Stjarnan66 – 0Valur Reykjavik0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Stjarnan's home record gives them a narrow advantage, though Valur's recent scoring and head-to-head record keep the match close.

• Stjarnan's last 7 home league matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match.
• Valur's last 6 away league matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 1.33 scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
• Valur have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, but Stjarnan won the most recent 3-2 in August.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStjarnanEstimated chance39%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Stjarnan's home record gives them a narrow advantage, though Valur's recent scoring and head-to-head record keep the match close. Valur's recent scoring and head-to-head record give them a solid chance despite playing away.

• Stjarnan's last 7 home league matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match.
• Valur's last 6 away league matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 1.33 scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
• Valur are unbeaten in three of their last four league matches and scored four against KA and Thor.
• Valur won 4-2 at Stjarnan in April and have won three of the last five meetings.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonStjarnan or Valur ReykjavikEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Stjarnan are narrowly favoured to lead at half-time because their home first-half scoring and defence are slightly better than Valur's away numbers. A level first half has a solid case because both teams' relevant first-half scoring rates are low and close.

• Stjarnan's home first-half split: 0.86 goals for, 0.57 against per match.
• Valur's away first-half split: 0.67 goals for, 0.50 against per match.
• Valur were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
• Both teams average under one first-half goal in the relevant home/away splits.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance69%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Recent meetings and current scoring rates both point to a high-scoring game.

• The last five head-to-head meetings all had at least three goals, with totals of 5, 6, 5, 3 and 4.
• Valur's last six matches produced 5, 8, 2, 5, 3 and 4 goals; five went over 2.5.
• Stjarnan's home matches average 3.0 total goals, while Valur's away matches average 3.33.