Toulouse3Le Havre2

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 14–18On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 16:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 and Both Teams to Score 'No' at 2.00, with the draw at 3.60 as a value longshot.

Avoid the 1st Half Under 1.5 and Double Chance Toulouse or Draw due to poor value.

Context

Toulouse are 17th with two points and Le Havre are 16th with two points after four Ligue 1 matches.
A win would lift either side out of the relegation zone, while a loss could leave them adrift. Toulouse have lost both home matches without scoring, and Le Havre have not won in four league games, so both teams need a result.
- Toulouse are 17th with 2 points from 4 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).
- Le Havre are 16th with 2 points from 4 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).
- Toulouse have lost both home matches 0-1 and 0-2 without scoring.
- Le Havre have not won in their last four league matches.
Le Havre goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi has been ruled out for months after a stoppage-time save in the previous league match.
His long-term absence removes Le Havre's previous goalkeeper option and forces a different goalkeeping setup. Gauthier Gallon started the 12 September draw with Angers as his replacement, so he is the current reference for Le Havre's defensive line. The change is confirmed, but it leaves Le Havre without Mpasi's established presence for the trip to Toulouse.
- Le Havre said Mpasi was injured after a stoppage-time save in the previous league match.
- The club stated that its goalkeeper would be absent for long months.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 16:50 · Europe/BucharestHavre Athletic Club — Avant HAC - Angers SCO : suivre le sens de l'histoirehac.football · 11 Sep 2026
Toulouse have played two home matches in Ligue 1 this season.
They lost 0-1 to Lille and 0-2 to Lyon, failing to score in either match. This poor home scoring form is a concern against a Le Havre side that has kept one clean sheet away from home.
- Toulouse lost 0-1 at home to Lille on 2026-09-03.
- Toulouse lost 0-2 at home to Lyon on 2026-08-22.
- Toulouse have scored 0 goals in 2 home league matches.
Toulouse goalkeeper Guillaume Restes missed the 12 September draw at Lorient after a thigh problem.
His unresolved availability leaves uncertainty over Toulouse's starting goalkeeper and defensive communication. M. Niflore started in his place at Lorient, but no direct update has confirmed whether Restes will return against Le Havre. The situation remains a watch rather than a settled absence.
- Restes left Toulouse's 3 September match against Lille with a thigh muscle problem.
- L'Équipe reported on 10 September that Toulouse would not take him to Lorient.
- The 12 September Lorient-Toulouse match listing named M. Niflore in Toulouse's starting lineup.
- G. Restes started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 16:50 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe — Guillaume Restes forfait avec Toulouse à Lorient en Ligue 1www.lequipe.fr · 10 Sep 2026L'Équipe — Lorient - Toulouse, Ligue 1www.lequipe.fr · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are winless and struggling, with recent H2H showing a draw, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Toulouse home record: 0W 0D 2L
- Le Havre away record: 0W 1D 0L
- Last H2H at Toulouse ended 0-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Toulouse's home advantage and Le Havre's poor away record make Toulouse avoiding defeat more likely than not.
- Toulouse unbeaten in 2 away games (2 draws)
- Le Havre have not won away this season
- Toulouse have home advantage despite poor home form
BetBugs · Double ChancewonToulouse or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low half-time lead percentages, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Toulouse leading at half-time in only 27% of matches
- Le Havre leading at half-time in only 20% of matches
- Both teams often level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given the teams' low scoring and recent H2H, but confidence is low.
- Toulouse home games: 0 wins, 2 losses
- Le Havre away games: 1 draw
- Last H2H at Toulouse ended 0-0
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in relegation trouble with low scoring output, and recent H2H meetings have been tight, supporting a low-scoring game.
- Toulouse home league matches this season: 0 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 games
- Le Havre away league match this season: 1-1 draw
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have struggled, especially Toulouse at home, making it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Toulouse failed to score in both home league games this season
- Le Havre scored in only 1 of 4 league games
- Last H2H at Toulouse ended 0-0
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Toulouse first half goals per game: 0.7
- Le Havre first half goals per game: 0.7
- Both teams often level at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams needing points, the second half may see more attacking intent, but confidence is low due to overall low scoring.
- Toulouse average 1.3 goals per game overall
- Le Havre average 1.1 goals per game overall
- Second half often sees more goals as teams open up
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, suggesting a total under 9.5 corners is likely.
- Toulouse average 3.3 corners per game
- Le Havre average 4.3 corners per game
- Combined average corners: 7.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest shots on target numbers, making under 8.5 total shots on target likely.
- Toulouse average 3.7 shots on target per game
- Le Havre average 4.3 shots on target per game
- Combined average shots on target: 8.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively high yellow card averages, suggesting a card-heavy match.
- Toulouse average 2.1 yellow cards per game
- Le Havre average 2.3 yellow cards per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%