United StatesATP US OpenFinished
Predictions gradedFormer world No. 1 junior. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 92 in November 2025; no reliable source from this search established a preferred surface.
Italian right-hander from Perugia whose career-high singles ranking is No. 89, reached in February 2025. Official ITF profile data lists clay as his preferred surface.
Pre-match view
Mochizuki's superior return game and hard-court sample give him a moderate edge, but Passaro's perfect hard-court record and H2H win add uncertainty.
Best bets: Mochizuki moneyline, over 23.5 total games, and over 7.5 double faults. Avoid set 1 winner and total aces overs.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
Market 54.6% · BetBugs 62%
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their competitive profiles suggest a close contest likely to exceed 23.5 total games.
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 58%
Mochizuki's stronger recent hard-court sample and return game give him a moderate edge over Passaro.
Market 54.6% · BetBugs 58%
Mochizuki's elevated double-fault rate on hard courts and Passaro's recent hard-court double-fault spike make the over on 7.5 total double faults a value play.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Shintaro Mochizuki has fulfilled 4 of 4 recent win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 59.3%. The expected number of fulfilled predictions was 2.4, so he has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 58% is within his historical range of 55-62%.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 2 even
Francesco Passaro carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through return.
