United StatesATP US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Shintaro Mochizuki #112Japan2Daniel Milavsky #306United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Tue 25 Aug 2026, 15:01 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 194 places

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Former world No. 1 junior. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 92 in November 2025; no reliable source from this search established a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Daniel Milavsky

United States

A 24-year-old American right-hander with a two-handed backhand, listed at 193 cm. His current No. 306 is also his listed career high.

Current ranking: #306
Peak ranking: #306
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 16:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniel Milavsky's superior recent hard-court form and second-serve edge make him a strong value bet to beat Shintaro Mochizuki at 2.30.

The total games over 22.5 is also appealing given both players' tendency for long matches. Avoid the game handicap market, as Milavsky's dominance suggests he may win comfortably.

Context

Milavsky's last 15 hard-court record is 10-4 (71.4%), compared to Mochizuki's 5-5 (50%).
- Milavsky has won 64.7% of hard-court sets in that span, while Mochizuki has won only 46.2%.
- Milavsky's recent wins include opponents ranked 124, 165, and 204, showing he can beat higher-ranked players.
Mochizuki's second-serve points won on hard: 43.5% (174/400) in last 10 matches.
- Milavsky's second-serve points won on hard: 52.6% (206/392) in last 14 matches.
- Mochizuki also has a low first-serve percentage on hard (48.1%), forcing him into more second serves.
Lost to Soon-Woo Kwon (rank 152) 7-5 4-6 6-3 on Aug 19.
- Lost to Jeff Wolf (rank 285) 6-2 2-6 6-3 on Aug 12.
- Lost to Hayato Matsuoka (rank 314) 6-3 6-2 on Jul 29.
- Lost to Liam Draxl (rank 216) 6-0 6-3 on Jul 25.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Milavsky's superior recent hard-court record and second-serve edge outweigh Mochizuki's higher ranking, making him the likely winner.
- Last 15 overall record: Milavsky 10-5 (66.7%) vs Mochizuki 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 on hard: Milavsky 10-4 (71.4%) vs Mochizuki 5-5 (50%)
- Milavsky first serve points won 70.3% vs Mochizuki 70.5% (similar), but Milavsky second serve points won 51.7% vs Mochizuki 45.9%
- Milavsky ranking 310 but strong recent hard-court form; Mochizuki ranking 112 but poor recent hard-court results
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniel MilavskyEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to three sets, and their combined average games per match exceeds 21.5, supporting the over.
- Mochizuki last 15 average games per match: 27.0 (405 games / 15 matches)
- Milavsky last 15 average games per match: 22.9 (343 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
- Mochizuki's hard-court matches average 23.7 games (237/10), Milavsky's 23.3 (326/14)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at similar rates, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Mochizuki recent hard-court sets often close: 7-5, 6-4, 7-6
- Milavsky recent hard-court sets include 7-6, 7-5, 6-4
- Both players have similar first-serve points won, suggesting competitive games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Milavsky's edge in hard-court games won percentage and second-serve performance supports a handicap of -1.5 games.
- Milavsky last 15 games won percentage 52.5% vs Mochizuki 50.1%
- Milavsky hard-court games won percentage 53.7% vs Mochizuki 46.8%
- Milavsky's superior second-serve points won (51.7% vs 45.9%) suggests more comfortable holds
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniel Milavsky -1.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Milavsky's stronger hard-court set win rate and Mochizuki's low first-serve percentage give Milavsky a slight edge in the opening set.
- Milavsky first set win conversion 86% career vs Mochizuki 83%
- Milavsky last 15 hard-court sets won 64.7% vs Mochizuki 46.2%
- Mochizuki first serve in only 48.1% on hard in last 15, leading to early pressure
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniel MilavskyEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Milavsky's strong ace count and Mochizuki's moderate ace rate combine to make over 8.5 aces likely.
- Milavsky averages 5.3 aces per match in last 15, 5.5 on hard
- Mochizuki averages 3.2 aces per match in last 15, 2.6 on hard
- Combined average aces per match: 8.5 (5.3 + 3.2)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tendency to play close sets make a tiebreak likely.
- Mochizuki tiebreak win percentage 58% career, Milavsky 44%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Mochizuki recent hard-court matches include 7-6 sets; Milavsky has 7-6 sets as well
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki's high double fault rate on hard courts and Milavsky's moderate rate push the combined total over 7.5.
- Mochizuki averages 4.3 double faults per match in last 15, 5.4 on hard
- Milavsky averages 3.3 double faults per match in last 15, 3.3 on hard
- Combined average double faults: 7.6 (4.3 + 3.3)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Daniel Milavsky has been highly reliable when projected to win

