National LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Hartlepool United0Tamworth1

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges1–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Hartlepool, 21st, host 22nd-placed Tamworth with neither side in form: Tamworth have no away win in six league trips and Hartlepool have lost their last four league matches.

Hartlepool's home record against Tamworth's away defence points to a narrow home win with goals at both ends. The reviewed first-half goal prices, over 0.5 at 1.25 and under 0.5 at 3.25, both offer nothing.

Context

Hartlepool have been without a permanent head coach since Lee Clark resigned on 19 September 2026, and an interim group has run the team for the fixtures since. A completed appointment in the days before Tamworth could reset selection and shape, while another week of interim leadership points to continuity. Pete Wild is the frontrunner but no appointment is complete, so the size of any change for Saturday is uncertain.
- Lee Clark resigned as Hartlepool head coach on 19 September 2026 immediately after a 3-1 home defeat by Worthing.
- An interim management team took charge for the following fixture at Scunthorpe United while the club searched for a successor.
- Hartlepool are looking for their 20th permanent manager in ten years.
- Pete Wild, previously in charge at Halifax Town and most recently Tranmere Rovers, has emerged as the frontrunner for the role.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Hartlepool's on-loan goalkeeper Max Merrick has been out with a thigh problem since early September, and the club moved for former Newcastle goalkeeper Max Thompson on a short-term deal on the day of the Harrogate game. The goalkeeping slot has been unsettled through a run of heavy defeats. Thompson's arrival suggests the issue is not resolved for the Tamworth match, though a short-term deal does not guarantee he starts.
- Goalkeeper Max Merrick, on loan from Chelsea, was ruled out for around six weeks with a thigh injury in early September 2026.
- Hartlepool signed former Newcastle goalkeeper Max Thompson on an initial short-term deal on 29 September 2026.
- Max Merrick started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Fisher started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Max Merrick did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Miley took the club's post-match duties after the 1-0 home defeat by Harrogate Town and used them to look straight to Tamworth. His message frames the fixture as the moment to convert a better display into a result. A player's words do not change selection or tactics, so this is backdrop rather than a material factor.
- Midfielder Jamie Miley led Hartlepool's reaction to the 1-0 home defeat by Harrogate Town on 29 September 2026.
- He described the display as one to take positives from ahead of the Tamworth fixture.
- Jamie Miley started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
The clubs' most recent recorded meeting was a 2-2 draw at Victoria Park in February 2025, a game in which Tamworth twice came back to level. That makes the ground and the opponent familiar even after a large turnover in both squads. The fixture is more than eighteen months old, so it says more about the tone of past meetings than about either current team.
- Hartlepool United and Tamworth drew 2-2 in the National League at Victoria Park on 11 February 2025.
- Reyes Cleary and Mani Dieseruvwe scored for Hartlepool; Jordan Ponticelli and Beck-Ray Enoru scored for Tamworth.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest2-2 draw, February 2025www.bbc.co.uk · 11 Feb 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Both defences concede before the break and five of Hartlepool's last six matches produced a first-half goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's home form is ordinary but Tamworth have been beaten in five of six away games and concede heavily on the road.
- Hartlepool home league record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 4 goals for and 4 against
- Tamworth away league record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 9 scored and 21 conceded
- Hartlepool have lost four of their last five competitive matches
- Tamworth have taken one point from six away league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHartlepool UnitedEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before the break, so the half-time scoreline is often level.
- Hartlepool average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.92 against
- Tamworth average 0.75 first-half goals for and 1.42 against
- One of Hartlepool's last six competitive matches was goalless at half-time
- Both sides score few first-half goals relative to their overall totals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tamworth score more after the break than Hartlepool and Hartlepool concede steadily in the closing period.
- Tamworth average 1.17 second-half goals
- Hartlepool concede 1.25 second-half goals per game
- Tamworth scored twice after half-time in their 2-1 win over Wealdstone
- Tamworth have not won away all season
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTamworthEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's home form is ordinary but Tamworth have been beaten in five of six away games and concede heavily on the road. Tamworth score far more freely than Hartlepool and the home side have lost seven of ten league matches.
- Hartlepool home league record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 4 goals for and 4 against
- Tamworth away league record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 9 scored and 21 conceded
- Tamworth have scored 17 league goals; Hartlepool have scored 8
- Hartlepool have lost seven of their 10 league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHartlepool United or TamworthEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's first-half scoring is very low, but Tamworth concede early goals regularly and have a poor away record. Both teams score little before the break, so the half-time scoreline is often level.
- Hartlepool average 0.33 first-half goals and concede 0.92
- Tamworth average 1.42 first-half goals against
- Hartlepool average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.92 against
- Tamworth average 0.75 first-half goals for and 1.42 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostHartlepool United or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth matches are consistently high-scoring and Hartlepool concede regularly, although Pools' home games have been tighter.
- Tamworth's 10 league games have produced 45 goals (17 for, 28 against)
- Tamworth have both scored and conceded in all 12 competitive matches
- Hartlepool have conceded 15 goals in 10 league games
- Hartlepool's four home league games have produced 8 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth score and concede in every game, and Hartlepool should find chances against a defence conceding 3.5 goals per away match.
- Tamworth have scored in all 12 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in all 12 of Tamworth's competitive matches
- Hartlepool scored in four of their last six competitive matches
- Tamworth have conceded 21 goals in six away league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's season-long scoring rate is very low and one goal or none has been their pattern recently.
- Hartlepool average 0.8 goals per league game
- Hartlepool average 1.0 goal per home league game
- Hartlepool scored at most once in each of their last six competitive matches
- Tamworth have conceded 3.5 goals per away league game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHartlepool United under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's home defensive record is reasonable and Tamworth's recent away returns have been a single goal.
- Tamworth scored exactly one goal in each of their last three away league matches
- Hartlepool have conceded 1.0 goal per home league game
- Hartlepool have kept three clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
- Tamworth average 1.5 away league goals
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTamworth under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth have scored in every competitive match and Hartlepool have conceded in each of their last five.
- Tamworth have scored in all 12 competitive matches
- Tamworth have scored 17 league goals in 10 games
- Hartlepool have conceded in each of their last five competitive matches
- Tamworth average 1.5 goals per away league game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTamworth to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tamworth have conceded in every match this season and give up 3.5 goals per away game.
- Tamworth have kept no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches
- Tamworth have conceded 2.83 goals per league game
- Hartlepool average 1.0 goal per home league game
- Tamworth have conceded in all six away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHartlepool United to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both defences concede before the break and five of Hartlepool's last six matches produced a first-half goal.
- Tamworth concede 1.42 first-half goals per game
- Hartlepool concede 0.92 first-half goals per game
- Five of Hartlepool's last six competitive matches had a first-half goal
- Tamworth scored in the first half of three of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool rarely score before the break, making a shared first-half scoreline unlikely.
- Hartlepool average 0.33 first-half goals
- Hartlepool have scored 4 first-half goals in 12 competitive matches
- Tamworth have scored 9 first-half goals in 12 competitive matches
- Two of Hartlepool's last six matches had no Hartlepool first-half goal
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede after the break and Tamworth's recent matches have produced regular second-half goals.
- Hartlepool concede 1.25 second-half goals per game
- Tamworth average 1.17 second-half goals
- Tamworth's 1-5 defeat at Aldershot had two second-half goals
- Tamworth's last six matches produced 2.5 second-half goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

