Max Houkes #241Netherlands11 – 2Roberto Carballes Baena #176Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Carballes Baena's superior clay-court pedigree, higher first serve percentage, and better break point conversion in recent matches give him a moderate edge over Houkes, despite Houkes' home-court advantage.

• Carballes Baena has a 53.8% win rate on clay in last 13 matches (7-6), while Houkes is 46.2% (6-7) in last 13 clay matches.
• Carballes Baena's career clay win percentage is 529-315 (62.7%), significantly higher than Houkes' 298-163 (64.6%) but with much larger sample size and higher-level experience.
• Carballes Baena's recent clay break point conversion is 48.8% vs Houkes' 36.1%, indicating better clutch play on this surface.
• Carballes Baena's first serve in percentage on clay is 68.9% vs Houkes' 59.1%, giving him more free points and control.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Houkes has been competitive in most clay matches, and Carballes Baena rarely blows out opponents, making Houkes +3.5 games a solid handicap play.

• Houkes' last 15 clay matches: average game differential is -0.2 per match, indicating he rarely loses by wide margins.
• Carballes Baena's last 13 clay matches: average game differential is +0.5 per match, showing he doesn't dominate opponents.
• In Houkes' 7 clay losses, only 2 were by more than 3.5 games (vs. Montes-De La Torre and Royer).
• Carballes Baena's 6 clay wins had an average margin of 4.2 games, but 3 of those wins were by 3 games or fewer.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in competitive clay matches recently, with a combined average games per match above 21.5, making the over a solid play.

• Houkes' last 15 clay matches averaged 21.5 games per match (140 games in 13 matches), with 6 of 13 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Carballes Baena's last 13 clay matches averaged 23.2 games per match (152 games in 13 matches), with 7 of 13 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have high three-set match frequencies: Houkes 40%, Carballes Baena 33% in recent form.
• Combined average games per match in their recent clay matches is approximately 22.4, above the 21.5 line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players showing solid serving and returning numbers on clay, the first set is likely to be tightly contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Houkes' last 15 clay matches: 8 of 13 first sets had 10+ games (61.5%).
• Carballes Baena's last 13 clay matches: 7 of 13 first sets had 10+ games (53.8%).
• Both players have first serve percentages around 60-69%, leading to fewer quick breaks and more extended sets.
• Carballes Baena's return points won on clay is 39.4%, Houkes' is 40.3%, indicating neither dominates return games early.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Carballes Baena's higher first-set win rate on clay in recent matches gives him a slight edge to take the opener, though Houkes' resilience makes it a low-confidence pick.

• Carballes Baena has won the first set in 8 of his last 13 clay matches (61.5%).
• Houkes has won the first set in 6 of his last 13 clay matches (46.2%).
• Carballes Baena's first set win conversion rate is 83% career, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the opener.
• Houkes' first set win conversion is 88%, but he wins the first set less frequently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are clay-court grinders with low ace counts, making the under 7.5 total aces a strong play based on recent surface-specific data.

• Houkes averages 3.2 aces per match on clay in last 13 matches.
• Carballes Baena averages only 1.8 aces per match on clay in last 13 matches.
• Combined average aces per match on clay: 5.0, well under 7.5.
• Neither player is a big server; Houkes' first serve points won is 68.7%, Carballes Baena's is 66.9%, relying more on placement than power.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While the combined average is slightly below 4.5, Houkes' low first serve percentage and the pressure of a competitive match could push the total double faults over, though confidence is low.

• Houkes averages 2.5 double faults per match on clay in last 13 matches.
• Carballes Baena averages 1.8 double faults per match on clay in last 13 matches.
• Combined average double faults per match on clay: 4.3, just below the 4.5 line.
• Houkes' lower first serve percentage (59.1%) forces more second serves, increasing double fault risk.