Chapecoense2Fluminense RJ1

HT 1–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–363%

PossPossession 26%–74%ShotsShots 6–16On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense host a Fluminense side sitting fifth, but the visitors' three wins from 15 away matches keep this from being a mismatch.

Fluminense should avoid defeat, and Chapecoense should find at least one goal at home. Only one reviewed price comes out ahead: Chapecoense to score at 1.48; Fluminense to score at 1.17 and a draw-or-Fluminense result at 1.20 ask too much.

Context

The fixture listing named four unavailable Chapecoense players, including suspended Kauan and three injured players. That reduces the set of players available to the home side for this specific match. The listing does not establish their intended roles or the replacements chosen, which limits how precisely the selection effect can be assessed.
- Kauan was listed as suspended.
- Heitor, Rafael Carvalheira and Robert were listed as injured.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 00:19 · Europe/BucharestFixture listingwww.fotmob.com · 24 Oct 2026
Fluminense’s fixture listing contained six named absences for the match at Arena Condá. The group includes a suspension and five further unavailable players, narrowing the visitors’ options for the trip. The available evidence does not specify the precise causes or projected roles for all six, so the extent of any lineup change remains uncertain.
- Jefferson Savarino was listed as suspended.
- Julián Millán, Martinelli, Riquelme, Alisson and John Kennedy were listed as unavailable.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 00:19 · Europe/BucharestFixture listingwww.fotmob.com · 24 Oct 2026
Their 51-point season rests heavily on home form. On the road they have scored 20 and conceded 23 across 15 matches, so a trip to the bottom club is not the routine away win the standings suggest. That split is the main reason this fixture stays competitive on paper.
- Serie A 2026: Fluminense home record 11 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 16 matches, 29 goals for and 16 against
- Serie A 2026: Fluminense away record 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses in 15 matches, 20 goals for and 23 against
- Overall: 14 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses in 31 matches, 5th on 51 points
They scored once after the interval and took 21 shots, but the game had already gone by half-time. It is the latest home evidence for a side with two wins in 14 league matches at Arena Condá, and it shows how quickly those matches have turned against them.
- 12 October 2026: Chapecoense 1-4 Atletico Paranaense in Serie A
- Half-time score 0-3
- Chapecoense took 21 shots with 7 on target; Atletico Paranaense had 11 shots with 8 on target

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
The stronger side should avoid defeat, and both teams' records point heavily to draws alongside Fluminense wins.
- Fluminense sit 5th on 51 points; Chapecoense are 20th on 18
- Fluminense away record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses in 15
- Chapecoense home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses in 14
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Fluminense RJEstimated chance71%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Fluminense score regularly on the road and Chapecoense have conceded in almost every home game this season.
- Fluminense scored in 5 of their 6 away matches, averaging 1.5 goals
- Fluminense average 1.6 goals per game across 15 league and cup matches
- Chapecoense concede 2.07 goals per game overall and 2.17 at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFluminense RJ over 0.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Even a struggling Chapecoense side finds a goal at home, and Fluminense have not shut anyone out away from home recently.
- Chapecoense have scored 19 goals in 14 home league games (1.36 per game)
- Fluminense have kept no clean sheet in their last 6 away matches
- Chapecoense scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonChapecoense over 0.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Chapecoense concede early at home and Fluminense's away first halves still produce goals.
- Chapecoense home first halves average 1.83 goals (0.5 for, 1.33 against)
- Fluminense away first halves average 1.0 goal
- Chapecoense have conceded 1.14 first-half goals per game overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Fluminense concede away and Chapecoense usually find one goal at home, so both scoring is the likelier shape.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Fluminense's 6 away matches
- Fluminense have no away clean sheet in 6; Chapecoense two clean sheets in 14
- Both teams scored in 10 of Fluminense's 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Chapecoense's leaky defence pushes games past three goals even though their own scoring is limited.
- Chapecoense matches average 3.0 total goals (0.93 for, 2.07 against)
- Chapecoense home matches average 3.17 total goals
- Fluminense away matches average 3.33 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense do most of their scoring after the break and Chapecoense concede steadily in the second half.
- Fluminense away second halves average 2.33 goals (1.17 for, 1.17 against)
- Fluminense overall second halves average 2.0 goals
- Chapecoense second halves average 1.43 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Fluminense pick up cards on the road and a bottom-of-table home side fighting relegation usually adds to the count.
- Fluminense away matches average 5.67 yellows combined (3.0 own, 2.67 opponent)
- Chapecoense matches average 3.71 yellows combined
- Fluminense average 2.47 yellows per game, Chapecoense 2.29
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches routinely produce enough work on goal to pass this line.
- Fluminense away matches average 10.83 shots on target combined
- Chapecoense home matches average 7.83 combined
- Fluminense overall matches average 9.47 combined on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Fluminense concede a high volume of corners away, which offsets their own low corner count.
- Fluminense away matches average 10.33 corners combined (2.5 own, 7.83 opponent)
- Chapecoense home matches average 9.67 corners combined
- Chapecoense matches average 10.29 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.17 price requires 85.5%, above our 82.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Chapecoense: 2/4 recent corners projections matched

2 of 4 comparable corners projections involving Chapecoense matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Chapecoense4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A