D1-1TamworthvHartlepoolFeb 7, 2026NAT

D1-1HartlepoolvTamworthSep 27, 2025NAT

D2-2HartlepoolvTamworthFeb 11, 2025NAT

D1-1HartlepoolvTamworthDec 10, 2024FA

W0-1TamworthvHartlepoolAug 20, 2024NAT

Hartlepool United unbeaten in 5 meetings2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
21	Hartlepool United Relegation	10	3	0	7	8-15	9	LLLLW
22	Tamworth Relegation	10	2	2	6	17-28	8	LWLLD

1pt gap between teamsHartlepool United in relegation zoneTamworth in relegation zone

Recent Form

Hartlepool United

L1-4ScunthorpeSep 26NAT

L1-3WorthingSep 19NAT

L1-2AltrinchamSep 16NAT

L0-2Kidderminster HarriersSep 11NAT

L0-1Everton U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0WokingSep 5NAT

L0-1FC Halifax TownSep 1NAT

L0-1EastleighAug 28NAT

L1-2Sutton UtdAug 22NAT

W1-0Aldershot TownAug 15NAT

L0-10Middlesbrough U21Aug 11NAT

W2-0BarrowAug 8NAT

W1-0Fleetwood TownAug 1FRI

L0-3GrimsbyJul 25FRI

W3-2Hebburn TownJul 21FRI

Tamworth

L1-5Aldershot TownSep 26NAT

W2-1WealdstoneSep 19NAT

L1-3SouthendSep 15NAT

L1-3Harrogate TownSep 12NAT

L1-3Middlesbrough U21Sep 9NAT

D2-2Boston UnitedSep 5NAT

L2-3Yeovil TownAug 31NAT

W3-2WorthingAug 28NAT

L1-4FC Halifax TownAug 22NAT

W5-3Newcastle United U21Aug 18NAT

L1-2AFC FyldeAug 15NAT

D3-3Boreham WoodAug 8NAT

W3-1AFC Telford UnitedAug 1FRI

D1-1MacclesfieldJul 28FRI

D2-2Halesowen TownJul 25FRI

Squad & Injuries

Hartlepool United

40 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper6

Tamworth

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3