ChinaShanghai - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus2Yu Hsiou Hsu #297Taiwan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 8 Sept 2026, 10:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYu Hsiou Hsu · 105 places

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

Reached a career-high No. 158 on 16 October 2023. Hard courts are listed as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #158 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivashka's superior recent hard-court form and serve dominance give him a slight edge over Hsu despite the ranking gap.

Back Ivashka to win at 1.90 (58% model probability) and consider over 21.5 total games.

Context

Ivashka, 32, is a former top-50 player now ranked 393 and rebuilding on the Challenger tour.
His 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches, all on hard courts, shows he is comfortable on this surface. He wins 75% of first-serve points and 54.8% of second-serve points, which should give him an edge in baseline rallies. However, his first-serve percentage is only 59.8%, leaving room for Hsu to attack.
- Ivashka's last 15 matches: 11 wins, 4 losses, all on hard courts.
- First-serve points won: 75%; second-serve points won: 54.8%.
- First-serve in percentage: 59.8%.
Hsu, 27, is ranked 268 and has a career win percentage of 62.2% on hard courts.
Hsu's recent hard-court record is 8-4, and he saves 64.3% of break points, which could frustrate Ivashka's return game. His first-serve percentage is 64.4%, slightly better than Ivashka's, but he wins fewer first-serve points (69.4%). This suggests a close match where both players will rely on holding serve.
- Hsu's last 12 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 4 losses.
- Break points saved on hard courts: 64.3%.
- First-serve in: 64.4%; first-serve points won: 69.4%.
Ivashka reached the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Challenger last week, playing three matches.
Ivashka's last match was a straight-set loss on September 4, giving him three days of rest before this match. Hsu's last match was a retirement win on September 1, so he has had more rest. However, Ivashka's extra match play could mean he is more match-tough, while Hsu may be fresher.
- Ivashka played on Sep 1, 3, and 4; Hsu played on Sep 1 and 2.
- Ivashka's last match was a loss; Hsu's last match was a retirement win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Ivashka's superior recent hard-court win rate and points dominance give him a slight edge despite lower ranking.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 57.1% games won, 53.3% total points won
- Hsu last 15 on hard: 8-4 record, 55.5% games won, 52.7% total points won
- Ivashka ranking 393 vs Hsu 268, but Ivashka has stronger recent hard-court form
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive serve and return profiles with solid break point saving suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Ivashka average match duration 101.4 min, Hsu 107.8 min
- Ivashka games per match average 22.7, Hsu 19.8
- Both players have high break point save rates (Ivashka 54.2%, Hsu 63.1%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets with tiebreak potential make over 9.5 games likely.
- Ivashka first set average games 9.9, Hsu 9.4
- Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50% (Ivashka 49%, Hsu 55%)
- Recent matches show several 7-6 or 7-5 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's stronger first-serve and return numbers in recent matches suggest a slight first-set advantage.
- Ivashka first set win conversion career 87%, Hsu 93%
- Ivashka first serve points won 75% last 15, Hsu 70.3%
- Ivashka return points won 40.6%, Hsu 38.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar tiebreak abilities make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Ivashka tiebreak win rate 49%, Hsu 55%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- First set total games over 9.5 suggests tiebreak potential
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates slightly exceed the 7.5 line, though variance is high.
- Ivashka averages 4.5 aces per match last 15, Hsu 3.1
- Combined average aces per match 7.6
- Both players have first serve percentages around 60-64%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates hover around the line, making over 5.5 a coin flip.
- Ivashka averages 3.5 double faults per match, Hsu 2.2
- Combined average double faults 5.7
- Ivashka's second serve points won 54.8%, Hsu 52.2%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Ilya Ivashka has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ilya Ivashka has fulfilled 10 of 13 recent win projections, a 77% success rate. The average estimated probability was 68.7%, with an expected 8.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual wins exceeded expectation. All three misses were losses, and the current 58% probability sits within the historical range of 58–78%.

Recent evidence for Ilya Ivashka13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Gonzalo Villanueva won

Missed

19 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

62%probability

Chris Rodesch won

Missed

18 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

17 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

16 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

7-6(5) 6-4#275Ilia Simakin 6-4 4-6 6-1#331Akira Santillan 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#248Yi Zhou 7-6(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#818Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#321Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#151Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#355Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#281Dan Added

6-1 6-0#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#489Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#603Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

Yu Hsiou Hsu

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#464James Kent Trotter 7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#204Elias Ymer

6-3 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 6-1#398Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-2#764Ryuki Matsuda

6-2 7-6(5)—Kuan-Shou Chen

7-6(5) 6-3—Kai-I Wang

3-6 6-1 6-2#731Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4#173Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-6(5)#110Toby Samuel

6-3 6-3#340Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 7-6(3)#227Henry Searle

7-6(3) 4-1 ret.#152Mark Lajal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIlya IvashkaIvashka

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Yu Hsiou HsuHsuYH

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Yu Hsiou Hsu's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.8%+4.4pp64.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.0%+4.7pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.8%+2.6pp52.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.5+1.43.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.51.3 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.6%+1.7pp38.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.7%+1.6pp44.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1554.2%+8.9pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.3%+1.8pp51.5%

Serve · 3–2

59.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp64.2%

75.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp70.3%

54.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp52.2%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.43.1

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

40.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp38.9%

Pressure · 0–2

42.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp44.3%

54.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.9pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp51.5%