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Viking StavangerTromso

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:3025 Oct, 13:30

9Probabilities7Priced7Edges76%Strongest

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Viking put an 11-from-11 home league record against a Tromsø side that has drawn its last two league games 1-1.

Viking are the likelier winners, but 1.48 asks too much of a team four days off a Champions League trip with six listed injuries. Three prices hold up: Viking to score twice at 1.44, Viking for six or more corners at 1.53 and Tromsø to score at least once at 1.43.

Context

Viking's six listed injury absences and K. Askildsen's suspension, plus a Champions League away match on 21 October, are the conditions most likely to shape the game. Tromsø's 5-3-2 and their two recent 1-1 league draws point to a compact, lower-tempo approach.

The named lineups put Viking in a 4-3-3 and Tromsø in a 5-3-2 for this fixture. Those shapes directly define the teams' opening personnel structure and likely wide-versus-back-five matchups. The source establishes the starting setup, not how either side will alter it during the match.
- Viking are named in a 4-3-3 with Østbø in goal and Tripic captain.
- Tromsø are named in a 5-3-2 with Haugaard in goal and Jenssen captain.
- Morten Jensen manages Viking and Jørgen Vik manages Tromsø for this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:12 · Europe/BucharestMatch coveragewww.bbc.com · 25 Oct 2026
Viking's listed absences include K. Askildsen's suspension and six injury entries, creating a potentially narrower selection pool for this fixture. The red-card suspension is a specific confirmed availability constraint. The supplied injury list does not establish each player's expected role or match-day availability beyond that listing.
- K. Askildsen is listed as suspended after a red card.
- A. Baertelsen, V. Berisha, S. Bjørsol, M. Røseth, H. Falchener and K. Haugen are listed injured.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:12 · Europe/BucharestMatch availability listingvictoryscores.com · 25 Oct 2026
No side has taken a league point at Lyse Arena this season, which is the clearest single reason Viking are favourites here. Tromsø's away record of four wins, three draws and four losses is mid-table, though they have scored 20 goals on the road. That home streak is the baseline against which the absences and the European trip have to be weighed.
- Eliteserien 2026 after 23 matches: 18 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 59 goals for, 22 against
- Home record: 11 played, 11 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 41 goals for, 12 against
Viking were outshot 21-10 at Villa Park on 21 October, and the record shows the scoreline and shot counts rather than who will start here or how heavy the legs are. It is a reason to treat their home dominance as slightly less certain, not a reason to expect a Tromsø win. Tromsø's own recent league form is two 1-1 draws.
- 21 October 2026, UEFA Champions League: Aston Villa 3-1 Viking
- Shots: Viking 10, Aston Villa 21; shots on target 3-10

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 58%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Viking have been flawless at home in the league, and Tromsø's away record shows they concede regularly on the road.
- Viking home league record this season: 11 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 41 goals for and 12 against
- Viking's home split across 7 tracked matches: 3.43 goals for and 1.29 against per game, 6W-1D-0L
- Tromsø away league record: 4W-3D-4L, 20 goals for and 21 against in 11 games
- Head-to-head: Viking won 3-1 in Tromsø in October 2025, but the two Lyse Arena meetings in 2024-25 were 4-4 and 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerViking StavangerMarket price1.48Estimated chance58%

Goals5 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Viking score multiple goals routinely at Lyse Arena and Tromsø concede at a rate that makes two or more home goals likely.
- Viking have scored in all 15 tracked matches; 2.53 goals per game overall
- At home they average 3.43 goals per game and have failed to score just once in seven home matches
- Recent home scores: 3-2 v Fredrikstad, 3-3 v Bayern, 3-0 v Lillestrom
- Tromsø have kept two clean sheets in eight recent away matches, conceding 2.1 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalViking Stavanger over 1.5Market price1.44Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both sides' matches are consistently high-scoring, with Viking's home games and Tromsø's away games both averaging well over four goals combined.
- Viking home matches average roughly 4.7 combined goals (3.43 for, 1.29 against)
- Tromsø away matches average 4.6 combined goals in the tracked away split
- Recent Viking games produced 5, 6, 3, 2 and 3 goals; Tromsø's recent league games produced 2, 2, 5, 5 and 2
- Both teams scored in 12 of Viking's 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.43Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Viking rarely shut opponents out at home while Tromsø have scored in most away matches, so both scoring is the natural pattern.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Viking's 15 tracked matches and in 6 of 7 Viking home matches
- Tromsø scored in 8 of 10 tracked away matches and in 5 of their last 6 games
- Viking kept only 3 clean sheets in 15 matches, 1 in 7 at home
- Tromsø's away split shows 2.5 goals for per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.57Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Tromsø find the net regularly away from home, and Viking's home defence has kept just one clean sheet.
- Tromsø scored in 8 of 10 tracked away matches and average 2.5 goals per away game
- Viking kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 home matches
- Tromsø scored in 5 of their last 6 league and cup games
- Viking conceded in 6 of 7 home matches this season
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalTromso over 0.5Market price1.43Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have produced goals at a steady rate, with Viking starting strongly at home and Tromsø's away games often opening up early.
- Viking home split: 1.71 first-half goals for and 0.71 against per game
- Tromsø away split: 1.1 first-half goals for and 1.2 against per game
- Viking's last home games had first-half scores of 1-2, 2-0 and 2-0
- Tromsø's recent away games had first-half scores of 1-0 and 0-4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 69%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Viking generate plenty of corners at home and concede many at the other end, which pushes the match total up.
- Viking average 6.46 corners and concede 7.0 per match across 13 tracked games
- Viking's home split shows 7.86 corners per game, with opponent corners around 6.0
- Recent Viking matches totalled 15, 6, 22, 17 and 13 corners
- Tromsø's away split shows 2.7 corners for and 5.6 against per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.55Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Viking's home territorial dominance produces around seven or eight corners a game, comfortably above this line.
- Viking average 7.86 corners per home match across 7 tracked home games
- Home corner counts in recent matches: 6, 7, 7 and 6
- Tromsø concede 5.6 corners per away match in the tracked away split
- Viking dominate territory at home with 17.9 shots per game
BetBugs · Home CornersViking Stavanger over 5.5Market price1.53Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' matches regularly pass this line, with Viking's home games especially shot-heavy and Tromsø conceding a lot of shots on the road.
- Viking's matches average 32 total shots (14.1 for, 17.9 against) across 13 tracked games
- Viking home split: 17.9 shots for and 16.3 against per game
- Tromsø away split: 9.7 shots for and 18.3 against per game
- Recent totals: Viking games 31, 21, 33, 38, 38; Tromsø games 22, 37, 23
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 25.5Estimated chance65%

Prediction history

Viking Stavanger: 4/6 recent goals projections matched

4 of 6 comparable goals projections involving Viking Stavanger matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Viking Stavanger6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien