Dunav Ruse2Spartak Varna0

HT 1–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 9–11On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Spartak Varna, seventh and with two away wins, face a Dunav side that has not won at home in five league games — yet has scored three in each of its last two.

Spartak look the likelier winner. At 2.90 they are worth a look, 1.55 for Spartak or a draw is the safer route, and even money on over 2.5 goals plus 2.10 for a level half-time also hold up; Dunav at 2.38 does not.

Context

It showed a side that keeps going after a poor start rather than folding. Dunav scored three from only five shots while Septemvri had 12, so the finishing ran well ahead of the chances created. One afternoon proves little, and their home league record of four goals in five games is the better guide to what they offer in Ruse.
- 11 October 2026: Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Dunav Ruse (First League); Dunav trailed 0-2 at half-time
- Dunav: 5 shots, 3 on target. Septemvri: 12 shots, 8 on target
Spartak took four shots on target to Botev's ten and still left with three points, after a goalless first half. It fits an away campaign of two wins, one draw and two defeats in five league games. Conceding 22 shots is not a habit worth leaning on, but Dunav's home scoring has been modest enough that it may not need repeating.
- 10 October 2026: Botev Vratsa 0-1 Spartak Varna (First League)
- Spartak: 11 shots, 4 on target. Botev Vratsa: 22 shots, 10 on target
Spartak's away scoring is weighted heavily towards the second half.
Their threat arrives late: 1.5 second-half goals per away game against 0.67 conceded after the break. Dunav's home first halves in the same sample average 0.6 goals each way, so the opening period has usually carried a goal but not many. That points to a tight first half without making it a guaranteed blank.
- Spartak away sample: 6 matches, first-half goals for 0.17 per game, against 1.17
- Same six matches: second-half goals for 1.5 per game, against 0.67
Aquila appears in Dunav Ruse's stored squad and is listed with an Achilles operation and 15 missed matches. That places a named Dunav player among the reported absences for this fixture. The available evidence does not establish his likely role or current selection status, so the practical effect on the XI cannot be specified.
- Aquila is listed with Achilles tendon surgery.
- The listing records 15 matches missed.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:34 · Europe/BucharestScoresTV fixture listingwww.scorestv.com · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.90
The read
Spartak's stronger league position and two away wins make them the more likely winner.
- Spartak are seventh with 13 points; Dunav are 10th with 8.
- Spartak's away league record is 2W-1D-2L.
- Dunav have no home league win in five.
- Spartak scored four in a 4-2 cup win at Etar.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSpartak VarnaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
First-half goals have been scarce for both teams, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Dunav home first halves average 1.2 goals; Spartak away first halves average 1.33.
- Spartak's last six first halves included four without a goal.
- Dunav's overall first-half goal difference is -0.25.
- Both teams average under one first-half goal per match overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dunav's weak home record leaves them with a smaller share of the match-win chance despite their recent scoring form. Spartak's stronger league position and two away wins make them the more likely winner.
- Dunav's home league record is 0W-2D-3L with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- Dunav have kept no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches.
- Spartak are seventh with 13 points; Dunav are 10th with 8.
- Spartak's away league record is 2W-1D-2L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDunav Ruse or Spartak VarnaEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Dunav's home first-half scoring and Spartak's low away first-half output give Dunav a modest lead. First-half goals have been scarce for both teams, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Dunav average 0.6 first-half goals at home and concede 0.6.
- Spartak average 0.17 first-half goals away and concede 1.17.
- Dunav home first halves average 1.2 goals; Spartak away first halves average 1.33.
- Spartak's last six first halves included four without a goal.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDunav Ruse or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Dunav's matches have been high-scoring and Spartak's away games also produce goals, so over 2.5 is favoured.
- Dunav's 12 competitive matches average 3.25 total goals.
- Spartak's 12 competitive matches average 2.67 total goals.
- Dunav's last six matches produced five totals above 2.5.
- Spartak's six away matches average 3.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dunav's home scoring is limited and Spartak have shown they can keep away clean sheets.
- Dunav have scored in only two of five home league games.
- Spartak away both teams scored in only two of six.
- Spartak kept three clean sheets in six away matches.
- Dunav's home league record includes 4 goals in 5 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal numbers for both teams point to at least one goal before the break.
- Dunav home first halves average 1.2 goals; Spartak away first halves average 1.33.
- Dunav's last six first halves had goals in five.
- Spartak conceded two first-half goals at Etar.
- Dunav average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.75 against overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked matches have produced well above six corners in total.
- Dunav's six tracked matches average 9.2 total corners.
- Spartak's five tracked matches average 9.0 total corners.
- Dunav concede 6.7 corners per match; Spartak concede 6.0.
- Only 6 and 5 matches have corner data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced shot totals far above 16.5.
- Dunav's six tracked matches average 23.2 total shots.
- Spartak's five tracked matches average 25.4 total shots.
- Dunav allow 16.0 shots per match; Spartak allow 16.2.
- Shot data covers only 6 and 5 matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 16.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced shot-on-target totals well above 6.5.
- Dunav's matches average 10.8 shots on target in total.
- Spartak's matches average 10.8 shots on target in total.
- Dunav allow 8.0 on target; Spartak allow 7.2.
- Samples cover 6 and 5 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have often gone above 4.5 cards, though the season averages sit close to the line.
- Dunav's 11 matches average 2.0 yellow cards and 1.9 for opponents.
- Spartak's 11 matches average 2.3 yellow cards and 2.4 for opponents.
- Dunav's last five card totals include 6, 7 and 5.
- Spartak's last five include 8, 5 and 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%