Willem II1Cambuur Leeuwarden6

HT 0–3Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 11–19On targetOn target 2–11CornersCorners 13–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 13:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Willem II are bottom with two points and no home league win, and they host a Cambuur side five league games unbeaten but missing two defenders.

Cambuur are the likelier winners, though their 2.5 price only matches that view. The draw at half-time at 2.5 is the one quoted price with a case behind it.

Context

Stegeman was removed after a run that left Willem II bottom of the table, and Koster moved from technical adviser to interim head coach on 21 October, with Danny Schenkel and Pim Hendrix beside him. The Cambuur match is therefore the first selection and first game plan of a new voice in the dugout, made by a coach who has had days rather than weeks with the group. Because the appointment is explicitly temporary while the club hunts a permanent successor, the change reads more as unsettled personnel and shape than as a committed new direction. The counterweight is continuity: Koster was already inside the club rather than arriving cold, and the squad at his disposal is the one that has taken two points from nine league games.
- John Stegeman was dismissed in the week before the fixture, with Willem II bottom of the Eredivisie.
- Adrie Koster had been working at the club as technical adviser and was appointed interim head coach on 21 October.
- Danny Schenkel and Pim Hendrix assist Koster while the club searches for a permanent successor.
- Koster is expected to be in charge for the Cambuur match.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:37 · Europe/Bucharest
The injury removes Cambuur's captain and one central-defender option for the season, and the club's own recruitment plan of two centre-backs in the winter window shows it is being treated as a structural hole rather than a short absence. For this match the practical question is who fills the central pairing while a suspension also bites elsewhere in the back line. The specific limitation is that Amofa had lost his starting place before the injury and had been on the bench for several weeks, so his absence does not remove a current first-choice defender from the eleven.
- Amofa, Cambuur's captain and a central defender, was carried off after coming on as a substitute in the 1-0 win at PEC Zwolle on 11 October.
- Amofa has undergone surgery, with an expected recovery of nine to twelve months.
- Cambuur intend to bring in two central defenders in the winter window with Amofa long-term absent.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:37 · Europe/Bucharest
A one-match ban removes a defender from the side that drew 2-2 with AZ, leaving Johan Plat to fill a back-line slot for Tilburg without him. Coming in the same fortnight as Amofa's long-term injury, the two absences together mean Cambuur's defence here is not the unit that started the season. The scope is limited, though: it is a single fixture and no replacement has been named, so the effect is one position rather than a change of system. The wider context is that the unbeaten run was assembled while the back line was already changing, so Cambuur have recent practice at covering absences.
- Bouah was dismissed in Cambuur's 2-2 draw with AZ Alkmaar on 18 October.
- He is suspended for the Willem II fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:37 · Europe/BucharestFixture availability list for Willem II v Cambuurwww.scorestv.com · 23 Oct 2026
Cambuur's start, 16 goals conceded across four defeats, has given way to five matches without loss and nine points, which has pulled them clear of the bottom places. The benchmark framing matters because Willem II have taken two points from nine games, so this is exactly the away fixture a revived side is expected to profit from, and the outcome will be read in Leeuwarden as evidence of which version of Cambuur is real. The caution is that three of the five unbeaten games were draws, so the run reflects solidity as much as a surge. The opponents in that run also ranged from AZ to Telstar, which makes the comparison with Willem II imperfect.
- Cambuur conceded 16 goals across four consecutive defeats before the run.
- They are five matches unbeaten, including a 2-2 draw with AZ Alkmaar and a 1-0 win at PEC Zwolle.
- The Willem II fixture is framed in Leeuwarden as an important benchmark for the side.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:37 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 83.3%

−9.3ppshort

First-half goals have been common in both teams' recent games.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both defences have conceded heavily, making three or more goals the more likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

−5.6ppshort

Both teams have regularly found the net and both defences have conceded often.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Cambuur arrive in better form and should create chances against the league's worst defence.
- Cambuur are 14th with 9 points and five league games unbeaten.
- They have scored 13 goals in 9 league games.
- Willem II have conceded 26 in 9 and 10 in 4 home league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCambuur LeeuwardenEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
The first half has often been tight for Willem II, and Cambuur do not always start quickly.
- Willem II were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Cambuur were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
- Willem II have scored 2 and conceded 10 first-half goals in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's stronger second-half scoring meets a Willem II side that fades after the break.
- Cambuur score 1.0 second-half goal per competitive match.
- Willem II concede 1.64 second-half goals per match.
- Willem II have lost the second half in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCambuur LeeuwardenEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's home form is very poor, but Cambuur's makeshift defence gives the hosts a real chance. Cambuur arrive in better form and should create chances against the league's worst defence.
- Willem II are 18th with 2 points from 9 league games and no home win.
- They have scored 9 and conceded 26 in the league.
- Cambuur are 14th with 9 points and five league games unbeaten.
- They have scored 13 goals in 9 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWillem II or Cambuur LeeuwardenEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first half has often been tight for Willem II, and Cambuur do not always start quickly. Cambuur have the better first-half scoring record and face a home side that concedes before the break.
- Willem II were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Cambuur were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
- Cambuur score 0.5 first-half goals per competitive match.
- They have scored first-half goals in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Cambuur LeeuwardenEstimated chance85%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both defences have conceded heavily, making three or more goals the more likely outcome.
- Willem II's 11 competitive matches average 3.64 total goals.
- Cambuur's 10 competitive matches average 3.70 total goals.
- Willem II's last six matches produced 21 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams have regularly found the net and both defences have conceded often.
- Willem II have scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and both teams scored in 8.
- Cambuur have both scored in 7 of 10 competitive matches.
- Cambuur have kept two clean sheets in 10; Willem II one in 11.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II have struggled to reach two goals, even with Cambuur's defensive problems.
- Willem II have scored 3 goals in 4 home league games.
- They scored one goal or fewer in five of their last six matches.
- Cambuur have conceded three goals in their last four league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonWillem II under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur have often been held to a single goal away from home.
- Cambuur have scored 5 goals in 4 away league games.
- Willem II concede 2.55 goals per match but kept one clean sheet in 11.
- Cambuur scored once in three of their four away league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCambuur Leeuwarden under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals have been common in both teams' recent games.
- Willem II's competitive matches average 1.09 first-half goals.
- Cambuur's competitive matches average 1.8 first-half goals.
- Across the two teams' last six matches each, four were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring second halves.
- Willem II's competitive matches average 2.55 second-half goals.
- Cambuur's competitive matches average 1.9 second-half goals.
- Willem II's last six matches produced 14 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced enough corner volume to clear 8.5.
- Willem II's matches average 10.45 corners overall.
- Cambuur's matches average 9.7 corners overall.
- Willem II's last six matches averaged 11.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's matches have been shot-heavy, and Cambuur's away games also produce volume.
- Willem II's competitive matches average 32.3 total shots.
- Cambuur's competitive matches average 27 total shots.
- Willem II's last six matches averaged 34 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have regularly produced enough on-target attempts to clear 7.5.
- Willem II's competitive matches average 9.9 shots on target in total.
- Cambuur's competitive matches average 9.7 shots on target in total.
- Willem II's last six matches averaged 9.5 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's recent games have been card-heavy, and the home side can add to that.
- Cambuur's matches average 4.4 yellow cards combined.
- Cambuur's last six matches averaged 5.0 yellow cards combined.
- Willem II received four yellow cards in their last match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance54%