Botev Plovdiv1Slavia Sofia0

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 10–3On targetOn target 4–0CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Botev Plovdiv are home on a three-match winning run, but this is their first game since their owner was killed, in front of a sold-out one-euro crowd.

Slavia Sofia travel well and have conceded twice in four away league games, so a tight, low-scoring match with the draw or the away side live looks likeliest. Slavia avoiding defeat at 2.15, an away win at 4.75 and no goals before half-time at 2.9 are the prices that offer something.

Context

Filipov was shot at his Plovdiv property shortly after 1am on 30 September, and a 51-year-old former employee of one of his companies has since been charged, with prosecutors describing the motive as personal and financial. Because this is the team's first match since, the afternoon at their home ground is freighted in a way no form line captures: tickets were priced at a euro and sold out within days, and the players will wear a commemorative kit. What the public record does not contain is a football-specific change — no coaching or selection consequence of the killing has surfaced, so the effect on how Botev set up remains unknown.
- Botev Plovdiv's president and owner Iliyan Filipov was shot dead in Plovdiv in the early hours of 30 September 2026.
- Police said the killing took place around 1am at a property he owned and that he died of a gunshot wound.
- A 51-year-old was detained in Sofia and then charged, with prosecutors describing the motive as personal and rooted in financial relations.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Over 10,000 tickets were taken for the Slavia game within days of the owner's death, and the price was cut to one euro as a mark of respect before the match sold out. Practically that means a fuller and louder home ground than Botev's usual league fixtures, with the team in a commemorative strip — conditions that standard attendance and form data will not show. It is a single-occasion effect tied to this round rather than a lasting pattern, and only limited extra seats followed the initial allocation.
- Fans of Botev Plovdiv took up more than 10,000 tickets for the match with Slavia Sofia within days of the owner's death.
- Tickets for the fixture sold out after being priced at one euro each as a gesture in honour of Iliyan Filipov.
- A tribute kit for Filipov was unveiled and the players were to wear it in the Saturday match.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Botev's 1-0 win in Sofia in March 2026 is the most recent result in the series.
The five meetings since May 2024 produced two Botev wins, two Slavia wins and a draw, and only Slavia's 3-1 home win in May 2024 came by more than one goal. That points away from a comfortable winner and towards a one-goal game or a share of the points, a shape that fits a Slavia side which has drawn five of its ten league matches.
- 20 March 2026 — Slavia Sofia 0-1 Botev Plovdiv, First League: Botev won away.
- 18 October 2025 — Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Slavia Sofia, First League.
- Last five meetings, 20 May 2024 to 20 March 2026: two Botev wins, two Slavia wins, one draw.
Slavia have scored 1.25 goals per away game and conceded twice in four, so the away leg of their record is where they have been most solid. Botev have scored eight and conceded six in five home league games, which is why the draw-or-away-side and away-win prices carry something, even though Slavia's overall scoring is modest.
- Slavia's four away league games, 24 July–7 September 2026: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
- Goals in those four away matches: 5 scored, 2 conceded (0.5 per game).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev score more freely at home and arrive on a three-match winning run against a Slavia side that rarely scores twice.
- Botev are 3W-1D-1L at home this season, scoring 8 goals in 5 home league games
- Botev have won their last three league matches, scoring 8 goals in the process
- Slavia average 0.9 goals per game and have scored 9 league goals in 10 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBotev PlovdivEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, which keeps the level score the single most likely outcome at the break.
- Slavia's league matches average 0.5 first-half goals in total
- Slavia have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Botev have conceded no first-half goals at home in 5 league games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side dominates the second-half picture strongly enough to make a level result unlikely.
- Botev's home games average 1.6 second-half goals in total
- Slavia's away games average 1.25 second-half goals
- Single-half results are level far more often than full matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botev score more freely at home and arrive on a three-match winning run against a Slavia side that rarely scores twice. Slavia's habit of low-scoring, tight matches makes a share of the points a realistic outcome.
- Botev are 3W-1D-1L at home this season, scoring 8 goals in 5 home league games
- Botev have won their last three league matches, scoring 8 goals in the process
- Slavia have drawn 5 of their 10 league matches
- Slavia's away record is 2W-1D-1L with just 2 goals conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBotev Plovdiv or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Botev's first-half scoring at home is the strongest split in the data, while Slavia barely score before the break. Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, which keeps the level score the single most likely outcome at the break.
- Botev average 1.2 first-half goals at home and have conceded none in five home league games
- Slavia average 0.3 first-half goals per game and 0.25 away
- Slavia's league matches average 0.5 first-half goals in total
- Slavia have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBotev Plovdiv or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Slavia's away games have been low-scoring and their defensive record points to a tight match.
- Slavia's 10 league games average 1.7 goals in total
- Slavia have conceded 0.5 goals per away game
- Slavia have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides find the net often enough for this to be a slight lean rather than a clear call.
- Botev have scored in 8 of their 10 league matches
- Slavia have scored in 3 of their 4 away league games
- Both teams scored in 3 of Botev's 5 home games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's away defence is the strongest part of their game and should limit Botev's home tally.
- Slavia have conceded only 2 goals in 4 away league games
- Botev average 1.6 goals per home game
- Slavia kept 4 clean sheets in 10 league matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBotev Plovdiv under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia have found a way to score on the road and Botev concede at home fairly often.
- Slavia scored 5 goals across 4 away league games
- Slavia have scored in 7 of their 10 league matches
- Botev conceded 6 goals in 5 home league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSlavia Sofia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's habit of scoring early at home makes at least one first-half goal the more likely outcome.
- Botev's home league games average 1.2 first-half goals
- Slavia's league games average 0.5 first-half goals in total
- Botev scored first-half goals in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's low-scoring profile keeps the second half under two goals the more likely outcome.
- Slavia's league games average 1.2 second-half goals in total
- Slavia concede 0.25 second-half goals away
- Botev average 0.4 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's away matches generate plenty of corners from both sides, pushing the total towards the over.
- Botev's home games average 8.2 corners in total; Slavia's away games average 10.5
- Botev concede 5.6 corners per game, the highest split in their data
- Slavia win 4.0 corners per away game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's home matches are shot-heavy and Slavia's opponents regularly reach double figures.
- Botev's home matches average 23.0 shots in total
- Botev average 12.5 shots and concede 11.8 per game
- Slavia's away matches average 18.5 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 19.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's shooting volume alone should carry most of this total, with Slavia adding little.
- Botev's home matches average 10.6 shots on target in total
- Botev average 6.0 shots on target and concede 4.8 per game
- Slavia average 2.6 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's card count and the occasion push the total just above the line.
- Slavia's away matches average 5.25 cards in total
- Slavia average 2.8 yellow cards per game, Botev 2.1
- Botev's home matches average 4.4 cards in total
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1Slavia SofiavBotev PlovdivMar 20, 2026FIR

D1-1Botev PlovdivvSlavia SofiaOct 18, 2025FIR

L3-2Slavia SofiavBotev PlovdivMar 3, 2025FIR

W1-0Botev PlovdivvSlavia SofiaOct 19, 2024FIR

L3-1Slavia SofiavBotev PlovdivMay 20, 2024FIR

Botev Plovdiv: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Botev Plovdiv Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	10	5	1	4	16-14	16	WWWLL
7	Slavia Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	10	2	5	3	9-8	11	LDWLD