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Predictions graded

CSKA 1948 Sofia6Spartak Varna1

HT 2–1Fri 30 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 22–9On targetOn target 10–3CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA 1948's home record — six wins in seven league games — meets a Spartak Varna side with only six goals in six away league matches.

A home win is the likeliest outcome, though four of the last five meetings were drawn and 1.4 is short. The other reviewed prices, up to CSKA 1948 level or ahead at half-time at 1.1, offer nothing either.

Context

Spartak have repeatedly taken a point from this fixture, which makes a tight, low-margin game plausible despite CSKA 1948's home form. The 2-2 in July 2026 shows the meetings can also be open, so both a stalemate and a multi-goal game sit on the record. It is the main reason a short home price is not straightforward.
- 17 Jul 2026: Spartak Varna 2-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 14 Mar 2026: Spartak Varna 1-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 4 Oct 2025: CSKA 1948 1-1 Spartak Varna (First League)
- 29 Nov 2024: Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA 1948 (First League)
CSKA 1948 are markedly stronger in front of their own support than on their travels.
That split is the basis for favouring the hosts: they average 2.57 goals a game at home and concede once per fixture. The single home defeat shows the run is not untouchable, and their away record of two wins from five league games is far more ordinary. The gap between the two splits is the story of their season.
- Standings snapshot 29 Oct 2026: home record 6W-0D-1L in 7 First League games
- Home split goals: 18 for and 7 against across those 7 games
- Overall league record at 29 Oct 2026: 8W-1D-3L, 25 points, 4th place
Spartak Varna do most of their away scoring in the second half.
Their away threat is concentrated after the break, and the first-half figure points to a cautious start at CSKA 1948. Conceding 1.86 per away game puts pressure on that modest scoring output. Seven matches is a small sample, so the split is a guide rather than a settled pattern.
- Away split, 26 Jul–24 Oct 2026 (7 matches): 1.43 goals for and 1.86 against per game
- Away split first half: 0.14 scored and 1.14 conceded per game
- Away split: three clean sheets in seven matches
It shows how quickly the hosts can put a game beyond reach, which matters against a visitor that scores little before the break. The caveat is the match before it, a 2-3 home defeat to CSKA Sofia on 11 October 2026 when they trailed 0-2 at half-time. Both came inside the same month, so the home form is strong but not flawless.
- 23 Oct 2026: CSKA 1948 4-0 Botev Plovdiv (First League), 3-0 at half-time
- 11 Oct 2026: CSKA 1948 2-3 CSKA Sofia (First League), 0-2 at half-time

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

−16.4ppshort

CSKA 1948 have turned their ground into a fortress with six wins from seven, while Spartak have lost half their away games and concede nearly two per trip.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia over 1.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

The hosts average well over two goals a game in front of their own crowd and face an away defence that ships almost two per match.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 60.6%

−3.6ppshort

Both teams' venue splits point to a game with regular goals, and the hosts' recent home scorelines are heavy.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Lean

Spartak Varna under 1.5

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

−22.7ppshort

Spartak's scoring output on the road is modest and their first-half threat away is negligible, so one goal or none is the likelier ceiling.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia or Draw

1.10fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 90.9%

−17.9ppshort

The visitors almost never lead at the break on their travels, while the hosts regularly score or stay level in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
CSKA 1948 have turned their ground into a fortress with six wins from seven, while Spartak have lost half their away games and concede nearly two per trip.
- CSKA 1948 home league record: 6W-0D-1L, 18 goals for and 7 against in 7 games
- Spartak Varna away league record: 2W-1D-3L, 6 scored and 11 conceded in 6 games
- CSKA 1948 overall: 9W-3D-3L, 2.00 goals per game against 0.93 conceded
- Head-to-head: four of the last five meetings were draws, one Spartak home win
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
The visitors almost never lead at the break on their travels, while the hosts regularly score or stay level in the first half.
- CSKA 1948 score 1.14 first-half goals per home game and concede 0.57
- Spartak Varna score 0.14 first-half goals per away game and concede 1.14
- Spartak have scored only one first-half goal across seven away-split matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCSKA 1948 Sofia or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
The hosts average well over two goals a game in front of their own crowd and face an away defence that ships almost two per match.
- CSKA 1948 score 2.57 goals per home league game (18 in 7)
- Spartak Varna concede 1.86 per away league game and 1.86 per game in the away-venue split (7 games)
- CSKA 1948 have scored two or more in five of their last six matches
- Spartak Varna have kept three clean sheets in seven away-split matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCSKA 1948 Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to a game with regular goals, and the hosts' recent home scorelines are heavy.
- CSKA 1948 home league matches average 3.57 total goals (2.57 for, 1.00 against)
- Spartak Varna away-split matches average 3.29 total goals (1.43 for, 1.86 against)
- CSKA 1948's last home league game finished 4-0
- Three of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Spartak's scoring output on the road is modest and their first-half threat away is negligible, so one goal or none is the likelier ceiling.
- Spartak Varna have scored 6 goals in 6 away league games (1.00 per game)
- Spartak's away-venue split shows 1.43 goals per game over 7 matches, with only 0.14 per game before half-time
- CSKA 1948 concede 1.00 per home league game and have 4 clean sheets in 15
- Spartak have scored in only three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSpartak Varna under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The fixture has a long record of both sides finding the net, and the hosts' home games usually feature an away goal.
- All five recent head-to-heads had both teams scoring (2-2, 1-2, 1-1, 1-1, 2-2)
- CSKA 1948 have both teams scoring in 9 of 15 matches, including 5 of 7 home-split games
- Spartak Varna have both teams scoring in 5 of 13 competitive matches
- CSKA 1948 have kept two clean sheets in their last six
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Spartak barely score before the break, especially away, and CSKA 1948's first halves are usually low-scoring.
- CSKA 1948 first-half averages: 0.87 scored and 0.53 conceded across 15 matches
- Spartak Varna away-split first half: 0.14 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches
- Spartak Varna overall first half: 0.38 scored and 0.69 conceded across 13 matches
- Combined first-half expectation is roughly 1.3 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked matches produce around nine to ten corners, helped by Spartak's habit of conceding corners in bunches.
- CSKA 1948 matches average 9.67 corners combined (4.78 for, 4.89 against) over 9 games
- Spartak Varna away-split games average 10.0 corners combined (3.0 for, 7.0 against) over 3 games
- Spartak's opponents average 6.6 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts generate steady on-target volume at home and Spartak allow a high number of on-target attempts on the road.
- CSKA 1948 matches average 9.67 shots on target combined (4.78 for, 4.89 against) over 9 games
- CSKA 1948 home-split shots on target: 5.0 for and 4.75 against over 4 games
- Spartak Varna away-split opponents average 8.67 shots on target over 3 games
- Spartak Varna average 3.6 shots on target themselves across 5 games
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

D2-2Spartak VarnavCSKA 1948Jul 17, 2026FIR

W1-2Spartak VarnavCSKA 1948Mar 14, 2026FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948vSpartak VarnaOct 4, 2025FIR

D1-1Spartak VarnavCSKA 1948Nov 29, 2024FIR

D2-2CSKA 1948vSpartak VarnaJul 28, 2024FIR

CSKA 1948 Sofia unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	12	8	1	3	25-13	25	WLWWL
7	Spartak Varna Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	12	3	4	5	11-17	13	LWLDD