EredivisieFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Excelsior are the form side and the most likely winner, with the double chance (Draw or Excelsior) offering a high-confidence, low-edge play.
The best value is on second-half over 1.5 goals at 2.20, where the model sees a 55% probability against an implied 45.5%. Avoid backing Willem II outright and skip the over 2.5 goals line, as both are priced without value.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
ExcelsiorMarket 45.5% · BetBugs 55%
Excelsior's superior early-season form and defensive solidity away from home give them a clear edge over a struggling Willem II side.
Market 71.4% · BetBugs 75%
Willem II's poor form and defensive vulnerability make it highly unlikely they win, so Excelsior or a draw is the safest outcome.
Market 45.5% · BetBugs 55%
With Willem II's defense tiring and Excelsior's attacking depth, the second half is likely to produce multiple goals.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 36% vs our estimate 25% leaves no value; Willem II's poor form and defensive record make the home win unlikely.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-10 | 1 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7-3 | 6 |