PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Roberto Carballes Baena #190Spain2William Rejchtman Vinciguerra #879Sweden0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Sun 30 Aug 2026, 20:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRoberto Carballes Baena · 689 places

Roberto Carballes Baena

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 49 in April 2023. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no current-tournament availability concern surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #49 · 2023
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

Sweden

Nineteen-year-old Swedish left-hander. His recorded career-best ranking is No. 871; no preferred-surface declaration was found.

Current ranking: #879
Peak ranking: #871
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Carballes Baena's superior clay pedigree and ranking make him the clear favorite, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are Carballes Baena -3.5 games and over 21.5 total games. Rejchtman Vinciguerra's high double-fault rate and lower serve efficiency will likely cost him, though his recent competitiveness could extend the match.

Context

Carballes Baena, 33, is a clay-court specialist with 530 career wins on the surface and a current ranking of 209.
His 58.3% win rate on clay in the last 15 matches is solid, and he has won 7 of 12 on the surface. Rejchtman Vinciguerra has won only 6 of 14 clay matches in the same window, so the veteran should control the baseline rallies.
- Carballes Baena has a 7-5 record on clay in his last 12 matches (58.3% win rate).
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra has a 6-8 record on clay in his last 14 matches (42.9% win rate).
Rejchtman Vinciguerra, 879th in the ATP rankings, is the left-handed underdog in this qualifying match.
He played a three-set quarter-final on 28 August and now faces a first-round qualifying match on 30 August, leaving less than two days to recover and travel. That compressed schedule could affect his energy in the early stages, though no injury or withdrawal has been reported.
- The Allershausen quarter-final began on 28 August at 11:00 UTC and finished 2-6, 6-2, 6-3.
- The Porto fixture is listed for 30 August in first-round qualifying.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 30 Aug 2026, 22:10 · Europe/BucharestThiago Cigarran v William Rejchtman Vinciguerrawww.sofascore.com · 28 Aug 2026Roberto Carballes Baena v William Rejchtman Vinciguerrawww.sofascore.com · 30 Aug 2026
Rejchtman Vinciguerra, 22, is a left-hander ranked 879 and has struggled with consistency on serve.
He lands only 56.9% of first serves and averages 4.9 double faults per match in his last 15. Against a solid returner like Carballes Baena, who wins 38.5% of return points, that could lead to frequent break opportunities.
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra's first-serve percentage is 56.9% over his last 15 matches.
- He averages 4.9 double faults per match in that span.
- Carballes Baena wins 38.5% of return points in his last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Roberto Carballes Baena

1.01fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Carballes Baena's superior clay pedigree and ranking give him a decisive edge, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Carballes Baena's superior clay pedigree, ranking, and recent form give him a decisive edge over the lower-ranked Rejchtman Vinciguerra.
- Carballes Baena last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), clay record 7-5 (58.3%)
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 overall record 6-9 (40%), clay record 6-8 (42.9%)
- Carballes Baena career clay wins 530 vs Rejchtman Vinciguerra 11
- Carballes Baena ranking 209 vs Rejchtman Vinciguerra 879
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 games, and Rejchtman Vinciguerra's competitive sets suggest a longer match.
- Carballes Baena last15 average 21.9 games per match
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 average 23.3 games per match
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Carballes Baena's overall edge should translate to a comfortable margin in games.
- Carballes Baena last15 games won percentage 50.8%
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 games won percentage 48%
- Carballes Baena has a stronger clay record
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRoberto Carballes Baena -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have often been competitive, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Carballes Baena last15 set1 average 9.7 games
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 set1 average 10.1 games
- Both players have had close first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Carballes Baena's stronger serve and higher first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Carballes Baena first set win conversion career 83%
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra first set win conversion career 76%
- Carballes Baena clay first serve points won 69% vs Rejchtman Vinciguerra 64%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Carballes Baena's dominance suggests a straight-sets victory is more likely than a three-setter.
- Carballes Baena has won 5 of his last 15 matches in straight sets
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra has lost 6 of his last 15 matches in straight sets
- Carballes Baena's superior ranking and clay record
BetBugs · Set BettingwonRoberto Carballes Baena 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making Under 7.5 total aces likely.
- Carballes Baena last15 aces per match 2.5
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 aces per match 3.2
- Combined average 5.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player excels in tiebreaks, reducing the likelihood of a tiebreak occurring.
- Carballes Baena career tiebreak win percentage 48%
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra career tiebreak win percentage 50%
- Neither player has a strong tiebreak record
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rejchtman Vinciguerra's high double fault rate pushes the combined total over 6.5.
- Carballes Baena last15 double faults per match 2.3
- Rejchtman Vinciguerra last15 double faults per match 4.9
- Combined average 7.2 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Despite the high odds, Rejchtman Vinciguerra's recent clay form and Carballes Baena's inconsistency make this a trap for value seekers.

