PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Oriol Roca Batalla #342Spain0Facundo Mena #333Argentina2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Fri 4 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFacundo Mena · 9 places

Oriol Roca Batalla

Spain

Spanish clay-court specialist with a career-high singles ranking of No. 150 in August 2024. His 2026 recorded match volume has been entirely on clay.

Current ranking: #342
Peak ranking: #150 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Facundo Mena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, age 33. His verified singles career high is No. 127, reached on 12 September 2022; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #333
Peak ranking: #127 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Roca Batalla's superior return game and break point conversion give him a slight edge over Mena on clay.

The match is likely to be close, with over 21.5 total games and over 4.5 double faults offering the best betting value. Avoid the match winner market due to minimal edge.

Context

Mena, 33, is a clay-court specialist from Argentina with a career 57% win rate and a strong 2026 clay record of 24-14.
Mena's recent clay results include wins over higher-ranked opponents like Max Alcala Gurri (No. 177) and a run to the quarter-finals in Porto. Roca Batalla has been less consistent, losing to lower-ranked players such as Yanaki Milev (No. 866) and Niklas Guttau (No. 809) in recent weeks. This contrast suggests Mena may have a slight edge in current form, though both players have similar overall last-15 records.
- Mena's last 6 clay matches: 5 wins, 1 loss, including a win over No. 177 Max Alcala Gurri.
- Roca Batalla's last 6 clay matches: 3 wins, 3 losses, with losses to No. 866 Yanaki Milev and No. 809 Niklas Guttau.
- Both players have 8-7 records in their last 15 matches overall.
Mena's last 15 matches show 5.1 aces per match and a 69.5% break point save rate, indicating a solid serve under pressure.
However, Mena's return points won is only 34.5% and his break point conversion is 30.2%, which are lower than Roca Batalla's 40.7% and 44.2%. This suggests that while Mena may hold serve more often, Roca Batalla could have more success on return. The match may hinge on who can capitalize on break point opportunities.
- Mena: 5.1 aces per match, 69.5% break points saved, 34.5% return points won, 30.2% break points converted.
- Roca Batalla: 3.1 aces per match, 55.4% break points saved, 40.7% return points won, 44.2% break points converted.
The two players met once before, in 2019 on clay, with Mena winning comfortably.
That result is from seven years ago, so it may not be directly predictive, but it shows Mena has had success against Roca Batalla on this surface. The one-sided scoreline suggests Mena's game matched up well, though both players have evolved since then.
- 2019-08-14: Mena def. Roca Batalla 6-4 6-0 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Oriol Roca Batalla

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Roca Batalla's stronger return and break conversion on clay give him a slight edge over Mena's weaker return game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Roca Batalla's stronger return and break conversion on clay give him a slight edge over Mena's weaker return game.
- Last 15 on clay: Roca Batalla 8-7, Mena 8-5 (13 matches)
- Roca Batalla return points won 40.7% vs Mena 34.5% overall
- Roca Batalla break point conversion 44.2% vs Mena 30.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay-court match with both players capable of extending sets suggests a higher total games count.
- Roca Batalla average match duration 106.3 min, Mena 103.3 min
- Roca Batalla games won 53.3%, Mena 47.9% overall
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, with several tiebreaks, supporting an over on set one games.
- Roca Batalla first set average games: 9.8 (last 15)
- Mena first set average games: 9.3 (last 15)
- Both players have played tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive, with both players capable of holding serve.
- Roca Batalla second set average games: 9.5
- Mena second set average games: 9.1
- Both players have had competitive second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roca Batalla's recent clay form and return edge slightly favor him in the opening set.
- Roca Batalla first set win conversion 86% career
- Mena first set win conversion 88% career
- Both players have similar first set records recently
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mena's high double fault rate and Roca Batalla's moderate rate make over 4.5 double faults likely.
- Roca Batalla double faults per match 1.7, Mena 3.5
- Combined average double faults per match 5.2
- Mena's higher double fault rate is notable
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mena's higher ace count and Roca Batalla's moderate ace rate suggest a combined total above 7.5.
- Roca Batalla aces per match 3.1, Mena 5.1 overall
- Combined average aces per match 8.2
- Mena's serve is a bigger weapon on clay
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Oriol Roca Batalla has struggled to convert high win probabilities

Oriol Roca Batalla has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win predictions, a 40% success rate. The average estimated probability was 70.2%, but the expected fulfilled predictions were 3.5, indicating underperformance. All three missed predictions resulted in losses, and the current 55% probability is below the historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Oriol Roca Batalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Pierluigi Basile won

Missed

29 Jun·Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

72%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·65%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

65%probability

Francesco Passaro won

Missed

17 Jun·Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

58%probability

Chun Hsin Tseng won

Missed

1 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-0Oriol Roca Batalla#346vFacundo Mena#306Aug 14, 2019

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Oriol Roca Batalla

8W 7L

7-6(2) 6-2#333Enrico Dalla Valle 6-1 6-1#175Zdenek Kolar

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#207Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#576Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4#866Yanaki Milev

7-6(6) 6-3#809Niklas Guttau

6-4 6-0—Oliwier Sterniczuk

6-4 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#562Pierluigi Basile

6-1 6-2#378Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 7-5—Samuele Seghetti

7-6(2) 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

6-3 6-4#589Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-3#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

Facundo Mena

8W 7L

0-6 6-0 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri 6-4 6-2#498Patrick Schoen

6-2 6-0#230Cezar Cretu

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(3) 6-1#378Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 7-5#573Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-4#320Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 6-3#289Juan Manuel La Serna

7-6(2) 6-2#351Thomas Faurel

6-3 7-6(1)#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-4 6-3#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#884Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 6-4#709Tristan Mccormick

3-6 6-3 7-5#457Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-0#431Valerio Aboian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOriol Roca BatallaBatalla

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Facundo MenaMenaFM

Oriol Roca Batalla carries the stronger recent form — Facundo Mena's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.2%—58.5%

1st Serve Won74.8%+2.7pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+3.1pp51.7%

Aces / Match3.1+2.05.1

Double Faults / Match1.71.8 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.7%+6.2pp34.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.2%+14.0pp30.2%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+14.1pp69.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.0%+2.6pp49.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.2%1st Serve In—58.5%

74.8%1st Serve Won+2.7pp72.1%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp51.7%

3.1Aces / Match+2.05.1

1.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

40.7%Return Pts Won+6.2pp34.5%

Pressure · 1–1

44.2%Break Pts Converted+14.0pp30.2%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+14.1pp69.5%

Points · 1–0

52.0%Total Pts Won+2.6pp49.4%