-1 6-2#766Radu David Turcanu

6-4 4-6 6-2#341Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#388Jacopo Vasami

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-4 4-6 6-1#331Akira Santillan 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#248Yi Zhou 7-6(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#818Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#321Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#151Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#355Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#281Dan Added

6-1 6-0#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#489Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#603Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

3-6 6-3 6-4#666Pablo Martinez Gomez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIlia SimakinSimakin

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Ilia Simakin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.1%+2.4pp58.7%

1st Serve Won71.5%+3.4pp74.9%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+3.4pp56.8%

Aces / Match7.2+2.94.3

Double Faults / Match3.30.3 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+2.3pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.4%+6.1pp42.5%

Break Pts Saved59.3%+9.3pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+2.3pp53.6%

Serve · 3–2

61.1%1st Serve In+2.4pp58.7%

71.5%1st Serve Won+3.4pp74.9%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp56.8%

7.2Aces / Match+2.94.3

3.3Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+2.3pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.4%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp42.5%

59.3%Break Pts Saved+9.3pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+2.3pp53.6%