Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Carballes Baena's straight-set Q1 win and superior recent form (7-2 in last 9) give him a slight edge over McDonald, who had a longer Q1 match and a 3-6 recent record.
- Carballes Baena won his Q1 match in straight sets (6-2 6-4) vs McDonald's three-setter (6-2 6-7 6-3), indicating fresher legs on a short turnaround.
- Carballes Baena has a 7-2 win-loss record in his last 9 matches on grass/clay, while McDonald is 3-6 in his last 9, showing better recent form.
- McDonald's career grass win percentage is 44-31 (58.7%), but his 2026 grass record is 3-3, while Carballes Baena is 1-0 on grass in 2026 and has a career 8-8 grass record, but his overall form is stronger.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward higher game totals, and grass-court dynamics with strong serving can push this match over 22.5 games.
- McDonald's last 5 matches averaged 23.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Carballes Baena's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Their only H2H match (2026) had 20 games, but on a faster indoor hard court; grass often leads to more service holds and longer sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
McDonald's recent first sets have been lengthy, and while Carballes Baena has had some quick sets, the surface and serving stats support a competitive opener.
- McDonald's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 6-7, 3-6, 6-7, 3-6 (avg 10.2 games, 4/5 over 9.5).
- Carballes Baena's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 3-6 (avg 9.0 games, 2/5 over 9.5).
- Grass often sees tight first sets with few breaks; both players have first-serve win percentages around 67-70%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
McDonald's second sets consistently exceed 9.5 games, and Carballes Baena's mixed but often competitive second sets suggest a likely over.
- McDonald's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 5-7, 3-6, 5-7, 6-7 (avg 10.8 games, 5/5 over 9.5).
- Carballes Baena's last 5 second sets: 4-6, 3-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-1 (avg 9.4 games, 3/5 over 9.5).
- Both players have break-point save rates around 59-61%, indicating resilience in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Carballes Baena's recent first-set dominance and McDonald's slow starts suggest a slight edge for the Spaniard in the opening set.
- Carballes Baena won his last two first sets 6-2 and 6-1, while McDonald lost his last two first sets 6-2 and 6-3.
- McDonald's first-set win percentage in his last 15 matches is 40% (6/15), while Carballes Baena's is 53% (8/15).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRoberto Carballes BaenaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
McDonald's high frequency of tiebreaks recently and the grass-court tendency for tight sets make a tiebreak likely.
- McDonald has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Carballes Baena has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches.
- McDonald's career tiebreak win rate is 48%, Carballes Baena's is 49%, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and their H2H showed a high total, making over 5.5 likely in a competitive match.
- McDonald's double-fault rate is 3.3% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Carballes Baena's double-fault rate is 3.6%, averaging ~2-3 per match; he had 6 double faults in their H2H.
- Combined, their H2H had 8 double faults; grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Grass amplifies serving, and both players have shown the ability to hit aces, with their H2H indicating a high ace count.
- McDonald averages 6.1% ace rate (career), which over ~25 service games could yield ~6-7 aces.
- Carballes Baena averages 3.3% ace rate, but on grass his ace count may increase; he hit 9 aces in their H2H.
- Combined, their H2H had 14 aces in 20 games; extrapolating to a 22+ game match suggests over 12.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Mackenzie Mcdonald #144United States2Roberto Carballes Baena #166Spain0

Player Profiles

Mackenzie McDonald

Roberto Carballes Baena

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Over 9.5

Roberto Carballes Baena

Yes

Mackenzie Mcdonald 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Roberto Carballes Baena