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Racing Strasbourg - Toulouse
🇫🇷 Ligue 1Upcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 15:15
Quick Take
The cleanest angle is Strasbourg with protection, not Strasbourg to win outright. Likely outcome: Racing control enough to avoid defeat and score, with Toulouse still capped by a strong home defensive trend and a run of low-scoring H2Hs; best value: Strasbourg or draw, with Strasbourg 0.0 as the stronger-price alternative.
Total Goals HomeOver 0.5 (Racing Strasbourg)80%+2.5pp
Double ChanceHome or Draw79%+15.0pp
1 St Half Double ChanceHome or Draw75%+3.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Home (Racing Strasbourg):The same model set still leaves a meaningful draw path alive, so the pure home win is less efficient than Strasbourg-side protection and the Toulouse-favoured market shape adds hidden-info risk.
Handicap Result Home -1:Recent Strasbourg-Toulouse meetings in Alsace were tight and the home thesis is about edge with protection, not a reliable two-goal winning margin.
1st Half Result Home (Racing Strasbourg):Strasbourg have led at halftime in only 20% of their last 10 matches, so the aggressive HT win angle is too binary compared with first-half 1X.
Strasbourg look like the more stable side in this matchup, mainly because the home and away splits are pulling clearly in their favor. They are 8-3-4 at home in Ligue 1 with a 24:13 goal record, while Toulouse are 5-2-8 away and have been conceding 2.2 goals per match across their last 10. Strasbourg also arrive in the better recent league run at WLWWD versus Toulouse's DLLLW, and they still have a sharper incentive signal in the table despite sitting only eighth.
Recent Form
Racing Strasbourg
L0-1Rayo VallecanoApr 30UEF
W3-2LorientApr 26L1
L0-2NiceApr 22CDF
L0-3RennesApr 19L1
W4-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 16UEF
L0-2FSV Mainz 05Apr 9UEF
W3-1NiceApr 4L1
W3-2NantesMar 22L1
D1-1HNK RijekaMar 19UEF
D0-0Paris FCMar 15L1
Toulouse
D2-2MonacoApr 25L1
L1-4LensApr 21CDF
L2-3LensApr 17L1
L0-4LilleApr 12L1
L1-3Paris Saint GermainApr 3L1
W1-0LorientMar 21L1
W4-3MetzMar 15L1
L0-1MarseilleMar 7L1
L0-1RennesFeb 28L1
D1-1Paris FCFeb 21L1
League Table
Ligue 1 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Racing Strasbourg | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 49-39 | 46 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 43-44 | 38 |
8pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 1D · 3WL1-0ToulousevStrasbourgDec 6, 2025L1
L2-1StrasbourgvToulouseMar 16, 2025L1
W1-2ToulousevStrasbourgJan 12, 2025L1
D0-0ToulousevStrasbourgApr 7, 2024L1
L2-0StrasbourgvToulouseAug 27, 2023L1
Toulouse: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Racing Strasbourg
8 out#5 A. Anselmino — Knee Injury
#9 J. Panichelli — Knee Injury
#32 V. Barco — Ankle Injury
#22 G. Doue — Inactive
#5 A. Anselmino — Knee Injury
#9 J. Panichelli — Knee Injury
#32 V. Barco — Ankle Injury
#22 G. Doue — Inactive
Toulouse
6 out#17 A. Francis — Broken Leg
#9 F. Magri — Knee Injury
#22 R. Messali — Ankle Injury
#17 A. Francis — Broken Leg
#9 F. Magri — Knee Injury
#22 R. Messali — Ankle Injury