Prediction history

Roberto Carballes Baena has been highly reliable when projected to win

Roberto Carballes Baena has fulfilled 8 of 11 win predictions, a 73% success rate. His average estimated probability was 66.5%, with an expected 7.3 wins, so he has slightly outperformed expectations. All three misses came as losses, with no draws or wins in those matches.

Recent evidence for Roberto Carballes Baena11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#241Max Houkes1-2#176Roberto Carballes Baena

BetBugsRoberto Carballes Baena to win·58%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#241Max Houkes1-2#176Roberto Carballes Baena

Roberto Carballes Baena to win

58%probability

Roberto Carballes Baena won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#165Roberto Carballes Baena0-2#307Marc Andrea Huesler

BetBugsRoberto Carballes Baena to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#165Roberto Carballes Baena0-2#307Marc Andrea Huesler

Roberto Carballes Baena to win

62%probability

Marc Andrea Huesler won

Missed

12 Jul·ATP Bastad

#163Roberto Carballes Baena0-2#366Carlos Sanchez Jover

BetBugsRoberto Carballes Baena to win·78%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#163Roberto Carballes Baena0-2#366Carlos Sanchez Jover

Roberto Carballes Baena to win

78%probability

Carlos Sanchez Jover won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#144Mackenzie McDonald2-0#166Roberto Carballes Baena

BetBugsRoberto Carballes Baena to win·55%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#144Mackenzie McDonald2-0#166Roberto Carballes Baena

Roberto Carballes Baena to win

55%probability

Mackenzie McDonald won

Missed

17 Jun·Parma - Italy

#172Roberto Carballes Baena2-1#132Stefano Travaglia

BetBugsRoberto Carballes Baena to win·58%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#172Roberto Carballes Baena2-1#132Stefano Travaglia

Roberto Carballes Baena to win

58%probability

Roberto Carballes Baena won

Matched

Roberto Carballes Baena

8W 7L

7-6(3) 6-3#100Jacob Fearnley

6-3 1-6 6-1#409Olle Wallin

6-4 3-6 6-2#237Max Houkes

6-3 7-6(6)#251Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 3-0 ret.#376Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-4 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-2 6-4—Mark Ceban

4-6 6-3 6-3#125Sebastian Ofner

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-2 6-3#313Miguel Damas

6-3 6-2#99Jesper De Jong

3-6 6-1 6-4#360Francesco Forti

6-4 3-6 6-3#223Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-4#512Gianmarco Ferrari

6-4 6-4#315Max Hans Rehberg

William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6W 9L

2-6 6-2 6-3#653Thiago Cigarran

6-1 6-4—Niklas Waldner

7-5 1-6 7-6(5)—Louis Van Herck

6-3 5-7 6-2—Jan Simonsson

0-6 6-3 6-1—Victor Ryden

6-1 4-6 6-4—Victor Ryden

7-6(5) 6-1—Filip Soderqvist

6-4 1-6 6-1#700Franco Ribero

6-2 6-4#359Petr Brunclik

5-7 6-3 6-2#498Daniel Siniakov

6-3 6-2#614S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 6-1#486Louis Wessels

7-6(4) 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#588Amit Vales

6-4 6-3#888Stijn Paardekooper

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RBRoberto Carballes BaenaBaena

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

William Rejchtman VinciguerraVinciguerraWV

Roberto Carballes Baena carries the stronger recent form — William Rejchtman Vinciguerra's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.6%+8.7pp56.9%

1st Serve Won70.2%+6.3pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+2.2pp48.7%

Aces / Match2.5+0.73.2

Double Faults / Match2.32.6 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.5%—38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.2%+1.2pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+4.2pp59.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.6%+2.2pp48.4%

Serve · 4–1

65.6%1st Serve In+8.7pp56.9%

70.2%1st Serve Won+6.3pp63.9%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp48.7%

2.5Aces / Match+0.73.2

2.3Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.5%Return Pts Won—38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp45.0%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp59.6%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won+2.2pp48.4%

Roberto Carballes Baena

William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Roberto Carballes Baena

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

William Rejchtman Vinciguerra @ 19.00

Roberto Carballes Baena

William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

Stat Battle