CSKA 1948 Sofia4Botev Plovdiv0

HT 3–0Fri 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 14–13On targetOn target 7–6CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth hosts fifth with three points between them, and CSKA 1948's 5-0-1 home league split meets Botev Plovdiv's six straight wins in all competitions.

CSKA look the likelier winners at home, though Botev's away league form and the 0-0 here last March keep it close. The quoted prices give nothing back: CSKA at 2.00 asks too much, over 2.5 goals at 1.78 offers nothing, and a first-half goal at 1.30 is merely fair.

Context

The killing removed not only a president but the owner whose transport group PIMK is the club's principal sponsor, so Botev's funding now depends on a company controlled by people who have signalled they will step back. Players and staff have already moved through the emotional peak — a full house and a tribute before the Slavia Sofia game on 10 October — and results have held since. The exposure is administrative: sponsorship renewals, contract talks and next season's planning rather than this XI. There is no evidence of unpaid wages or an immediate squad break-up, so the practical effect on the 90 minutes is likelier to sit in mood and atmosphere than in personnel.
- Botev Plovdiv announced on its own website the killing of owner Iliyan Filipov in the early hours of 30 September 2026.
- French sports daily L'Équipe reported Filipov, 53, was shot dead near his home and that an investigation was opened; police cordoned off the area in Plovdiv.
- Filipov also founded the PIMK transport group, and CSKA Sofia published a condolence note naming him owner of Botev Plovdiv.
- Around 18,000 Botev supporters paid tribute to him at the club's next home league match, against Slavia Sofia on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Succession matters because Botev's current standing was built on spending Filipov underwrote, and the people who inherit that obligation have chosen not to carry it. If sponsors follow the family out, the pressure lands in January and next season rather than in this XI, which is why no selection change follows from it yet. The reports come from supporter accounts rather than the club, so the scale of any sponsorship loss is unquantified. For this fixture the relevant risk is distraction and unsettled contracts around a squad that has been winning, not a visibly weakened lineup.
- Bulgarian football account the feed reported on 18 October that Iliyan Filipov's heirs had withdrawn from Botev Plovdiv.
- A Botev-following account said the heirs remain open to a sponsorship relationship, that Filipov's company is currently the club's main sponsor, and that most sponsors are expected to leave.
- The same account said funding is secured only until the end of 2026, against an overall team budget of more than 9 million.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest
European league-phase football is the clearest workload difference between these squads: CSKA 1948 played Monaco in mid-October and still have continental fixtures around this league round, while Botev Plovdiv's calendar in the same weeks has been domestic. Coaches in that position typically rotate wide players and midfield legs, and CSKA 1948 list enough senior options to do so. The evidence is indirect — the Monaco fixture is documented through a settled bet slip and KuPS's opponent list rather than a competition feed, and no minutes data for the European games was available. Rotation is therefore a plausible expectation, not a documented plan.
- A settled betting slip dated 15 October listed 'FC CSKA 1948 Sofia vs AS Monaco' under UEFA Conference League, with Monaco winning, over 2.5 goals and Paris Brunner scoring.
- A KuPS supporter account on 14 October listed CSKA 1948 among the clubs the Finnish side will meet in the Conference League, alongside Samsunspor, Braga and Nordsjaelland.
- CSKA 1948 had come through the qualifying rounds, drawing 1-1 away at Panathinaikos in early August.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Botev Plovdiv arrive in the best form of their season but have won only twice in five league away games.
Across 13 competitive matches from 21 July to 18 October 2026 Botev average 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, and the current run includes a 4-0 cup win at Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on 18 October. The away league split is the counterweight: two wins and three defeats from five, with eight scored and eight conceded. The winning run makes them dangerous visitors; the split says a trip to a top-four side is a genuine test.
- 13 competitive matches from 21 July to 18 October 2026: Botev Plovdiv average 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game.
- League away record of 2W-0D-3L, with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded in five matches (standings fetched 22 October 2026).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Botev have not conceded before half-time in six recent matches, and the last home head-to-head was 0-0, making both teams scoring before the break unlikely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.78fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 56.2%

−0.2ppshort

Both sides' league goal totals point to a relatively open game, and their home/away splits also lean above two and a half.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2.00fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 50%

