Dundee3Kilmarnock1

HT 1–0Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 15–15On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Dundee's home record meets a Kilmarnock side that has conceded 10 goals in five league away games, making a home win or draw the likelier result.

The quoted prices do not reward it: Dundee or Draw at 1.29, at least two match goals at 1.15 and both teams to score at 1.48 demand more than the form justifies, and the two closer calls at 1.57 are only about fair. No quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Kilmarnock's most recent away outing is the clearest picture of what they have been producing on the road.
Nine shots and none on target, with three conceded at Falkirk, is the low point of Kilmarnock's tracked run. It came a week after a 3-2 home win over Motherwell in which they had 16 shots, so the attacking output has travelled badly. Dundee have scored in all seven home matches tracked, which makes a repeat shutout unlikely on this evidence.
- 24 Oct 2026: Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock in the Premiership — Kilmarnock 9 shots, 0 on target, 7 corners; Falkirk 19 shots, 8 on target, 9 corners.
Ten games into the season the venue split is the sharpest difference between these two sides.
Dundee have lost once at Dens Park in the league and Kilmarnock have conceded twice as many away goals as they have scored. Kilmarnock's away return does include a 1-0 win at Hibernian on 15 September and a 0-0 at Aberdeen on 5 September, so the record is not uniformly poor. The overall table gap of six points matches the venue contrast rather than exaggerating it.
- Standings, 27 Oct 2026: Dundee 5th, 14 points from 10 (4W-2D-4L); home 2W-2D-1L, 8 scored, 6 conceded in 5.
- Standings, 27 Oct 2026: Kilmarnock 11th, 8 points from 10 (2W-2D-6L); away 1W-1D-3L, 5 scored, 10 conceded in 5.
The most recent meeting went Kilmarnock's way by the biggest margin this fixture has produced since August 2025.
Four of the last five meetings produced at least two goals, so the 12 May 2026 game was unusual for its margin rather than its scoring. Dundee's reply came at Dens Park on 30 December 2025, a 2-1 home win, the only home victory in the run. The head-to-head reads as a tight, often high-scoring rivalry rather than a one-sided one.
- 12 May 2026: Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee in the Premiership at Rugby Park, the most recent meeting between the clubs.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundee over 0.5

1.13fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 88.5%

−4.5ppshort

Dundee score consistently at home and Kilmarnock's away defence has conceded heavily in several games.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

−9.0ppshort

Both teams' scoring and conceding rates point to at least two goals, with Dundee's home games especially open.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundee or Draw

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

−5.5ppshort

Dundee's strong home record and higher league position make a home win or draw the likelier combined outcome.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kilmarnock under 1.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Kilmarnock are low scorers and their away output makes one goal or fewer a reasonable expectation.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 67.6%

−11.6ppshort

Dundee have been conceding regularly, while Kilmarnock usually find at least one goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Dundee's strong home record and higher league position make a home win or draw the likelier combined outcome.
- Dundee are 5th with 14 points; Kilmarnock are 11th with 8.
- Dundee home split: 4W-2D-1L.
- Kilmarnock away split: 2W-1D-3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDundee or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Dundee score consistently at home and Kilmarnock's away defence has conceded heavily in several games.
- Dundee have scored in all seven tracked home matches (7/7).
- Dundee average 2.29 home goals; Kilmarnock concede 1.92 overall.
- Kilmarnock kept three clean sheets in six away tracked matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDundee over 0.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding rates point to at least two goals, with Dundee's home games especially open.
- Dundee home goals for/against average 2.29/1.14; Kilmarnock overall 1.15/1.92.
- Dundee's last six matches all featured at least two goals.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads had at least two goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially Kilmarnock away from home.
- Dundee first-half average: 0.5 for, 0.5 against.
- Kilmarnock first-half average: 0.38 for, 1.15 against.
- Kilmarnock away first-half average: 0.33 for, 1.0 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee do most of their scoring after half-time, and Kilmarnock's second halves often contain at least one goal.
- Dundee second-half average: 1.43 for, 0.71 against.
- Dundee home second-half average: 1.57 for, 0.43 against.
- Kilmarnock second-half average: 0.77 for, 0.77 against.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kilmarnock are low scorers and their away output makes one goal or fewer a reasonable expectation.
- Kilmarnock average 1.15 goals overall.
- Kilmarnock away split average is 1.0 goal per match.
- Kilmarnock failed to score in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonKilmarnock under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Dundee have been conceding regularly, while Kilmarnock usually find at least one goal.
- Dundee's last six matches all had both teams scoring.
- Dundee home split: both teams scored in 5 of 7.
- Kilmarnock scored in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
The teams' corner averages are around the line, and several recent games produced double-figure totals.
- Dundee average 5.09 corners; Kilmarnock average 5.0.
- Combined own-corner average is about 10.1.
- Recent match corner totals include 16, 10, 18 and 22.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up cards at moderate rates and several recent matches were busy for referees.
- Dundee average 1.5 yellow cards; Kilmarnock average 1.91.
- Kilmarnock away average is 2.2 yellow cards.
- Recent totals include Dundee-St Mirren 7 cards and Kilmarnock-Aberdeen 8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance57%