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Predictions graded

Tamworth4Scunthorpe United1

HT 3–1Tue 27 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 04:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Tamworth's home form against Scunthorpe's away record is the pull, but the visitors have won all four previous meetings.

A home win is the likelier result, yet at 2.15 it asks plenty. The two prices that offer something are Scunthorpe to score no more than one goal at 1.75 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.67.

Context

That December night is the clearest single piece of evidence against a straightforward home read, with Scunthorpe scoring three against Tamworth. Tamworth's own league home returns of three wins, one draw and two defeats from six games are the argument on the other side. One match either way settles nothing, but the visitors arrive with recent know-how in this fixture.
- Scunthorpe beat Tamworth 3-1 in the National League on 6 December 2025.
- It is the most recent of the four meetings between the clubs listed in the match record.
The run spans league, FA Cup and National League Cup fixtures, so it is a broad sample rather than one hot streak in a single competition. Scunthorpe's seven league away games have produced 14 goals conceded, which is where much of the Tamworth threat is likely to come from. A blank at home would break a pattern that has held for two months.
- Tamworth scored in all 15 competitive matches tracked between 18 August and 17 October 2026.
- Their scoring average across that window is 1.67 goals per game.
That works out at 0.86 goals per league away game, and Scunthorpe were shut out on several of those trips. The counterweight is their 3-1 FA Cup win at Boston United on 17 October, a reminder that the goals can arrive in bursts. Seven matches is a small sample, and it belongs to a side sitting 22nd with 10 points from 13 games.
- Scunthorpe's league away record is one win, no draws and six defeats in seven matches.
- They have scored six goals and conceded 14 across those seven league away games.
Tamworth confirmed on 23 October that their scheduled match at Gateshead could not be played because the pitch was waterlogged. That removed a competitive outing from their immediate preparation before Tuesday, while Scunthorpe had just completed the Woking fixture. The waterlogging was at Gateshead, however, so it provides no evidence about the condition of Tamworth's own pitch or the expected conditions for this match.
- Tamworth announced that its 23 October match at Gateshead had been postponed because the pitch was waterlogged.
- Scunthorpe's official match report was headed “Iron 2-3 Woking FC.”
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tamworth

2.15fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 46.5%

−4.5ppshort

Tamworth have been solid at home while Scunthorpe have lost six of seven league games on the road with a poor scoring return.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tamworth over 0.5

1.13fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 88.5%

−0.5ppshort

Tamworth have found the net in every match in the sample, including every home game, so a blank is the outlier outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 71.4%

−14.4ppshort

Both sides concede regularly and the head-to-head record points to open games, so three goals is a realistic bar.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

