United StatesATP US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Shintaro Mochizuki #112Japan2Braden Shick #219United States0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Wed 26 Aug 2026, 18:51 Predictions gradedQ2Hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 107 places

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Former world No. 1 junior. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 92 in November 2025; no reliable source from this search established a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Braden Shick

United States

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 03:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Braden Shick is the pick to win, with a 62% estimated probability and strong value at 2.20 odds.

His superior hard-court form (31-9 season) and better second-serve win rate give him the edge over Mochizuki. The total games over 21.5 is likely, but the best bet is on Shick to win outright.

Context

Shick last 15 hard-court record: 10-4 (71.4%), Mochizuki: 6-5 (54.5%).
- Shick 2026 hard-court season: 31-9, Mochizuki: 10-17.
- Shick has won 63.6% of hard-court sets in last 15, Mochizuki 50%.
Mochizuki hard-court double faults per match: 5.4 (10 matches tracked).
- Shick hard-court double faults per match: 3.3 (13 matches tracked).
- Mochizuki's second-serve win rate on hard courts is only 43.5%, Shick's is 53.3%.
Shick average duration last 15: 190.2 minutes (14 matches tracked).
- Mochizuki average duration last 15: 119.6 minutes (14 matches tracked).
- Shick has played several three-set matches recently, including wins over Holmgren and George.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Shick's stronger recent hard-court form and superior second-serve performance give him the edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Braden Shick last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), hard-court record 10-4 (71.4%)
- Shintaro Mochizuki last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), hard-court record 6-5 (54.5%)
- Shick 2026 hard-court season record 31-9 vs Mochizuki 10-17
- Shick first-serve win rate 68.7% vs Mochizuki 70.3%, but Shick second-serve win rate 52.4% vs Mochizuki 45.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show competitive recent matches with several three-setters, suggesting a longer total games count is likely.
- Mochizuki last 15 average match duration 119.6 minutes, Shick 190.2 minutes
- Mochizuki last 15 games won 50.4%, Shick 52.7%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores show frequent close sets and tiebreaks, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Mochizuki recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 6-2, 1-6, 6-3
- Shick recent first sets include 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 6-7, 5-7
- Both players have tiebreak and close first sets in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shick's higher first-set conversion rate and better recent hard-court set win percentage support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Shick first-set win conversion career 94%
- Mochizuki first-set win conversion career 83%
- Shick last 15 hard-court sets won 63.6% vs Mochizuki 50%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 7.5 total double faults likely.
- Mochizuki last 15 double faults per match 4.5, Shick 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match 7.8
- Mochizuki hard-court double faults per match 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown tiebreak frequency in recent matches, and close sets are expected.
- Mochizuki career tiebreak win percentage 58%, Shick 57%
- Mochizuki recent matches include tiebreaks in 3 of last 15
- Shick recent matches include tiebreaks in 3 of last 15
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are just below the line, but Shick's higher ace rate and potential for a longer match push the total over.
- Shick last 15 aces per match 4.5, Mochizuki 2.9
- Combined average aces per match 7.4
- Shick hard-court aces per match 4.2, Mochizuki 2.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Shintaro Mochizuki

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-4#316Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#150Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#248Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#122Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#250Hayato Matsuoka

2-6 6-2 6-4#258Charles Broom

6-0 6-3#217Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#311Johannus Monday

6-2 2-6 6-4#488Duncan Chan

6-3 4-6 6-1#350Philip Sekulic

6-3 7-6(0) 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#13Rafael Jodar

6-2 7-6(6) 7-5#60Ethan Quinn

6-3 6-0 6-0#266Max Basing

Braden Shick

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#159Clement Tabur

6-2 6-2#152Mark Lajal

6-2 6-3#243Andres Andrade

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#244August Holmgren

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

5-7 6-3 6-2#218Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-3#179Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 6-3#441Timo Legout

7-6(6) 6-4#314Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 4-1 ret.#394Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 6-2#318Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#414Andrew Fenty

6-4 6-3#488Duncan Chan

6-1 2-6 6-3—William Manning

6-2 6-3#217Liam Draxl

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SMShintaro MochizukiMochizuki

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Braden ShickShickBS

Braden Shick carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1548.2%+8.2pp56.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1570.3%+1.6pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1545.8%+6.6pp52.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/152.9+1.64.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.51.2 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1542.9%+1.9pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1542.4%+7.6pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1559.2%+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1550.3%+1.1pp51.4%

Serve · 1–4

48.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+8.2pp56.4%

70.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.6pp68.7%

45.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+6.6pp52.4%

2.9Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.64.5

4.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.2 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

42.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.9pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+7.6pp50.0%

59.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.1pp51.4%