Roberto Carballes Baena vs Marc-Andrea Huesler: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Carballes Baena's superior clay-court pedigree and recent form, combined with Huesler's struggles on the surface, give him a clear edge despite fitness concerns.
- Carballes Baena has a 61.5% win rate on clay in his last 15 matches (8-5), while Huesler is 37.5% (3-5) in the same window.
- Carballes Baena's career clay win percentage is 529-? (approx 66% based on 529 wins vs 270 losses from surface records), far superior to Huesler's 110-? (approx 50%).
- Carballes Baena's return points won on clay in last 15: 41.2% vs Huesler's 37.8%, indicating a break advantage.
- Huesler's recent form is poor: 33.3% overall win rate in last 15, with losses to lower-ranked opponents like Clement Tabur (rank 178) and Dan Martin (rank 500).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of competitive recent matches and break-prone serving patterns points to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Carballes Baena's last 15 matches average 22.9 games per match (343 total games / 15 matches).
- Huesler's last 15 matches average 24.1 games per match (362 total games / 15 matches).
- On clay, Carballes Baena's matches average 23.5 games, Huesler's 21.9, but Huesler's recent clay matches have been tighter with three of his last five going over 21.5.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Carballes Baena 48.5%, Huesler 40.5% in last 15), suggesting breaks will extend games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players consistently produce first sets that extend beyond 9.5 games, making the over a solid play.
- Carballes Baena's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
- Huesler's last 15 first sets average 10.1 games, with 11 of 15 going over 9.5.
- On clay, Carballes Baena's first sets average 9.9 games, Huesler's 9.8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent matches tend to be competitive, frequently surpassing the 9.5-game threshold.
- Carballes Baena's last 15 second sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
- Huesler's last 15 second sets average 10.1 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
- On clay, Carballes Baena's second sets average 9.8 games, Huesler's 9.6 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Carballes Baena's tendency to start strong on clay, coupled with Huesler's slow starts, makes him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Carballes Baena has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), including 7 of 13 on clay.
- Huesler has lost the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), and in 5 of 8 on clay.
- Carballes Baena's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, showing he capitalizes when ahead early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a propensity for three-set battles, especially Carballes Baena on clay, the match is likely to go the distance.
- Carballes Baena has gone to three sets in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), including 6 of 13 on clay.
- Huesler has gone to three sets in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), and 3 of 8 on clay.
- Carballes Baena's deciding set win rate is 52% career, Huesler's is 48%, indicating close matches when they go the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Huesler's big serve, even on clay, combined with Carballes Baena's modest ace count, should push the total aces over 8.5.
- Huesler averages 7.9 aces per match in his last 15, and 5.5 on clay in his last 8.
- Carballes Baena averages 2.4 aces per match in his last 15, and 1.9 on clay.
- Combined, their recent clay averages sum to 7.4 aces, but Huesler's ace potential on a fast indoor clay court could push the total over 8.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Huesler's aggressive serving style leads to frequent double faults, and with Carballes Baena's steady contribution, the total should exceed 5.5.
- Huesler averages 3.1 double faults per match in his last 15, and 3.4 on clay.
- Carballes Baena averages 1.9 double faults per match in his last 15, and 1.8 on clay.
- Combined, their recent clay averages sum to 5.2 double faults, but Huesler's high double-fault rate (3.4 per match) makes the over likely.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Roberto Carballes Baena #165Spain0Marc-Andrea Huesler #307Switzerland2

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Roberto Carballes Baena

Marc-Andrea Huesler

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Roberto Carballes Baena

Roberto Carballes Baena

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

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Roberto Carballes Baena

Marc-Andrea Huesler

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