−17.5ppshort

Tamworth's scoring is near-automatic and their defence leaks at home, leaving Scunthorpe a realistic chance of replying.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Tamworth have been solid at home while Scunthorpe have lost six of seven league games on the road with a poor scoring return.
- Tamworth league home record 3W-1D-2L, 11 goals scored in 6
- Scunthorpe league away record 1W-0D-6L, 6 scored and 14 conceded in 7
- Tamworth's 23 October trip to Gateshead was postponed, giving them 10 days' rest against a side that played and lost on 24 October
- Scunthorpe sit 22nd with 10 points from 13
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTamworthEstimated chance42%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Tamworth have found the net in every match in the sample, including every home game, so a blank is the outlier outcome.
- Tamworth have scored in all 15 tracked matches this season
- They scored in all 8 home matches, averaging 2.13 goals
- Scunthorpe have kept one clean sheet in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTamworth over 0.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Scunthorpe's away scoring is thin and they have repeatedly failed to find the net on the road this season.
- Scunthorpe have scored 6 goals in 7 league away games (0.86 per game)
- They were blanked away at AFC Fylde, Barrow and AFC Hornchurch in recent weeks
- Only 3 of their 8 away matches had both teams scoring
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonScunthorpe United under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both sides concede regularly and the head-to-head record points to open games, so three goals is a realistic bar.
- Tamworth league home games have produced 20 goals in 6 (11 for, 9 against)
- Tamworth's overall matches average 3.87 combined goals; Scunthorpe's away games average 2.86
- Three of the four head-to-head meetings had three or more goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Tamworth's scoring is near-automatic and their defence leaks at home, leaving Scunthorpe a realistic chance of replying.
- Tamworth scored in 15 of 15 tracked matches and both teams scored in 12 of them
- Tamworth conceded in 6 of 8 home matches (1.63 goals against per home game)
- Scunthorpe scored in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both sides start slowly, with combined first-half output in these splits around 1.25 goals per game.
- Tamworth home first halves: 0.75 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Scunthorpe away first halves: 0.5 scored, 0.75 conceded per game
- Both teams do most of their scoring after the break
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring is weighted toward the second half, especially Tamworth at home, making two-plus late goals plausible.
- Tamworth home second halves average 1.38 scored and 1.13 conceded (2.5 per game)
- Scunthorpe away second halves average 0.63 scored and 1.13 conceded (1.75 per game)
- Tamworth's second-half scoring rate is more than double their first-half rate
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with one Scunthorpe reply fits the scoring averages of both sides better than any other single scoreline.
- Tamworth average 2.13 goals at home; Scunthorpe concede 2.0 per league away game
- Scunthorpe average 0.86 goals in league away games
- Tamworth's home matches have produced 11 goals for and 9 against in 6
BetBugs · Correct ScorelostTamworth 2-1 Scunthorpe UnitedEstimated chance9%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 2.15 price requires 46.5%, above our 42.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 3W

L3-1ScunthorpevTamworthDec 6, 2025NAT

L1-2TamworthvScunthorpeAug 9, 2025NAT

W0-1ScunthorpevTamworthJan 30, 2024NAT

L1-2TamworthvScunthorpeAug 5, 2023NAT

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21-30	14	LWWLW
22	Scunthorpe United Relegation	13	3	1	9	17-24	10	LLLWL

4pt gap between teamsScunthorpe United in relegation zone

Recent Form

Tamworth

L1-2CarlisleOct 17FAC

L1-2BarrowOct 10NAT

W1-0Leeds United U21Oct 6NAT

W1-0HartlepoolOct 3NAT

W2-0Sutton UtdSep 30NAT

L1-5Aldershot TownSep 26NAT

W2-1WealdstoneSep 19NAT

L1-3SouthendSep 15NAT

L1-3Harrogate TownSep 12NAT

L1-3Middlesbrough U21Sep 9NAT

D2-2Boston UnitedSep 5NAT

L2-3Yeovil TownAug 31NAT

W3-2WorthingAug 28NAT

L1-4FC Halifax TownAug 22NAT

W5-3Newcastle United U21Aug 18NAT

Scunthorpe United

L2-3WokingOct 24NAT

W3-1Boston UnitedOct 17FAC

L0-2AFC FyldeOct 10NAT

L0-3BarrowSep 29NAT

W4-1HartlepoolSep 26NAT

L0-1AFC HornchurchSep 19NAT

L1-2Boreham WoodSep 16NAT

W2-0Sutton UtdSep 12NAT

W2-1Nottingham Forest U21Sep 8NAT

L0-2Harrogate TownSep 5NAT

L2-4CarlisleAug 31NAT

W3-1Solihull MoorsAug 28NAT

L2-3EastleighAug 22NAT

W4-0Stoke City U21Aug 18NAT

L0-1SouthendAug 15NAT

Squad & Injuries

Tamworth

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Scunthorpe United

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Scunthorpe United under 1.5

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

Tamworth

Tamworth over 0.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Result1 of 1 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Tamworth over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Tamworth

Scunthorpe United

Squad & Injuries

Tamworth

Scunthorpe United