National LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Aldershot Town5Tamworth1

HT 4–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Aldershot's four-game home league record against a Tamworth side without an away win is the tension on Saturday.

The home side avoiding defeat, or winning outright, is the likelier outcome. Three quoted prices hold up — Aldershot to win at 2.4, Aldershot to win or draw at 1.5, and a goalless first half at 3.6. Tamworth to win at 2.4 and over 2.5 goals at 1.5 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Tuma sits in Aldershot's attacking group and has been called up for a window that straddles this fixture, with Malta playing on 24 and 27 September. If he links up as expected, Aldershot must fill his squad place rather than simply rotate it. The squad named is provisional rather than final, so the call-up does not by itself confirm he misses the Tamworth game, and the club has not said whether he will be released for it.
- Aldershot Town announced on 21 September 2026 that forward Basil Tuma has been named in Malta's provisional 29-man squad for the upcoming international window.
- The club listed Malta's window as Andorra v Malta on 24 September, Malta v Liechtenstein on 27 September, Malta v Gibraltar on 1 October and Malta v Andorra on 4 October.
- B. Tuma started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Tamworth's habit of scoring and conceding in the same game cuts both ways at the EBB Stadium: they have the scoring to trouble an Aldershot defence that has kept two clean sheets in ten competitive matches, but they have not managed a shutout of their own to protect any lead they take.
- Tamworth's 11 competitive matches between 8 August and 19 September 2026 produced three wins, two draws and six defeats, with both teams scoring in every one and no clean sheets.
- Their goals-against average across those 11 competitive matches is 2.64 per game.
Tamworth's own channels have framed this trip around a win on their most recent visit to the EBB Stadium, settled by a late Beck-Ray goal. It is a grounded reference point for a side that has won once in its last five league matches and is visiting a ground where the hosts have already lost once in the league this season. The club posts attach no date or competition to that previous meeting, so the memory is background colour rather than a firm form line.
- Tamworth posted on 23 September 2026: "Good memories in our last visit to the EBB Stadium. Who's joining us in Aldershot this weekend?"
- On 24 September 2026 the club posted a clip captioned "Beck-Ray sealing all 3 points in our last trip to Aldershot", describing "a late winner".
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Tamworth's 2-1 win over Wealdstone was their first National League success since 28 August and ended a run of four league games without a victory. It came from a penalty awarded after Wealdstone went down to 10 men and a goal deep in added time, so the margin rested on narrow moments rather than a dominant display. The club frames it as a necessary home response, which makes it a confidence marker rather than evidence of a broader turnaround.
- Tamworth beat Wealdstone 2-1 at home on 19 September 2026, with Nathan Tshikuna converting a penalty after Wealdstone were reduced to 10 men and Jake Hutchinson scoring in added time.
- The club's manager said after the game: "Back at home, we needed to bounce back. Ultimately, we've done that."
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Aldershot's stronger home league record and Tamworth's winless away form point to a home win.
- Aldershot are 8th with 15 points; home league record 2W 1D 1L, 5 goals for, 3 against.
- Tamworth are 21st with 8 points; away league record 0W 1D 4L, 8 goals for, 16 against.
- Tamworth have scored in all 11 competitive matches and kept no clean sheets.
- Aldershot forward Basil Tuma is in Malta's squad for a window spanning this fixture.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAldershot TownEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's slow first-half starts and Tamworth's mixed early record make a level first half the likeliest outcome.
- Aldershot have scored 0 first-half goals in their last 6 listed matches.
- Aldershot's first-half goals for average is 0.3 and against 0.6.
- Tamworth's away first-half goals for average is 0.6 and against 1.4.
- Three of Aldershot's last six matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's stronger second-half goal difference and Tamworth's leaky away second halves point to a home second-half edge.
- Aldershot's second-half goals for average is 0.7 and against 0.4 across 10 matches.
- Aldershot have scored second-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Tamworth's away second-half goals for average is 1.0 and against 1.8.
- Tamworth conceded second-half goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAldershot TownEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Aldershot's stronger home league record and Tamworth's winless away form point to a home win. Both teams have shown a tendency to share points, and Tamworth's away record includes a draw.
- Aldershot are 8th with 15 points; home league record 2W 1D 1L, 5 goals for, 3 against.
- Tamworth are 21st with 8 points; away league record 0W 1D 4L, 8 goals for, 16 against.
- Two of the last four head-to-head meetings were draws.
- Aldershot have drawn 3 of 9 league games; Tamworth have drawn 2 of 9.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAldershot Town or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's home advantage gives them a share of the first-half lead, but their early scoring has been very limited. Aldershot's slow first-half starts and Tamworth's mixed early record make a level first half the likeliest outcome.
- Aldershot's first-half goals for average is 0.3 and against 0.6 across 10 matches.
- Aldershot have scored 0 first-half goals in their last 6 listed matches.
- Aldershot's first-half goals for average is 0.3 and against 0.6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAldershot Town or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals9 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tamworth's away games are high-scoring and they have scored in every match, pointing to at least three goals.
- Tamworth's 9 league games have 16 goals for and 23 against.
- Tamworth away league games have 8 goals for and 16 against in 5 matches.
- Aldershot home league games have 5 goals for and 3 against in 4 matches.
- The last four head-to-heads produced totals of 2, 3, 4 and 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tamworth's consistent scoring and Aldershot's home goal threat make both teams scoring the likely outcome.
- Tamworth have both scored and conceded in all 11 competitive matches.
- Tamworth have scored in all 5 away league games, conceding 16.
- Aldershot have scored 5 goals in 4 home league games.
- Aldershot have kept 2 clean sheets in 10 overall matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth's heavy away concession rate gives Aldershot a fair chance of scoring at least twice at home.
- Aldershot have scored 5 goals in 4 home league games (1.25 per game).
- Tamworth have conceded 16 goals in 5 away league games (3.2 per game).
- Aldershot scored 2 goals in their recent 2-1 win at Solihull Moors.
- Aldershot's home league record is 2W 1D 1L.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAldershot Town over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's home defence has limited opponents, making under 1.5 away goals slightly more likely.
- Aldershot have conceded 3 goals in 4 home league games (0.75 per game).
- Tamworth's away league scoring is 1.6 goals per game.
- In their last three away league matches, Tamworth scored 1, 1 and 2 goals.
- Aldershot kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 home win over Halifax.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTamworth under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth's consistent scoring makes it likely they will breach the Aldershot defence at least once.
- Tamworth have scored in all 11 competitive matches.
- Tamworth have scored in all 5 away league games, with 8 goals.
- Aldershot have conceded in 8 of 10 overall matches.
- Aldershot have conceded 3 goals in 4 home league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTamworth to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth's inability to keep clean sheets and Aldershot's home scoring point to Aldershot scoring.
- Tamworth have kept no clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- Tamworth have conceded 16 goals in 5 away league games.
- Aldershot have scored 5 goals in 4 home league games.
- Aldershot have scored in 7 of 10 overall matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAldershot Town to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth's early scoring and Aldershot's tendency to concede first-half goals make at least one goal before the break likely.
- Tamworth have scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Tamworth's first-half goals for average is 0.82 and against 1.18.
- Aldershot's first-half goals for average is 0.3 and against 0.6.
- Three of Aldershot's last six matches had no first-half goals, but Tamworth's games have been more open early.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's lack of first-half goals makes both teams scoring before the break improbable.
- Aldershot have scored 0 first-half goals in their last 6 listed matches.
- Aldershot's first-half goals for average is 0.3 across 10 matches.
- Tamworth have scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches but Aldershot's early blank makes both-scoring unlikely.
- Aldershot have not scored before half-time in any of their last six listed matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth's away games tend to produce multiple second-half goals, making over 1.5 likely.
- Tamworth's last 6 matches produced second-half totals of 2, 4, 1, 3, 2 and 3 goals.
- Tamworth's away second-half goals for average is 1.0 and against 1.8.
- Aldershot's last 6 matches produced second-half totals of 1, 1, 2, 0, 1 and 2 goals.
- Aldershot's second-half goals for average is 0.7 and against 0.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1TamworthvAldershot TownFeb 14, 2026NAT

