KA Akureyri5IBV Vestmannaeyjar1

HT 3–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–186%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-two survival match: KA are 11th on 20 points, ÍBV 12th on 18, and ÍBV have drawn three and lost five of their eight away matches in the tracked sample.

A tight, home-favoured game — a narrow KA win or a draw — is the read. Three quoted prices hold up: under 2.5 goals at 2.70, the draw at 4.75, both teams to score – no at 2.30. KA at 1.48 does not.

Context

KA's own post-match language after the 10 October win at Stjarnan placed that result inside "the fight to remain in the best division", and the 4-1 defeat at Valur a week later did nothing to settle it. That matters here because the hosts, not the visitors, are the side carrying a season-long objective into the game, which shapes how willing they will be to protect a draw as it develops. The specific limit is that KA's actual position relative to the drop is not established in this evidence, so how much a win, draw or defeat is worth in points terms cannot be pinned down from what is available.
- KA's 3-0 win at Stjarnan on 10 October was labelled "three huge points" in the fight to remain in the best division.
- KA then lost 4-1 away to Valur on 17 October in the following round.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Three draws and five defeats from eight away games, with no clean sheet and both teams scoring in four of them, describes a visiting side that has struggled to turn road matches into wins. The sample is small and does not settle this result, but it frames the task ÍBV face. KA's tracked home split of 3W-1D-2L in six matches makes the contrast visible without making it decisive.
- Eight away matches between 28 June 2026 and 10 October 2026: 0 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.
- Four goals scored and eight conceded across those eight away matches; no clean sheets.
- Both teams scored in four of the eight away matches.
In the 19 July meeting ÍBV twice came from behind, the second time through Vincente Valor on 85 minutes while the hosts were a man short. That gives a concrete recent picture of two teams whose leads did not hold and whose substitutions and late-game structure carried real weight. Reading it as a repeatable pattern is the risk: it is a single match, and it took place in Vestmannaeyjar with ÍBV at home, whereas the venue and the home-side advantage are reversed this time.
- KA and ÍBV drew 2-2 at Hásteinsvöllur on 19 July in matchweek 15.
- André Rømer scored on 35 minutes, Omar Sowe levelled on 67, Birgir Baldvinsson made it 2-1 on 73 and Vincente Valor equalised on 85.
- ÍBV played the closing stages with ten men.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:29 · Europe/BucharestMatch report, ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-2 KA Akureyriscout-mania.com · 19 Jul 2026
Sigurður Nói Jóhannsson came into the top division for the first time in KA's 3-0 win at Stjarnan on 10 October, in a match the club treated as one of the most important of its season. A debut in that setting is a real milestone for a club still short of settled options, and it widens who the coaching staff can call on across the closing rounds. How much that is worth against ÍBV is unresolved: the record shows one appearance, with nothing indicating he will start or carry a significant share of the minutes.
- Sigurður Nói Jóhannsson played his first match in the top division for KA in the 3-0 win against Stjarnan on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:29 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KA have the stronger home scoring record and are unbeaten in the last five meetings, while ÍBV have not won away this season.
- KA home split: 3W-1D-2L, 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match (6).
- ÍBV away split: 0W-3D-5L, 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded per match (8).
- KA are unbeaten in the last five meetings: two wins and three draws.
- League points: KA 20 (11th), ÍBV 18 (12th).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKA AkureyriEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level first half the strongest single outcome.
- KA home first half: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded per match (6).
- ÍBV away first half: 0.38 scored, 1.00 conceded per match (8).
- Both teams average under one first-half goal.
- Combined first-half total is 1.44 goals per match across these splits.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA have the stronger home scoring record and are unbeaten in the last five meetings, while ÍBV have not won away this season. Three of the last five meetings were drawn and ÍBV have drawn three away matches, so a share is plausible.
- KA home split: 3W-1D-2L, 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match (6).
- ÍBV away split: 0W-3D-5L, 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded per match (8).
- Three of the last five meetings ended level.
- ÍBV have drawn three of eight away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKA Akureyri or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA have the slightly stronger first-half attacking numbers at home, though the half is usually low-scoring. Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level first half the strongest single outcome.
- KA home first half: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded per match (6).
- ÍBV away first half: 0.38 scored, 1.00 conceded per match (8).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKA Akureyri or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have conceded regularly and the July meeting had four goals.
- KA overall matches average 3.93 total goals (1.73 for, 2.20 against).
- KA home matches average 3.33 total goals (6 matches).
- ÍBV away matches average 2.75 total goals (8 matches).
- July meeting produced four goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have scored in most of their matches and the July meeting was 2-2.
- KA overall: both teams scored in 9 of 15; home split 3 of 6.
- ÍBV overall: both teams scored in 9 of 15; away split 4 of 8.
- July meeting finished 2-2.
- KA recent six: both teams scored in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams concede first-half goals at a steady rate in the relevant home and away splits.
- KA home first half: 1.50 total goals per match (6).
- ÍBV away first half: 1.38 total goals per match (8).
- Both teams concede 1.00 first-half goal per match in these splits.
- KA's home first half has produced goals at both ends.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%