EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

Willem II2Heerenveen2

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 12–13On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 9–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Heerenveen are the likely winners based on form and head-to-head, but the odds offer no value.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95, driven by Willem II’s second-half defensive collapses and Heerenveen’s aggressive game-state management.

Context

Willem II are in the Eredivisie relegation zone after two matches.
They lost 4-1 at home to NEC Nijmegen on 15 August and 4-1 away to GO Ahead Eagles on 8 August. Those heavy defeats show a defence that has struggled badly, and Heerenveen will look to test that weakness again.
- Willem II lost 4-1 at home to NEC Nijmegen on 15 August 2026.
- Willem II lost 4-1 away to GO Ahead Eagles on 8 August 2026.
- Willem II have 0 points from 2 matches with 2 goals scored and 8 conceded.
Heerenveen are ninth in the Eredivisie with four points.
They beat Twente 1-0 at home on 9 August, drew 2-2 away at Ajax on 16 August, and lost 2-0 at home to PEC Zwolle on 22 August. Their away draw at Ajax shows they can compete on the road, but the home loss to Zwolle suggests they are not consistent.
- Heerenveen beat Twente 1-0 at home on 9 August 2026.
- Heerenveen drew 2-2 away at Ajax on 16 August 2026.
- Heerenveen lost 2-0 at home to PEC Zwolle on 22 August 2026.
Willem II goalkeeper T. Didillon is out with a hamstring injury sustained against Go Ahead Eagles.
His absence forces Willem II to use a different goalkeeper against Heerenveen. The club has not named a replacement, so the change in goal is confirmed but the specific starter remains uncertain.
- Willem II announced on 13 August that Didillon-Hödl sustained the hamstring injury against Go Ahead Eagles.
- The club said its assessment required several months of rehabilitation.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:57 · Europe/BucharestWillem II: Didillon-Hödl enkele maanden uitgeschakeldwww.willem-ii.nl · 13 Aug 2026
The last meeting between these teams was in April 2025.
Heerenveen won 3-1 at home on 4 April 2025, and Willem II lost 2-1 at home on 8 December 2024. The most recent match at Willem II's ground went to Heerenveen, which may give the visitors confidence.
- Heerenveen beat Willem II 3-1 at home on 4 April 2025.
- Heerenveen beat Willem II 2-1 away on 8 December 2024.
- Willem II drew 0-0 at home with Heerenveen on 5 March 2022.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Heerenveen

1.75fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Heerenveen's recent H2H dominance and Willem II's poor defensive start give the away side an edge, though Heerenveen's own inconsistency tempers confidence.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Heerenveen

