ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaRET

Predictions graded

Yu Hsiou Hsu #297Taiwan1Elias Ymer #212Sweden0

Sets 7-6 · 5-5Tue 1 Sept 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–0100%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 85 places

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

Reached a career-high No. 158 on 16 October 2023. Hard courts are listed as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #158 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Hsu's strong hard-court form and 2023 H2H win give him a clear edge over Ymer, who has struggled recently.

The match is likely to feature a moderate number of aces and double faults, with a possible tiebreak. Back Hsu if odds improve, but current lines offer little value.

Context

Hsu, 27, is ranked 297 and has built his career on hard courts, with 301 of his 345 career wins on the surface. Ymer, 30, is ranked 204 but has been less consistent on hard courts recently.
Hsu's recent hard-court sample shows a 70% win rate and a 53% total points won, while Ymer's is 33.3% and 46.6%. Hsu also converts break points at 49.1% on hard courts compared to Ymer's 50%, but Ymer's first-serve percentage drops to 52.7% on hard, which could give Hsu more return opportunities.
- Hsu last 10 hard-court matches: 7-3 record, 53% total points won.
- Ymer last 6 hard-court matches: 2-4 record, 46.6% total points won.
- Hsu's hard-court break point conversion is 49.1% vs Ymer's 50%.
- Ymer's first-serve percentage on hard is 52.7%, below his overall 58.9%.
The two players met once before, in January 2023 on hard court, with Hsu winning 7-6(4), 7-6(4).
Hsu's win came in two tiebreaks, showing he can handle pressure moments against Ymer. However, that match is over three years old, so its predictive value is limited, but it does suggest Hsu is comfortable in this matchup.
- H2H: Hsu leads 1-0, winning 7-6(4), 7-6(4) on hard court in 2023.
- Both players had similar first-serve percentages (61% vs 63%) and aces (12 each) in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yu Hsiou Hsu

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Hsu's strong recent hard-court form and head-to-head edge give him a slight advantage, but the odds are close to fair.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yu Hsiou Hsu

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Hsu's strong recent hard-court form and Ymer's slow starts on hard courts favor Hsu in the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hsu's superior recent hard-court form and head-to-head edge give him a clear advantage.
- Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 7 of his last 10 hard-court matches (70%) with a 57.5% games-won rate.
- Elias Ymer has won only 2 of his last 6 hard-court matches (33.3%) with a 44.5% games-won rate.
- Hsu won the only previous H2H meeting on hard court in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYu Hsiou HsuEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchups between similarly ranked players often extend beyond 21.5 games.
- Hsu's last 10 hard-court matches averaged 19.3 games, but several were one-sided wins.
- Ymer's last 6 hard-court matches averaged 19.8 games, with two going to tiebreaks.
- Both players have moderate serve hold rates, suggesting potential for longer sets.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve early.
- Ymer's recent hard-court matches have featured tight first sets, including a 7-6 tiebreak loss to Garin.
- Hsu has played several first sets with 10+ games in his recent hard-court matches.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 70%, limiting early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hsu's strong recent form and Ymer's slow starts on hard courts favor Hsu in the opening set.
- Hsu has won 7 of his last 10 hard-court matches, often starting strongly.
- Ymer has lost 4 of his last 6 hard-court matches, including a 6-0 first set loss to Trevor Svajda.
- Hsu's first-set win conversion rate is 93% career-wide.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYu Hsiou HsuEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute to a combined ace count that typically surpasses 7.5.
- Ymer averages 4.3 aces per match on hard courts in his last 6 matches.
- Hsu averages 3.3 aces per match on hard courts in his last 10 matches.
- Combined average of 7.6 aces per match suggests a good chance of exceeding 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making over 4.5 likely.
- Ymer averages 3.3 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 6 matches.
- Hsu averages 2.5 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 10 matches.
- Combined average of 5.8 double faults per match supports the over.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets between evenly matched players often lead to at least one tiebreak.
- Ymer has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 6 hard-court matches.
- Hsu has played tiebreaks in 2 of his last 10 hard-court matches.
- Both players have similar serve hold rates, increasing tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(4) 7-6(4)Yu Hsiou Hsu#297vElias Ymer#204Jan 11, 2023

1 total meetings

Yu Hsiou Hsu

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#299Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 6-1#399Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-2#783Ryuki Matsuda

6-2 7-6(5)—Kuan-Shou Chen

7-6(5) 6-3—Kai-I Wang

3-6 6-1 6-2#760Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4#173Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-6(5)#110Toby Samuel

6-3 6-3#389Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4#314Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 7-6(3)#226Henry Searle

7-6(3) 4-1 ret.#152Mark Lajal

6-4 7-5#245Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#401Vadym Ursu

Elias Ymer

7W 8L

6-2 7-6(5)#135Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#267Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#499Paul Jubb

6-3 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-0 7-6(5)#390Trevor Svajda

6-4 6-1#205Timofey Skatov

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#132Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#226Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#30Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#426Niels Visker

6-4 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-3#87Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(7) 6-3#105Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 6-2#347Hamish Stewart

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YHYu Hsiou HsuHsu

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Elias YmerYmerEY

Yu Hsiou Hsu carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.8%+4.9pp58.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.3%+1.0pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+2.8pp49.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.6+2.55.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.30.5 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.2%+3.7pp34.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.5%+3.8pp39.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1567.7%+13.6pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.6%+3.2pp48.4%

Serve · 4–1

63.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.9pp58.9%

71.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.0pp70.3%

52.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.8pp49.8%

2.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.55.1

2.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp34.5%

Pressure · 2–0

43.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp39.7%

67.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+13.6pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp48.4%