Roberto Carballes Baena #172Spain22 – 1Stefano Travaglia #132Italy1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Carballes Baena's superior recent clay form and H2H edge on the surface give him a moderate advantage in this Bo3 clay match.

• Carballes Baena is 13-10 on clay in 2026, with a 5-1 record in his last 6 clay matches (all in June 2026).
• Travaglia is 12-9 on clay in 2026, but has lost 3 of his last 5 clay matches against top-200 opponents.
• Carballes Baena holds a 2-1 H2H edge on clay, winning their most recent clay meeting in straight sets (2019).
• Carballes Baena's recent form window (last 5 matches) shows 4 wins, all on clay, with only one loss to a top-100 player.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent clay matches trend toward higher game totals, and the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Carballes Baena's last 5 clay matches have averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
• Travaglia's last 5 clay matches have averaged 22.4 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
• H2H matches on clay have averaged 22.5 games, with the most recent meeting (2019) totaling 18 games but the 2017 meeting totaling 28 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is likely to be competitive, with both players showing a tendency for close sets on clay.

• Carballes Baena's last 5 second sets on clay have averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 9.5.
• Travaglia's last 5 second sets on clay have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 9.5.
• H2H second sets on clay have averaged 10 games, with one match exceeding 9.5 and one at exactly 9.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Carballes Baena's tendency to start strong on clay, combined with Travaglia's recent first-set struggles, suggests a slight edge for the Spaniard in set 1.

• Carballes Baena has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay.
• Travaglia has dropped the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against top-200 opponents on clay.
• Carballes Baena's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 83%, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Travaglia's high ace rate on clay, combined with Carballes Baena's steady contribution, makes over 7.5 total aces likely.

• Travaglia averages 7.5 aces per match (career ace rate 7.5%), and his recent clay matches have seen him hit 5+ aces in 4 of his last 5.
• Carballes Baena averages 3.3 aces per match (career ace rate 3.3%), but his recent clay matches have seen him hit 2-4 aces consistently.
• Combined, their average ace counts suggest a total around 8-10 aces in a typical Bo3 match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and a competitive clay match is likely to produce over 5.5 total double faults.

• Carballes Baena averages 3.6 double faults per match (career double fault rate 3.6%), with recent clay matches showing 2-5 double faults.
• Travaglia averages 3.5 double faults per match (career double fault rate 3.5%), with recent clay matches showing 2-4 double faults.
• Combined, their average double fault counts suggest a total around 6-8 in a typical Bo3 match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Travaglia's recent propensity for tiebreaks on clay, combined with the competitive nature of the matchup, gives a coin-flip chance of at least one tiebreak.

• Carballes Baena has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 10 clay matches.
• Travaglia has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 clay matches, including his most recent match.
• H2H on clay has featured one tiebreak in three matches (2021 hard court meeting had a tiebreak, but clay meetings have not).