Daniel Milavsky has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 63.3%, with an expected 4.4 wins, so he has slightly outperformed expectations. The two misses both came when he was the home favourite, with one loss to Keegan Rice and one to Ozan Baris.

Recent evidence for Daniel Milavsky7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky1-2#831Keegan Rice

BetBugsDaniel Milavsky to win·62%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky1-2#831Keegan Rice

Daniel Milavsky to win

62%probability

Keegan Rice won

Missed

28 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky2-1#454Quinn Vandecasteele

BetBugsDaniel Milavsky to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky2-1#454Quinn Vandecasteele

Daniel Milavsky to win

62%probability

Daniel Milavsky won

Matched

27 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#326Daniel Milavsky2-0#536Kaylan Bigun

BetBugsDaniel Milavsky to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#326Daniel Milavsky2-0#536Kaylan Bigun

Daniel Milavsky to win

58%probability

Daniel Milavsky won

Matched

15 Jul·Granby - Canada

#335Daniel Milavsky2-0#664Duncan Chan

BetBugsDaniel Milavsky to win·65%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#335Daniel Milavsky2-0#664Duncan Chan

Daniel Milavsky to win

65%probability

Daniel Milavsky won

Matched

9 Jul·Newport - USA

#367Daniel Milavsky2-0#257Kaichi Uchida

BetBugsDaniel Milavsky to win·62%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#367Daniel Milavsky2-0#257Kaichi Uchida

Daniel Milavsky to win

62%probability

Daniel Milavsky won

Matched

Shintaro Mochizuki

9W 6L

7-5 4-6 6-3#152Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#285Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#124Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#314Hayato Matsuoka

2-6 6-2 6-4#289Charles Broom

6-0 6-3#216Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#312Johannus Monday

6-2 2-6 6-4#486Duncan Chan

6-3 4-6 6-1#307Philip Sekulic

6-3 7-6(0) 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-2 7-6(6) 7-5#58Ethan Quinn

6-3 6-0 6-0#248Max Basing

1-6 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-1#163Clement Tabur

Daniel Milavsky

10W 5L

6-7(6) 6-3 6-3#175Lloyd Harris

6-3 6-3#165Rei Sakamoto

7-6(6) 7-5#204Edas Butvilas

5-7 7-5 7-6(0)#254Felix Balshaw

1-6 6-1 7-6(4)#591Keegan Rice

6-3 6-1#124Dane Sweeny

3-6 6-1 6-3#244Yi Zhou

6-2 0-6 6-3#483Quinn Vandecasteele

6-4 7-5#548Kaylan Bigun

6-2 6-4#314Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-1#498Anton Shepp

6-4 3-6 7-5#810Thomas Fancutt

7-5 6-1#216Liam Draxl

6-4 6-2#486Duncan Chan

6-3 6-2#185Alexis Galarneau

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SMShintaro MochizukiMochizuki

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel MilavskyMilavskyDM

Daniel Milavsky carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In48.7%+11.9pp60.6%

1st Serve Won70.5%—70.3%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+5.8pp51.7%

Aces / Match3.2+2.15.3

Double Faults / Match4.31.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+2.3pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.3%+2.3pp46.6%

Break Pts Saved57.4%+2.2pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.3pp51.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

48.7%1st Serve In+11.9pp60.6%

70.5%1st Serve Won—70.3%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp51.7%

3.2Aces / Match+2.15.3

4.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+2.3pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

44.3%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp46.6%

57.4%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.5%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Daniel Milavsky

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Daniel Milavsky

Over 22.5

Daniel Milavsky

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Shintaro Mochizuki

Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle