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ZalaegerszegMTK Budapest

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:4531 Oct, 16:45

8Probabilities4Priced4Edges73%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 06:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Zalaegerszeg have lost once in five home league games; MTK have won none of five away.

The tension is that MTK are unbeaten in the last five head-to-heads and drew 1-1 on their last two visits. Zalaegerszeg to win or draw at 1.43 is the price that holds up; both teams to score at 1.45 and a first-half goal at 1.20 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

No availability news or research evidence was supplied, so the home-away split and the head-to-head record are the factors that genuinely shape this game.

Zalaegerszeg's home record is the basis for backing them, but this is the fixture where that argument has failed most often. MTK have taken points in each of the last five meetings and won all three of those played in Budapest, the last two by three goals. The two 1-1 draws in Zalaegerszeg suggest the home side can avoid defeat without necessarily winning.
- 27 July 2026, NB I: MTK Budapest 3-0 Zalaegerszeg.
- 11 April 2026, NB I: MTK Budapest 3-0 Zalaegerszeg.
- 20 December 2025, NB I: Zalaegerszeg 1-1 MTK Budapest.
- 8 March 2025, NB I: Zalaegerszeg 1-1 MTK Budapest.
Zalaegerszeg's home form and away form describe almost two different teams this season.
The split is stark: every one of Zalaegerszeg's 10 points has come at home, where they have scored 12 goals in five league games. MTK arrive without an away league win of their own, which is why the home side avoiding defeat is the central idea. It does not make a home win automatic, and MTK's three away draws show they can hold a game.
- NB I 2026 home record: 5 played, 3W-1D-1L, 12 goals for and 5 against.
- NB I 2026 away record: 6 played, 0W-0D-6L, 1 goal for and 17 against.
- Overall: 11 played, 3W-1D-7L, 10 points, 12th of 12 (table fetched 30 October 2026).
MTK's away league record of three draws and two defeats includes two heavy losses.
That is the low point of an away league run of three draws and two defeats in five. MTK answered with a 5-1 cup win at Monori three days later, so the collapse was not immediately repeated. The question here is whether Zalaegerszeg's home scoring can generate similar pressure.
- 25 October 2026, NB I: Ferencvaros 5-0 MTK Budapest.
- MTK had 4 shots, 0 on target and 1 corner; Ferencvaros had 24 shots, 10 on target and 10 corners.
Zalaegerszeg's home scoring has arrived in bursts rather than steadily.
All five goals came after Zalaegerszeg had trailed 1-0 at half-time, the most emphatic of their home wins this season. It shows how quickly a home game can turn after the interval, against an MTK side still seeking a first away league win. The counterweight is that Zalaegerszeg's most recent home league game finished 1-1 with Kisvarda.
- 11 October 2026, NB I: Zalaegerszeg 5-1 Nyiregyhaza.
- Half-time score 0-1; Zalaegerszeg scored five goals in the second half.
- Zalaegerszeg had 13 shots and 8 on target; Nyiregyhaza had 5 shots and 3 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

−11.0ppshort

Both teams have scored regularly in these venue splits and the last two meetings in Zalaegerszeg finished 1-1.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Zalaegerszeg have been strong at home while MTK Budapest are winless in the league away, so the home side avoiding defeat is the main result lean.
- Zalaegerszeg home league: 3W-1D-1L, 12 goals for and 5 against in 5.
- MTK Budapest away league: 0W-3D-2L, 6 goals for and 14 against in 5.
- Last two meetings in Zalaegerszeg finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Double ChanceZalaegerszeg or DrawMarket price1.43Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalaegerszeg's home scoring is heavily second-half based while MTK Budapest concede more after the break.
- Zalaegerszeg home second-half goals: 1.67 for, 0.33 against per match.
- MTK Budapest away second-half goals: 0.86 for, 1.00 against per match.
- Zalaegerszeg's home scoring is stronger after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerZalaegerszegEstimated chance47%

Goals3 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams have scored regularly in these venue splits and the last two meetings in Zalaegerszeg finished 1-1.
- Zalaegerszeg home both teams scored in 4 of 6.
- MTK Budapest away both teams scored in 4 of 7.
- Last two meetings at Zalaegerszeg finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.45Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams' venue splits show regular first-half goals, with MTK Budapest's away first halves especially open.
- Zalaegerszeg home first-half goals: 0.83 for, 0.67 against per game.
- MTK Budapest away first-half goals: 1.00 for, 1.14 against per game.
- Both teams' venue splits show first-half scoring and conceding.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.20Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Zalaegerszeg have averaged 2.5 goals at home and face an MTK Budapest away defence conceding over two per game.
- Zalaegerszeg average 2.5 goals in 6 home matches.
- Zalaegerszeg scored in 5 of 6 home matches.
- MTK Budapest concede 2.14 per away match and 14 in 5 league away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalZalaegerszeg over 1.5Market price1.80Estimated chance56%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 58%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits average close to five yellow cards, and Zalaegerszeg's recent league games have been card-heavy.
- Zalaegerszeg home yellow cards: 2.6 for, 2.8 against per match.
- MTK Budapest away yellow cards: 2.0 for, 2.4 against per match.
- Zalaegerszeg's last four league games produced at least five yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
MTK Budapest's away matches have produced double-figure corner totals, and their opponents average eight corners.
- MTK Budapest away opponents average 8.0 corners.
- Zalaegerszeg home corners: 3.0 for, 4.2 against per match.
- Overall corner averages: Zalaegerszeg 8.36 total, MTK Budapest 9.82 total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zalaegerszeg's home matches average about nine shots on target, and MTK Budapest's away shooting volume has been modest.
- Zalaegerszeg home shots on target: 5.4 for, 3.6 against per match.
- MTK Budapest away shots on target: 4.8 for, 6.8 against per match.
- Combined team averages point to about 10 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L3-0MTK BudapestvZalaegerszegi TEJul 27, 2026NB

L3-0MTK BudapestvZalaegerszegi TEApr 11, 2026NB

D1-1Zalaegerszegi TEvMTK BudapestDec 20, 2025NB

L1-0MTK BudapestvZalaegerszegi TESep 21, 2025NB

D1-1Zalaegerszegi TEvMTK BudapestMar 8, 2025NB

MTK Budapest unbeaten in 5 meetingsMTK Budapest: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

NB I 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Zalaegerszeg Relegation	11	3	1	7	13-22	10	DLWLW
9	MTK Budapest	11	3	3	5	16-22	12	LWLLL

2pt gap between teamsZalaegerszeg in relegation zone

Recent Form

Zalaegerszeg

Zalaegerszeg

W3-1Gyori ETO FCOct 28MAG

D1-1Kisvarda FCOct 24NB

L0-3Debreceni VSCOct 18NB

W5-1NyiregyhazaOct 11NB

L1-2UjpestSep 20NB

W5-1Dunaharaszti MTKSep 13MAG

W1-0Puskas AcademySep 6NB

L0-1Budapest HonvedAug 29NB

L0-3Gyori ETO FCAug 23NB

L0-1Ferencvarosi TCAug 17NB

L0-5VasasAug 8NB

W5-2PaksAug 3NB

L0-3MTK BudapestJul 27NB

W3-1KonyasporJul 18FRI

W1-0Epitsentr DunayivtsiJul 17FRI

MTK Budapest

MTK Budapest

W5-1Monori SeOct 28MAG

L0-5Ferencvarosi TCOct 25NB

W1-0VasasOct 16NB

L0-3PaksOct 10NB

L1-2Gyori ETO FCSep 20NB

W2-0Mezokovesd-zsorySep 12MAG

L1-2Kisvarda FCSep 5NB

D2-2Debreceni VSCAug 28NB

W2-1NyiregyhazaAug 22NB

D1-1UjpestAug 15NB

L2-3Puskas AcademyAug 7NB

D3-3Budapest HonvedAug 1NB

W3-0Zalaegerszegi TEJul 27NB

D1-1KomárnoJul 18FRI

W3-0Kozarmisleny FCJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Zalaegerszeg

33 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

MTK Budapest

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper6