Stjarnan0KA Akureyri3

HT 0–2Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 17:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Stjarnan have won both 2026 league meetings with KA Akureyri and are unbeaten in five, but their season home record is four wins from 11 and KA have drawn four of 11 away.

Stjarnan look the likelier winner and a high-scoring game is the strongest read. Only the draw at 4.75 offers anything among the prices reviewed; Stjarnan at 1.80, KA at 3.10 and Over 2.5 at 1.20 ask for more than the records justify.

Context

The tracked home window is seven matches, not a full season, and it shows a side scoring twice a game at home while conceding less than one. The wider standings pull the other way: Stjarnan have won four, drawn two and lost five of 11 home league games in 2026. That gap is why KA Akureyri can be given a realistic chance of taking a point here, and why this should not be treated as a routine home win.
- Stjarnan's seven tracked home matches ran from 28 June to 13 September 2026, producing 6 wins and 1 draw.
- They averaged 2.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per home match in that window.
- Stjarnan kept three clean sheets and both teams scored in four of those seven home matches.
Eight away matches is a small sample, but no wins and no clean sheets in that run is a clear drag on KA's chances at Stjarnan. Their scoring is the counterweight: 1.5 goals per away game and a goal in six of eight, including four at Valur Reykjavik on 17 August. That combination points to a match Stjarnan can win without keeping KA quiet.
- KA Akureyri's eight tracked away matches, 3 July to 20 September 2026, ended 0 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats.
- They conceded 2.875 goals per away match and kept no clean sheet in that window.
- They scored in six of those eight away matches, at 1.5 goals per game.
The goals come from both ends: Stjarnan have scored 23 and conceded 24 at home, KA Akureyri 19 and 27 on the road, in 11 games each. That is the clearest evidence for a busy scoreline here, alongside Stjarnan's tracked home average of 2.29 goals scored. The caveat is that two of the last five meetings finished 1-1, so the goals angle is not automatic.
- Stjarnan's 2026 home league record is 23 goals for and 24 against in 11 games.
- KA Akureyri's 2026 away league record is 19 goals for and 27 against in 11 games.
- Standings snapshot taken 7 October 2026.
Stjarnan's 3-2 win in Akureyri on the opening matchday is the only meeting between these clubs verified for the 2026 league season, with Emil Atlason scoring twice and Örvar Eggertsson adding Stjarnan's other goal. It gives this fixture a clear head-to-head starting point: Stjarnan have already taken three points in Akureyri, while KA Akureyri have already lost at home to this opponent. The match sits months away from the current run of results and squad conditions, so it frames the season series rather than indicating how either side is likely to line up or play now.
- KA Akureyri lost 2-3 at home to UMF Stjarnan on the opening matchday of the 2026 Besta deild karla.
- Emil Atlason scored twice for Stjarnan, on 3 and 56 minutes.
- Örvar Eggertsson scored Stjarnan's second goal on 13 minutes.
- Birgir Baldvinsson struck on 33 minutes and J. Robertsson on 59 minutes for Akureyri.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/BucharestOpening-matchday match tickerwww.kicker.de · 26 Apr 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan have the stronger recent head-to-head record and home advantage, while KA Akureyri have struggled to win away.
- Stjarnan are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head meetings, winning both 2026 league games.
- Stjarnan rank 7th with 28 points; KA Akureyri rank 11th with 20 points.
- Stjarnan's recent home league matches include a 2-0 win, a 2-2 draw and a 4-2 win.
- KA Akureyri have not won any of their last eight away league matches in the tracked sample (0W 3D 5L).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Stjarnan start strongly at home and KA Akureyri often concede before half-time.
- Stjarnan average 1.14 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29 in tracked home matches.
- KA Akureyri concede 1.13 first-half goals per away match.
- Stjarnan led 2-1 at half-time in the 2026 meeting in Akureyri.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan are strong after half-time at home and KA Akureyri concede many second-half goals away.
- Stjarnan average 1.14 second-half goals at home and concede 0.57.
- KA Akureyri concede 1.75 second-half goals per away match.
- Stjarnan won the second half 2-1 at home against IBV Vestmannaeyjar on 6 September.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Stjarnan have the stronger recent head-to-head record and home advantage, while KA Akureyri have struggled to win away. KA Akureyri have shown they can grind out draws on the road, and Stjarnan have not won every home match this season.
- Stjarnan are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head meetings, winning both 2026 league games.
- Stjarnan rank 7th with 28 points; KA Akureyri rank 11th with 20 points.
- Three of the last five head-to-head meetings were decided by a single goal or drawn.
- Stjarnan's season home record includes 2 draws in 11 home games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan start strongly at home and KA Akureyri often concede before half-time. First halves can be balanced, and KA Akureyri have shown they can go in level away from home.
- Stjarnan average 1.14 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29 in tracked home matches.
- KA Akureyri concede 1.13 first-half goals per away match.
- KA Akureyri drew the first half 1-1 away at Fram Reykjavik on 30 August.
- Stjarnan's overall first-half averages are close: 0.93 goals for and 1.07 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams have high-scoring league records and recent head-to-head games have gone over 2.5 goals.
- Stjarnan's 22 league matches average 4.18 total goals (42 for, 50 against).
- KA Akureyri's 22 league matches average 3.77 total goals (35 for, 48 against).
- The last three head-to-head meetings produced 4, 5 and 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score regularly in their respective home and away matches, and recent head-to-head meetings have featured goals for both sides.
- Stjarnan have scored in all seven tracked home matches.
- KA Akureyri have scored in six of eight tracked away matches.
- The last five head-to-head meetings all had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan score regularly at home and KA Akureyri concede many goals on the road.
- Stjarnan average 2.09 goals per home league match (23 in 11).
- Stjarnan scored at least twice in each of their last three home league matches.
- KA Akureyri concede 2.45 goals per away league match (27 in 11).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostStjarnan over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
KA Akureyri have scored regularly away from home and Stjarnan concede at home.
- KA Akureyri average 1.73 goals per away league match (19 in 11).
- KA Akureyri scored two or more in two of their last three away league matches.
- Stjarnan concede 2.18 goals per home league match (24 in 11).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonKA Akureyri over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA Akureyri usually score away from home, so Stjarnan are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- KA Akureyri scored in six of eight tracked away matches.
- Stjarnan conceded in four of seven tracked home matches.
- KA Akureyri scored four goals away at Valur Reykjavik on 17 August.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKA Akureyri to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan score consistently at home and KA Akureyri have not kept an away clean sheet in the tracked sample.
- KA Akureyri kept no clean sheets in eight tracked away matches.
- Stjarnan scored in all seven tracked home matches.
- Stjarnan average 2.09 goals per home league match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostStjarnan to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA Akureyri usually score away, making a Stjarnan win with a clean sheet less likely.
- None of the last five head-to-head meetings ended with Stjarnan winning to nil.
- KA Akureyri scored in six of eight tracked away matches.
- Stjarnan conceded in four of seven tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Recent matches for both teams have regularly produced at least one first-half goal.
- Stjarnan's last three home matches produced first-half totals of 2, 1 and 3 goals.
- KA Akureyri's last three away matches produced first-half totals of 1, 2 and 4 goals.
- The 2026 meeting in Akureyri had three first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Stjarnan often keep first-half clean sheets at home, making both teams scoring before half-time less likely.
- Stjarnan kept first-half clean sheets in two of their last three home matches.
- Stjarnan failed to score in the first half at home against IBV Vestmannaeyjar on 6 September.
- KA Akureyri failed to score in the first half away at FH Hafnarfjordur on 13 September.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams often produce at least two second-half goals.
- KA Akureyri's last three away matches produced second-half totals of 2, 2 and 4 goals.
- Stjarnan's last three home matches produced second-half totals of 0, 3 and 3 goals.
- The 2026 meeting in Akureyri had two second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%