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Predictions graded

Scunthorpe United4Hartlepool United1

HT 2–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Scunthorpe's home form against Hartlepool's one-win-in-five away record frames a meeting of two bottom-six National League sides, with Hartlepool under caretaker management and missing their first-choice goalkeeper and a senior defender.

Scunthorpe are the likelier winners, but 2.05 asks more than that case supports. Prices with something behind them: 2.15 for at least one side to be kept out, 3.25 for no first-half goals and 2.30 for the first half to end level.

Context

Clark resigned immediately after the 19 September home defeat by Worthing, leaving, by the league broadcaster's count, after 11 games in charge with eight defeats. Hartlepool confirmed two days later that the process to appoint a successor was underway and that Adam Clayton and Gary Liddle would lead the side into Saturday's trip. A caretaker staff installed days before kick-off can shift selection, shape and set-piece duties, so the visitors' approach at the Attis Arena is unusually hard to project. The counterpoint is that both caretakers were already inside the club, so continuity is as plausible as overhaul.
- Lee Clark resigned as Hartlepool United head coach with immediate effect after the 19 September home defeat by Worthing, departing after 11 games with eight defeats.
- Hartlepool confirmed on 21 September that the process of appointing a successor is underway and that an interim management team would lead the club into Saturday's trip to Scunthorpe.
- Interim managers Adam Clayton and Gary Liddle fronted pre-match media on 24 September, saying their job is to get the squad prepared for Saturday.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Hartlepool Mail's 24 September fitness round-up and The Monkey's Uncle both frame Charman's return as a lift for a squad that had just lost a sixth National League game in seven. The caretaker staff, appointed only days earlier, therefore get a fit attacking option as they prepare a side for Scunthorpe. The reports stop short of saying he starts, so this should be read as restored depth rather than a guaranteed role.
- Hartlepool Mail's 24 September fitness round-up reports Luke Charman's return as a boost while flagging bad news elsewhere in the squad.
- The Monkey's Uncle reported on 24 September that Charman's Hartlepool return is 'a big positive in the midst of all the doom and gloom' at the club.
- L. Charman started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Clark confirmed on 10 September that Chelsea loanee Max Merrick would miss roughly six weeks and return to his parent club for treatment on a thigh injury, a window that still covers this fixture. Merrick had been in goal before the setback recurred, and goalkeeper is the position where an enforced change most affects a side's build-up and command of the area. The estimate is now more than two weeks old and has not been publicly refreshed, so the starter at the Attis Arena remains a live question rather than a settled one.
- Lee Clark confirmed on 10 September that Chelsea loanee goalkeeper Max Merrick would be out for roughly six weeks and return to his parent club for treatment on a thigh injury.
- The setback recurred during the home win over Woking, after which Clark said the club were 'in the hands of Chelsea' over his treatment.
- Max Merrick started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Fisher started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Max Merrick did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Hartlepool's 10 September injury update put Max Kouogun out for at least two months, giving the club a second significant absentee for the coming weeks. A reduced pool of senior defenders narrows what the new caretaker staff can do if they want to change shape or personnel at the back for the trip to Scunthorpe. The figure was framed as a minimum rather than an expected return date, so it should be read as a continued absence.
- Hartlepool's 10 September injury update also stated that defender Max Kouogun was expected to be sidelined for at least two months, a timeframe framed as a minimum rather than an expected return.
- M. Kouogun started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- L. Gibson started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when M. Kouogun did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Scunthorpe's stronger home record and Hartlepool's poor away form and disrupted management make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Scunthorpe home record 3W-1D-2L in 6.
- Hartlepool away record 1W-0D-4L in 5.
- Hartlepool overall 3W-0D-8L, conceding 2.0 goals per game.
- Hartlepool under caretaker managers after Lee Clark resigned; goalkeeper Merrick and defender Kouogun out.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonScunthorpe UnitedEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
First-half scoring has been low for both teams, making a level half the most likely outcome.
- Scunthorpe first-half goals for average 0.5 at home.
- Hartlepool first-half goals for average 0.4 away.
- Scunthorpe first-half goals against average 0.33 at home.
- Hartlepool first-half goals against average 0.8 away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Scunthorpe's stronger second-half scoring at home makes them the most likely second-half winner.
- Scunthorpe second-half goals for average 1.33 at home.
- Hartlepool second-half goals against average 0.6 away.
- Hartlepool second-half goals for average 0.2 away.
- Scunthorpe second-half goals against average 0.83 at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonScunthorpe UnitedEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Scunthorpe's stronger home record and Hartlepool's poor away form and disrupted management make a home win the most likely outcome. Hartlepool's away record is poor, but Scunthorpe's own inconsistent form leaves the visitors with a realistic chance.
- Scunthorpe home record 3W-1D-2L in 6.
- Hartlepool away record 1W-0D-4L in 5.
- Hartlepool overall 3W-0D-8L; Scunthorpe overall 4W-1D-6L.
- Hartlepool scored 3 goals in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonScunthorpe United or Hartlepool UnitedEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Scunthorpe have a modest first-half scoring edge at home, but the half is likely to be tight. First-half scoring has been low for both teams, making a level half the most likely outcome.
- Scunthorpe first-half goals for average 0.5 at home.
- Hartlepool first-half goals against average 0.8 away.
- Hartlepool first-half goals for average 0.4 away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonScunthorpe United or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Hartlepool's high concession rate and Scunthorpe's home scoring suggest enough goals for the over.
- Scunthorpe home matches average 3.0 total goals.
- Hartlepool overall matches average 2.64 total goals.
- Hartlepool concede 2.0 goals per game overall.
- Scunthorpe last 6 matches average 1.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Hartlepool's away attacking struggles make it more likely that at least one side fails to score.
- Hartlepool failed to score in 3 of last 6.
- Scunthorpe kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home.
- Hartlepool away clean sheets 1 in 5.
- Scunthorpe scored in 5 of 6 home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Scunthorpe's home scoring rate and Hartlepool's away concessions point to the home side scoring at least twice.
- Scunthorpe home goals for average 1.83.
- Scunthorpe scored 11 in 6 home matches.
- Hartlepool away goals against average 1.4.
- Hartlepool conceded 7 in 5 away.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonScunthorpe United over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's low away scoring makes under 1.5 the clear stronger side.
- Hartlepool away goals for average 0.6.
- Hartlepool scored 3 in 5 away.
- Hartlepool scored only 3 goals in last 6 overall.
- Scunthorpe home clean sheet 1 in 6.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHartlepool United under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Scunthorpe rarely keep clean sheets at home, so the visitors are likely to score.
- Scunthorpe home clean sheets 1 in 6.
- Scunthorpe conceded in 5 of 6 home matches.
- Hartlepool away goals for average 0.6.
- Hartlepool scored in 2 of 5 away.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHartlepool United to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Scunthorpe's home scoring record makes an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Scunthorpe scored in 5 of 6 home.
- Scunthorpe home goals for average 1.83.
- Hartlepool away clean sheets 1 in 5.
- Hartlepool conceded 7 in 5 away.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonScunthorpe United to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Scunthorpe rarely combine a win with a clean sheet, making the no side much more likely.
- Scunthorpe home clean sheets 1 in 6.
- Hartlepool scored in 2 of 5 away.
- Scunthorpe home wins 3 in 6.
- Hartlepool failed to score in 3 of 5 away.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages suggest at least one goal is more likely than none.
- Scunthorpe first-half goals for average 0.5 at home.
- Hartlepool first-half goals for average 0.4 away.
- Combined first-half average around 0.9.
- Recent first-half goals: Scunthorpe 3 in 6, Hartlepool 1 in 6.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring rates are low enough that at least one team is very likely to be held scoreless.
- Scunthorpe first-half goals for average 0.5 at home.
- Hartlepool first-half goals for average 0.4 away.
- Hartlepool one first-half goal in last six.
- Scunthorpe three first-half goals in last six.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's limited second-half output makes under 1.5 narrowly more likely.
- Hartlepool second-half goals for average 0.2 away.
- Scunthorpe second-half goals against average 0.83 at home.
- Hartlepool scored two second-half goals in last six.
- Scunthorpe scored four second-half goals in last six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0ScunthorpevHartlepoolApr 3, 2026NAT