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Willem II's poor form and home struggles make a home win unlikely, supporting the double chance for Heerenveen or draw.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Willem II conceded 4 goals in each of their two league matches and Heerenveen have scored in 2 of 3, but the odds imply a 71% chance which is far above our 58% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score while also conceding, but the odds imply a 68% chance which is above our 62% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Heerenveen's recent H2H dominance and Willem II's poor defensive start give the away side an edge, though Heerenveen's own inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Heerenveen won last two H2H league meetings (3-1, 2-1).
- Willem II lost both Eredivisie matches this season, conceding 8 goals.
- Heerenveen away record this season: 1 draw (2-2 at Ajax).
- Willem II home record this season: 1 loss (1-4 vs NEC).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHeerenveenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's poor form and home struggles make a home win unlikely, supporting the double chance for Heerenveen or draw.
- Willem II have 0 points from 2 matches, with a -6 goal difference.
- Heerenveen have 4 points from 3 matches.
- Heerenveen unbeaten in last 2 away league matches (draw at Ajax, win at Volendam last season).
- Willem II have lost 4 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HeerenveenEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Heerenveen win is plausible given Willem II's second-half defensive issues, but low probability due to specific sequence.
- Heerenveen drew at halftime in 2 of 3 league matches this season.
- Willem II drew at halftime in 1 of 2 league matches.
- Heerenveen have won 1 of 3 league matches, all after halftime.
- Willem II have lost both matches, with second-half collapses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/HeerenveenEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's leaky defense and Heerenveen's attacking intent, combined with recent H2H goal totals, point to a high-scoring game.
- Willem II matches this season average 5.0 total goals (2 scored, 8 conceded in 2 games).
- Heerenveen matches this season average 2.33 total goals (3 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
- Last two H2H meetings produced 4 and 3 goals.
- Willem II conceded 4 goals in each of their two league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score while also conceding, making BTTS likely.
- Willem II scored in both league matches this season (1 each).
- Heerenveen scored in 2 of 3 league matches this season.
- Heerenveen conceded in 2 of 3 league matches.
- Willem II conceded in both league matches (4 each).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of two first-half goals, but low confidence due to small sample and variance.
- Willem II first-half goals: 0.7 average (last 15 matches).
- Heerenveen first-half goals: 0.9 average (last 15 matches).
- Willem II first-half goals conceded: 0.4 average.
- Heerenveen first-half goals conceded: 0.8 average.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves often open up as teams chase results, and Willem II's defensive frailty increases the chance of late goals.
- Willem II conceded 4 goals in each league match, many in second half.
- Heerenveen's recent match vs PEC Zwolle had 2 second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to push late: Heerenveen's aggressive game-state management noted.
- Willem II's fitness may drop after high defensive workload.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total line is close to their combined average, making over 9.5 a near coin flip.
- Willem II average 5.0 corners per match (last 15).
- Heerenveen average 5.3 corners per match (last 15).
- Combined average corners: 10.3.
- Recent H2H matches had 3 and 8 corners (limited data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card totals are unpredictable, but the line is near league average, giving a roughly even chance of over 3.5 cards.
- Willem II average 1.2 yellow cards per match (last 15).
- Heerenveen average 1.2 yellow cards per match (last 15).
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.4, but red cards rare.
- Referee assignment unknown, but Eredivisie averages around 3.5 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L3-1HeerenveenvWillem IIApr 4, 2025ERE

L1-2Willem IIvHeerenveenDec 8, 2024ERE

D0-0Willem IIvHeerenveenMar 5, 2022ERE

L2-1HeerenveenvWillem IINov 21, 2021ERE

W3-1Willem IIvHeerenveenMar 13, 2021ERE

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Willem II Eredivisie (Relegation)	2	0	0	2	2-8	0	LL
9	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	3-4	4	LDW

4pt gap between teamsWillem II in relegation zone

Recent Form

Willem II

L1-4NEC NijmegenAug 15ERE

L1-4GO Ahead EaglesAug 8ERE

W2-1OFIAug 1FRI

W1-0KV MechelenJul 25FRI

D2-2FC EindhovenJul 11FRI

L1-2Quick BoysJul 4FRI

L1-2FC VolendamMay 20EER

W2-0Almere City FCMay 16EER

W1-0Almere City FCMay 13EER

D1-1WaalwijkMay 9EER

W1-0WaalwijkMay 5EER

W2-1DordrechtApr 24EER

W3-0Jong AZApr 17EER

W2-1Almere City FCApr 12EER

W1-0RodaApr 6EER

Heerenveen

L0-2PEC ZwolleAug 22ERE

D2-2AjaxAug 16ERE

W1-0TwenteAug 9ERE

W3-2Volos NFCAug 1FRI

D4-4OH LeuvenJul 25FRI

W3-2Club Brugge KVJul 17FRI

W7-2De GraafschapJul 3FRI

L2-3UtrechtMay 21ERE

D0-0AjaxMay 17ERE

L0-2NAC BredaMay 11ERE

W2-0FC VolendamMay 3ERE

W2-1Fortuna SittardApr 25ERE

L0-3AZ AlkmaarApr 12ERE

W4-1HeraclesApr 5ERE

D2-2NEC NijmegenMar 22ERE

Squad & Injuries

Willem II

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Heerenveen

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3