Toulouse0Troyes0

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 7–8On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 01:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Toulouse, 12th on nine points, host a Troyes side with five straight defeats and five goals in seven league games — yet Toulouse have won only one of three at home.

A Toulouse win or draw in a low-scoring game is the likeliest shape. The 1.18 on that outcome is thin; Troyes to score no more than one goal at 1.33, fewer than two first-half goals at 1.57 and Troyes over 4.5 corners at 2.2 hold up better.

Context

Five goals in seven league games is the number that shapes this fixture: Troyes have been shut out three times in their last six matches and have not scored more than twice in any league game this season. That limits how much pressure they can put on a Toulouse side that has kept one clean sheet in eleven competitive matches. It points to a low-scoring away display as the more likely route than an open contest.
- Standings on 24 October 2026: Troyes 17th, played 7, W1 D1 L5, 5 goals for and 16 against.
- Form string over the last five league matches: LLLLL.
- Away league record: 3 played, W1 D0 L2, 2 goals for and 5 against.
The nine-point total reads like a solid start, but the home column is thin: three goals in three games at the Stadium and a 1-0 defeat by Lille on 3 September in their most recent home outing. Troyes have one win all season and have lost five straight, which is why the home side still look likely to take something. The home record and three league draws overall mean a comfortable Toulouse win is less certain than 12th against 17th suggests.
- Standings on 24 October 2026: Toulouse 12th, played 7, W2 D3 L2, 12 goals for and 11 against.
- Home league record: 3 played, W1 D0 L2, 3 goals for and 5 against.
- Away league record: 4 played, W1 D3 L0, 9 goals for and 6 against.
Toulouse have tended to reach half-time with little on the board and score after the break: 0.36 first-half goals against 1.36 in second halves across 11 competitive matches. Opponents have scored 1.0 before the interval and 0.73 after it, so the quiet starts come from Toulouse's own attacking rather than a generally tight game. The opening period is the quieter half of their matches.
- 11 competitive matches, 21 April to 16 October 2026: 0.36 first-half goals for and 1.36 second-half goals for per game.
- Goals against follow the opposite pattern: 1.0 per game in first halves, 0.73 in second halves.
- Toulouse scored in 9 of those 11 matches and kept one clean sheet.
The counts have held up regardless of results: 11 at Angers on 19 September, 11 at home to Strasbourg on 6 September, and at least five in each of their last six matches. Their opponents have rarely forced the ball back the other way, averaging 2.1 corners. It gives Troyes a steady source of set pieces even in games they lose, though corner counts remain one of the more variable numbers in a match.
- Eight competitive matches, 9 May to 17 October 2026: 7.5 corners per game.
- Opponents averaged 2.1 corners in the same window.
- Recent counts include 11 at Angers (19 September), 11 at home to Strasbourg (6 September), and 5 at both Lille and Lorient.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Toulouse are better placed and Troyes arrive on a long losing run, so avoiding a Troyes win is the safer read.
- Toulouse sit 12th on 9 points; Troyes are 17th on 4.
- Troyes have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 defeats in eight competitive matches, scoring 5 in seven league games.
- Toulouse have avoided defeat in four of seven league games; Troyes have lost five straight.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonToulouse or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Troyes have very little scoring output and have been shut out in multiple away games.
- Troyes average 0.63 goals per competitive match and 0.5 away.
- Troyes have scored two goals in three away league games, failing to score at Angers and Lille.
- Troyes have failed to score in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTroyes under 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams' recent matches usually produce at least two goals, and Troyes' defence has conceded heavily.
- Toulouse's competitive matches average 3.45 total goals; both teams scored in 8 of 11.
- Troyes' competitive matches average 2.75 total goals; they conceded in 7 of 8.
- Toulouse have scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Troyes have not kept an away clean sheet and their depleted defence faces a Toulouse side that usually scores.
- Troyes have kept no clean sheet in four away matches in the split.
- Toulouse scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches overall.
- Troyes are missing or have questionable defenders Ouzenadji, Titi and Boura.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostToulouse to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring numbers, especially Toulouse at home.
- Toulouse average 0.36 first-half goals for and 1.0 against; at home it is 0.2 for and 0.4 against.
- Troyes average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.75 against; away it is 0.5 for and 0.5 against.
- Combined home/away first-half goal expectation is around 0.7.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Troyes generate plenty of corners even in away defeats, and Toulouse concede a healthy share at home.
- Troyes average 7.5 corners per competitive match and 7.75 away.
- Troyes took 11 corners at Angers, 5 at Lille and 5 at Lorient in recent away games.
- Toulouse home matches concede 4.8 corners on average.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostTroyes over 4.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Toulouse's home matches have been card-heavy, though Troyes' away matches have been much quieter.
- Toulouse home matches average 4.2 total yellow cards (2.8 for Toulouse, 1.4 for opponents).
- Troyes away matches average 1.75 total yellow cards (0.5 for Troyes, 1.25 for opponents).
- Toulouse overall matches average 3.64 total cards; Troyes matches average 2.63.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have generally produced around eight or more shots on target.
- Toulouse average 5.6 shots on target at home; Troyes average 2.25 away.
- Toulouse home opponents average 4.8 shots on target; Troyes away opponents average 4.5.
- Overall, Toulouse matches average 9.36 total shots on target; Troyes matches average 8.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance60%