W1-2HartlepoolvScunthorpeDec 26, 2025NAT

L2-1HartlepoolvScunthorpeJul 30, 2024FRI

D1-1ScunthorpevHartlepoolApr 30, 2022LEA

D0-0HartlepoolvScunthorpeDec 11, 2021LEA

Scunthorpe United: 2 clean sheetsHartlepool United: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
22	Scunthorpe United Relegation	9	2	1	6	11-15	7	LLWLL
19	Hartlepool United	9	3	0	6	7-11	9	LLLWL

2pt gap between teamsScunthorpe United in relegation zone

Recent Form

Scunthorpe United

L0-1AFC HornchurchSep 19NAT

L1-2Boreham WoodSep 16NAT

W2-0Sutton UtdSep 12NAT

W2-1Nottingham Forest U21Sep 8NAT

L0-2Harrogate TownSep 5NAT

L2-4CarlisleAug 31NAT

W3-1Solihull MoorsAug 28NAT

L2-3EastleighAug 22NAT

W4-0Stoke City U21Aug 18NAT

L0-1SouthendAug 15NAT

D1-1Yeovil TownAug 8NAT

D1-1ChesterfieldJul 31FRI

W6-3North FerribyJul 28FRI

L0-2BuxtonJul 21FRI

D2-2Spalding UnitedJul 18FRI

Hartlepool United

L1-3WorthingSep 19NAT

L1-2AltrinchamSep 16NAT

L0-2Kidderminster HarriersSep 11NAT

L0-1Everton U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0WokingSep 5NAT

L0-1FC Halifax TownSep 1NAT

L0-1EastleighAug 28NAT

L1-2Sutton UtdAug 22NAT

W1-0Aldershot TownAug 15NAT

L0-10Middlesbrough U21Aug 11NAT

W2-0BarrowAug 8NAT

W1-0Fleetwood TownAug 1FRI

L0-3GrimsbyJul 25FRI

W3-2Hebburn TownJul 21FRI

W2-1Spennymoor TownJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Scunthorpe United

24 available

Attackers8

Midfielders4

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Hartlepool United

40 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Scunthorpe United or Draw

Scunthorpe United or Hartlepool United

Over 2.5

Scunthorpe United

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Scunthorpe United

Hartlepool United

Squad & Injuries

Scunthorpe United

Hartlepool United