Slavia Sofia1CSKA 1948 Sofia2

HT 1–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 10–15On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 16:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Slavia's home struggles and CSKA 1948's new coach make this a tight, low-scoring contest.

The best value is the first-half draw at 2.15 (model 55% vs implied 47%). Avoid the away win and double chance, as the odds are too short relative to the actual probabilities.

Context

CSKA 1948 Sofia head coach Ognyan Mladenov was appointed on 9 September and oversaw a 2-1 league win over Dunav in his first match.
This is only his second league match in charge, so his selection and in-game decisions remain unproven. The away side may still be adjusting to his tactical instructions, which could affect their structure against Slavia.
- CSKA 1948 officially named Ognyan Mladenov as head coach on 9 September.
- Mladenov's first match in charge was CSKA 1948's 2-1 league win over Dunav on 12 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 16:57 · Europe/BucharestFC CSKA 1948: Ognyan Mladenov is the new coachcska1948.bg · 9 Sep 2026Sportal.bg: CSKA 1948 2-1 Dunavsportal.bg · 12 Sep 2026
Slavia Sofia are seventh in the First League with 11 points from nine matches.
Their home record is 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss from five games, with only 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to turn home advantage into wins, though the small sample size means it may not continue.
- Slavia Sofia have 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in 5 home league matches this season.
- They have scored 3 goals and conceded 4 at home.
Slavia Sofia head coach Ratko Dostanic said after the 0-0 home draw with Spartak Varna that his forwards were not receiving many chances.
He wants a more varied attacking route, so Slavia may change how they supply their forwards. That adjustment could alter their chance-creation structure against CSKA 1948.
- After Slavia's 0-0 home draw with Spartak Varna on 13 September, Dostanic said the side needed to be more varied and find another way.
- Dostanic said Slavia's forwards were not receiving many chances.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 16:57 · Europe/BucharestTopsport.bg: Ratko Dostanic on Slavia's draw with Spartak Varnatopsport.bg · 13 Sep 2026
CSKA 1948 Sofia are fourth in the First League with 19 points from nine matches.
They have a perfect home record of 5 wins, but away they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 5. This away form is less convincing, though the sample is small.
- CSKA 1948 Sofia have 5 wins in 5 home league matches.
- They have 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in 4 away league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's superior away form and strong H2H record outweigh Slavia's home struggles, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- CSKA 1948 away record: 1W-1D-2L, 5 goals for, 5 against in 4 away matches
- Slavia home record: 0W-4D-1L, 3 goals for, 4 against in 5 home matches
- H2H last 5: CSKA 1948 won 3, Slavia won 1, draw 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's inability to win at home and CSKA 1948's solid away form make the double chance of draw or away win highly likely.
- Slavia home winless in 5 (4D-1L)
- CSKA 1948 unbeaten in 3 of last 4 away league matches
- H2H: CSKA 1948 unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half time, especially Slavia at home, making a first-half draw the most probable outcome.
- Slavia leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing 7%
- CSKA 1948 leading at half time in 27%, trailing 7%
- Slavia home first half results: 4 draws in last 5 home matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A first-half draw followed by a CSKA 1948 win is plausible given Slavia's slow starts and CSKA 1948's stronger second-half record.
- Slavia home first half draws in 4 of 5 matches
- CSKA 1948 won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- CSKA 1948 away second half performance: scored in 3 of 4 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / CSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and Slavia's home games are low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Slavia home matches average 1.4 total goals (3 for, 4 against in 5)
- CSKA 1948 away matches average 2.5 total goals (5 for, 5 against in 4)
- Slavia overall average 1.8 goals for, 0.9 against; CSKA 1948 1.7 for, 0.9 against
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's home scoring struggles and CSKA 1948's decent away defensive record suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Slavia failed to score in 2 of last 5 home league matches
- CSKA 1948 kept clean sheet in 2 of last 4 away league matches
- Slavia average 0.6 goals per home match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Slavia first half goals average 0.7, conceded 0.3
- CSKA 1948 first half goals average 0.5, conceded 0.4
- Slavia home first half: 0 goals in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and H2H history shows late goals, but confidence is low due to limited second-half data.
- Slavia second half goals average 1.1 (1.8 total - 0.7 first half)
- CSKA 1948 second half goals average 1.2 (1.7 total - 0.5 first half)
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had 2+ second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, but limited recent corner data for this matchup reduces confidence.
- Slavia average 5.8 corners per match, CSKA 1948 average 6.7
- Combined average corners: 12.5 per match
- Recent H2H matches had 9+ corners in 2 of 3 with data
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, suggesting under 8.5 total shots on target, though data is limited.
- Slavia average 2.8 shots on target per match
- CSKA 1948 average 2.7 shots on target per match
- Combined average 5.5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slavia's high yellow card count pushes the combined average above 3.5, but CSKA 1948's low count makes this a coin flip.
- Slavia average 3 yellow cards per match
- CSKA 1948 average 1.7 yellow cards per match
- Combined average 4.7 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds imply a 57% chance but our estimate is only 45%, leaving no value and a negative edge.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L0-2Slavia SofiavCSKA 1948Feb 27, 2026FIR

L2-3Slavia SofiavCSKA 1948Dec 13, 2025CUP

L3-1CSKA 1948vSlavia SofiaSep 15, 2025FIR

L0-1Slavia SofiavCSKA 1948May 2, 2025FIR

D1-1Slavia SofiavCSKA 1948Feb 17, 2025FIR

CSKA 1948 Sofia unbeaten in 5 meetingsCSKA 1948 Sofia: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Slavia Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	9	2	5	2	8-6	11	DWLDD
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	9	6	1	2	17-9	19	WLWLW