EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

Cambuur Leeuwarden3NEC Nijmegen0

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharest

NEC Nijmegen are the likely winners based on away form and head-to-head dominance, but the odds (1.43) already imply a 70% chance, far above our 55% estimate, so there is no value in backing them.

The goals markets are also overpriced, with Over 2.5 at 1.33 and BTTS Yes at 1.50 offering negative edges. The best approach is to avoid these popular bets and look for value elsewhere, as NEC's Europa League congestion and the loss of Ouaissa could make the match closer than expected.

Context

Cambuur are 18th in the Eredivisie with 1 point from 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 18.
Their home record is especially poor: three defeats with 3 goals scored and 13 conceded. This early-season pressure could make them more desperate for points, but their defensive record suggests they may struggle to contain NEC's attack.
- Cambuur are 18th with 1 point from 5 matches (0W, 1D, 4L).
- At home they have lost all 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 13.
- Their last league match was a 2-2 draw at Telstar on 2026-09-06.
NEC are 10th with 6 points from 4 matches, with a perfect away record of 2 wins from 2.
They beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 on 2026-08-29 and Willem II 4-1 on 2026-08-15 away from home. This away form contrasts sharply with Cambuur's home struggles, suggesting NEC can create chances and score against a vulnerable defence.
- NEC have won both away league matches, scoring 7 and conceding 2.
- They beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 on 2026-08-29 and Willem II 4-1 on 2026-08-15.
- NEC are 10th with 6 points from 4 matches.
Cambuur's home record shows 3 losses with 13 goals conceded.
They lost 4-1 to Twente on 2026-08-30 and 5-2 to Feyenoord on 2026-08-23 at home. This pattern of conceding multiple goals could be exploited by NEC, who have scored seven goals in their two away wins.
- Cambuur have conceded 13 goals in 3 home matches.
- They lost 4-1 to Twente on 2026-08-30 and 5-2 to Feyenoord on 2026-08-23.
- Their overall goals conceded average is 2.4 per game.
Cambuur's latest competitive selection departed from the FC Twente starting pattern, leaving the attacking configuration open ahead of N.E.C.
Five changes from the FC Twente match included a new front three of Nicolas Binder, Ilyes Hamache and Fabian Kvam at Telstar. Jason Ceka replaced Binder in the 68th minute, so the attacking structure remains unsettled and the starting trio for this match is not fixed.
- SC Cambuur reported five changes to its starting team from the FC Twente match.
- Nicolas Binder, Ilyes Hamache and Fabian Kvam started together in the front three at Telstar.
- Jason Ceka replaced Binder in the 68th minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 07:42 · Europe/BucharestSC Cambuur match report: Telstar 2-2 Cambuurcambuur.nl · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

NEC Nijmegen

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

NEC's away form and H2H dominance support an away win, but the odds already imply a 70% chance, far above our 55% estimate, leaving no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or NEC Nijmegen

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is extremely safe but priced at 1.14, leaving no cushion against our 80% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Cambuur's leaky home defense and NEC's away scoring form support goals, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Cambuur's home scoring tendency and NEC's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible, but the odds are slightly against value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's strong away form and Cambuur's poor home record, reinforced by H2H dominance, make an away win the most likely result.
- NEC away record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 2 against.
- Cambuur home record this season: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 3 goals for, 13 against.
- H2H last 5: NEC won 4, drew 1, including 2-1 and 1-0 away wins at Cambuur.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNEC NijmegenEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's inability to win at home and NEC's unbeaten away record make a home win unlikely.
- Cambuur have not won at home this season (0W 0D 3L).
- NEC have not lost away this season (2W 0D 0L).
- H2H: NEC unbeaten in last 5 vs Cambuur (4W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or NEC NijmegenEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's poor first-half record at home gives NEC a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Cambuur trailing at half-time in 60% of matches, leading only 7%.
- NEC leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing 33%.
- Cambuur first-half goal difference at home: 0 for, 6 against in last 3 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNEC NijmegenEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NEC's stronger away second-half performances contrast with Cambuur's late collapses.
- Cambuur have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- NEC have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cambuur's home second-half goal difference: 3 for, 7 against.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNEC NijmegenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NEC's ability to start well away and Cambuur's poor home starts make a wire-to-wire away win possible.
- Cambuur have not led at half-time in any home match this season.
- NEC have led at half-time in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- H2H: NEC won 4 of last 5, often controlling matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostNEC Nijmegen/NEC NijmegenEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show high scoring, especially Cambuur's leaky home defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Cambuur home matches average 5.3 total goals (3 for, 13 against in 3 games).
- NEC away matches average 4.5 total goals (7 for, 2 against in 2 games).
- Cambuur's last 5 home matches: 1-4, 2-5, 0-4, 2-1, 1-1 (4 of 5 over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's home scoring tendency and NEC's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Cambuur scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- NEC conceded in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cambuur average 1.2 goals per match overall, NEC concede 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Cambuur often conceding early at home.
- Cambuur's last 5 home matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (0,2,3,1,0).
- NEC's last 5 away matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (1,0,2,0,1).
- Cambuur average 0.3 first-half goals for, 1.3 against; NEC average 0.8 for, 0.8 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's defensive frailty often leads to multiple second-half goals, especially at home.
- Cambuur's last 5 home matches: second-half goals in all 5, with 3+ in 3 matches.
- NEC's last 5 away matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5, with 2+ in 3 matches.
- Cambuur concede heavily late at home (13 goals in 3 home games).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, pushing the total above 9.5.
- Cambuur average 4.6 corners per match, concede 5.6 (opponent corners).
- NEC average 5.9 corners per match, concede 4.3.
- Combined average corners in Cambuur matches: 10.2; in NEC matches: 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around 9 shots on target, making over 8.5 plausible.
- Cambuur average 3.6 shots on target per match, concede 5.4.
- NEC average 5.5 shots on target per match, concede 4.1.
- Combined average shots on target in Cambuur matches: 9.0; in NEC matches: 9.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's matches tend to see more cards, and the competitive nature could push the total over 3.5.
- Cambuur average 1.9 yellow cards per match, opponents 2.1.
- NEC average 1.5 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.6.
- Combined average cards in Cambuur matches: 4.0; in NEC matches: 3.1.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-2CambuurvNEC NijmegenFeb 27, 2024KNV

D0-0NEC NijmegenvCambuurFeb 11, 2023ERE

W0-1CambuurvNEC NijmegenNov 4, 2022ERE

W1-2CambuurvNEC NijmegenApr 3, 2022ERE

W1-2CambuurvNEC NijmegenDec 16, 2021KNV

Cambuur Leeuwarden unbeaten in 5 meetingsCambuur Leeuwarden: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden Relegation - Eerste Divisie	5	0	1	4	6-18	1	DLLLL
10	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	9-7	6	LWWL

5pt gap between teamsCambuur Leeuwarden in relegation zone

Recent Form