−6.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's strong home record and head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner, but Botev's recent form keeps the match open.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
CSKA 1948's strong home record and head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner, but Botev's recent form keeps the match open.
- CSKA 1948 are 5W-0D-1L at home, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded.
- Botev Plovdiv are 2W-0D-3L away in the league, with 8 goals for and 8 against in five away games.
- CSKA 1948 have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, though the most recent was 0-0 at CSKA 1948.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring and conceding rates are closely matched, making a level first half the single most likely result.
- Both teams average 0.83 first-half goals in their respective home/away splits.
- Both concede 0.67 first-half goals in those splits.
- The most recent head-to-head at CSKA 1948 was 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's strong home record and head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner, but Botev's recent form keeps the match open. A tight match is plausible given CSKA's home strength against Botev's away record and the low-scoring recent head-to-head at this venue.
- CSKA 1948 are 5W-0D-1L at home, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded.
- Botev Plovdiv are 2W-0D-3L away in the league, with 8 goals for and 8 against in five away games.
- The last head-to-head at CSKA 1948 ended 0-0.
- CSKA 1948 have drawn 3 of 14 competitive matches; Botev have drawn 1 of 13.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA 1948 Sofia or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's home first-half scoring is slightly better than Botev's away first-half defence, giving them a narrow edge before the break. The first-half scoring and conceding rates are closely matched, making a level first half the single most likely result.
- CSKA average 0.83 first-half goals at home and concede 0.67.
- Botev average 0.83 first-half goals away and concede 0.67.
- Both teams average 0.83 first-half goals in their respective home/away splits.
- Both concede 0.67 first-half goals in those splits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCSKA 1948 Sofia or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both sides' league goal totals point to a relatively open game, and their home/away splits also lean above two and a half.
- CSKA 1948 league matches average 3.09 goals; Botev Plovdiv's average 2.82.
- CSKA home matches average 3.50 goals (2.33 for, 1.17 against).
- Botev away matches average 3.33 goals (2.00 for, 1.33 against).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA score reliably at home and Botev arrive scoring in every recent match, so both teams finding the net is a reasonable outcome.
- CSKA 1948 scored in all six home matches; Botev scored in four of six away matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in five of six home matches.
- Botev have scored in each of their last six matches in all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's home scoring average and Botev's away concession rate make two or more home goals more likely than not.
- CSKA 1948 average 2.33 goals in six home matches.
- They scored in all six home matches.
- Botev Plovdiv concede 1.33 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCSKA 1948 Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head record shows Botev rarely reaching two goals against CSKA, so the under is also supported.
- Botev scored at most once in each of the last four head-to-heads.
- CSKA 1948 kept three clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Botev's away league record includes three defeats in five.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBotev Plovdiv under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
A first-half goal has been common for both teams recently, and their combined first-half scoring rate supports the over.
- Both teams average 0.83 first-half goals in their respective home/away splits.
- CSKA have seen a first-half goal in five of their last six matches.
- Botev have seen a first-half goal in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Botev have not conceded before half-time in six recent matches, and the last home head-to-head was 0-0, making both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Botev have not conceded a first-half goal in their last six matches.
- The last head-to-head at CSKA 1948 was 0-0.
- CSKA scored in the first half in only three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The team corner averages are below the line, especially in the home/away splits, so the under is slightly favoured.
- CSKA average 4.5 corners in home matches; Botev average 3.0 in away matches.
- The combined overall corner average is 9.11.
- Corner data covers only four CSKA home and two Botev away matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's home matches have stayed near three yellow cards, so the under is only narrowly favoured.
- CSKA's home split averages 3.0 total yellow cards.
- CSKA average 1.46 yellow cards; Botev average 2.09.
- No red cards are recorded for Botev in 11 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance51%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D0-0CSKA 1948vBotev PlovdivMar 8, 2026FIR

W1-2Botev PlovdivvCSKA 1948Sep 25, 2025FIR

W0-5Botev PlovdivvCSKA 1948Mar 16, 2025FIR

W0-1CSKA 1948vBotev PlovdivSep 29, 2024FIR

D0-0CSKA 1948vBotev PlovdivJun 28, 2024FRI

CSKA 1948 Sofia unbeaten in 5 meetingsCSKA 1948 Sofia: 4 clean sheetsBotev Plovdiv: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	11	7	1	3	21-13	22	LWWLW
5	Botev Plovdiv Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	11	6	1	4	17-14	19	WWWWL