L1-2Aldershot TownvTamworthOct 18, 2025NAT

D2-2Aldershot TownvTamworthJan 25, 2025NAT

L3-2TamworthvAldershot TownAug 26, 2024NAT

L1-0TamworthvAldershot TownMar 8, 2014NAT

Tamworth unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Aldershot Town	9	4	3	2	10-7	15	LDWWD
21	Tamworth Relegation	9	2	2	5	16-23	8	WLLDL

7pt gap between teamsTamworth in relegation zone

Recent Form

Aldershot Town

L0-1BarrowSep 19NAT

D1-1Yeovil TownSep 15NAT

W2-1Solihull MoorsSep 12NAT

L0-3West Ham United U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0FC Halifax TownSep 5NAT

D1-1EastleighAug 31NAT

W3-1Harrogate TownAug 28NAT

D1-1Kidderminster HarriersAug 22NAT

L0-1HartlepoolAug 15NAT

W1-0Boston UnitedAug 8NAT

W2-1BraintreeAug 1FRI

W2-0Hanwell TownJul 25FRI

L1-3Oxford UnitedJul 21FRI

W2-1FarnboroughJul 18FRI

W2-0PortsmouthJul 15FRI

Tamworth

W2-1WealdstoneSep 19NAT

L1-3SouthendSep 15NAT

L1-3Harrogate TownSep 12NAT

L1-3Middlesbrough U21Sep 9NAT

D2-2Boston UnitedSep 5NAT

L2-3Yeovil TownAug 31NAT

W3-2WorthingAug 28NAT

L1-4FC Halifax TownAug 22NAT

W5-3Newcastle United U21Aug 18NAT

L1-2AFC FyldeAug 15NAT

D3-3Boreham WoodAug 8NAT

W3-1AFC Telford UnitedAug 1FRI

D1-1MacclesfieldJul 28FRI

D2-2Halesowen TownJul 25FRI

L1-2Aston Villa U21Jul 21FRI

Squad & Injuries

Aldershot Town

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Tamworth

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aldershot Town or Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Aldershot Town

Yes

Over 2.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals9 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Aldershot Town

Tamworth

Squad & Injuries

Aldershot Town

Tamworth