Monterey Bay0Colorado Springs Switchbacks1

HT 0–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 16:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Monterey Bay face a Colorado Springs side that has drawn four straight league games, three 0-0, so April's 4-1 win is stale.

Colorado Springs remain the stronger side over the season, but little separates them on current form and a tight, low-scoring night looks likeliest. Five prices offer value: Monterey Bay level or ahead at half-time at 1.55, not both teams scoring before half-time at 1.22, Monterey Bay to win or draw at 1.91, Monterey Bay to lead at half-time at 4.00 and the draw at 3.80. Colorado Springs to win at 1.80 does not.

Context

The April meeting is the clearest recent read on this matchup: Masereka created three goals from wide areas and Bennett converted twice, while Monterey Bay's only reply came from Ilijah Paul. Both clubs have changed since then, and Colorado Springs' current run of four straight draws shows they are a different attacking proposition now. The return leg at Cardinale Stadium is the two clubs' last scheduled meeting of the regular season, so it is the direct opportunity for Monterey Bay to answer that result. The April scoreline is a reference point rather than a guide to what happens next.
- Colorado Springs Switchbacks beat Monterey Bay 4-1 at Weidner Field on April 18, 2026, leading 2-0 at half-time.
- Sadam Masereka assisted three of the four goals and Khori Bennett scored twice, including a penalty.
- Adrien Perez scored a direct free kick and Juan Tejada also scored, while Ilijah Paul scored Monterey Bay's only goal.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match reportwww.transfermarkt.us · 18 Apr 2026
A late-season switch to an alternate shape can change how Colorado Springs press and build away from home. They have been hard to break down during a four-match draw run but have also struggled to score, needing a first goal in four games to earn the 1-1 draw at Sacramento. Monterey Bay have conceded regularly this season, so the shape choice will influence how many chances the visitors create. The club has not detailed the new system or how long it will be used.
- Colorado Springs adjusted to an alternate formation as the season nears its end, reported on October 10 in local Colorado Springs coverage.
- The Switchbacks have drawn four straight league matches while keeping three clean sheets in that run.
ReportedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Lletget has contributed directly in each of Monterey Bay's last two league games, a goal and assist at Orange County followed by the goal and man-of-the-match award at New Mexico. That output is the clearest attacking signal for a side that has otherwise struggled to score consistently and has slipped down the Western Conference table. Colorado Springs arrive on a run of low-scoring draws, so a single moment from Lletget could separate the teams. Monterey Bay have still lost three of their last five matches despite his form.
- Sebastian Lletget scored in the 56th minute at New Mexico on October 11 and was named Monterey Bay's man of the match.
- He recorded a goal and an assist within four minutes in the 2-1 win at Orange County on October 4 and made the USL Championship Team of the Week on October 6.
- S. Lletget started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Bennett's 14 league goals place him among the division's leading scorers, and he already has a two-goal game against this opponent from April. Colorado Springs have found goals hard to come by recently, drawing three straight 0-0 before the 1-1 at Sacramento, so Bennett is their most likely route to a goal on the road. Monterey Bay have conceded heavily at times this season. Bennett was not among the scorers during the recent drought, so the April brace is a matchup reference rather than current evidence.
- Khori Bennett has scored 14 goals in USL Championship play this season, among the division's leading scorers.
- He scored twice, including a penalty, in the 4-1 win over Monterey Bay on April 18.
- K. Bennett started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match reportwww.transfermarkt.us · 18 Apr 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs have the stronger season record and beat Monterey Bay comfortably in April.
- Colorado Springs are 6th on 41 points; Monterey Bay are 12th on 21.
- Colorado Springs won the April fixture 4-1 and lead the recent head-to-head.
- Monterey Bay's 15-match window is 1W-4D-10L.
- Colorado Springs have won 4 of 14 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves have been low-scoring for Colorado Springs and the sides often reach the break level.
- Colorado Springs have scored no first-half goals in their last six.
- Colorado Springs average 0.2 first-half goals overall.
- Monterey Bay average 0.6 first-half goals overall.
- Monterey Bay's home split sees 0.33 first-half goals against.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs score most of their goals late while Monterey Bay concede heavily after half-time.
- Colorado Springs average 1.0 second-half goals overall.
- Monterey Bay concede 2.17 second-half goals at home in the window.
- Monterey Bay's second-half goals-against average is 1.33 overall.
- Colorado Springs have scored most of their goals after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostColorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's home record is much better than their overall form, and Colorado Springs have been drawing rather than winning. Colorado Springs have the stronger season record and beat Monterey Bay comfortably in April.
- Monterey Bay are 1W-4D-10L across the 15-match window.
- At home they are 4W-3D-6L this season with 17 scored and 20 conceded in 13.
- Colorado Springs are 6th on 41 points; Monterey Bay are 12th on 21.
- Colorado Springs won the April fixture 4-1 and lead the recent head-to-head.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMonterey Bay or Colorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Monterey Bay carry more first-half threat at home than Colorado Springs do away. First halves have been low-scoring for Colorado Springs and the sides often reach the break level.
- Monterey Bay average 0.83 first-half goals at home.
- Colorado Springs average 0.25 first-half goals away.
- Colorado Springs have scored no first-half goals in their last six.
- Colorado Springs average 0.2 first-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMonterey Bay or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season home and away records point to around three goals a game.
- Monterey Bay home games average 2.85 goals (17 for, 20 against in 13).
- Colorado Springs away games average 2.93 goals (18 for, 23 against in 14).
- Colorado Springs' last six matches produced eight goals in total.
- Monterey Bay conceded in all six of their recent home-window matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay score regularly at home and their defence concedes, but Colorado Springs' recent output is light.
- Monterey Bay's home split shows both teams scoring in all six matches.
- Monterey Bay scored in five of their last six matches.
- Colorado Springs scored in four of their eight away-window matches.
- Monterey Bay have one clean sheet in 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's recent home output has been modest and Colorado Springs are defending well.
- Monterey Bay's home split shows six goals in six matches.
- Their overall window averages 1.2 goals for.
- Colorado Springs kept clean sheets in three of their last six.
- Monterey Bay scored once or none in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMonterey Bay under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs have been scoring sparingly and their last four league games brought two goals.
- Colorado Springs scored four goals in their last six matches.
- They recorded three 0-0 draws in that run.
- Their away-window average is 1.125 goals.
- Monterey Bay's home split concedes one goal per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonColorado Springs Switchbacks under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's defence has conceded consistently across the season and at home.
- Monterey Bay kept one clean sheet in 15.
- They conceded in all six home-window matches.
- They conceded 20 in 13 home matches.
- Colorado Springs scored 18 away goals in 14.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonColorado Springs Switchbacks to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay have scored in each home-window match and Colorado Springs concede on the road.
- Monterey Bay scored in all six home-window matches.
- Monterey Bay scored 17 in 13 home matches.
- Colorado Springs conceded 23 in 14 away matches.
- Monterey Bay scored in five of their last six.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMonterey Bay to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay score regularly at home, making a Colorado Springs clean-sheet win unlikely.
- Monterey Bay scored in all six home-window matches.
- Monterey Bay scored in five of their last six.
- Colorado Springs won 4 of 14 away matches.
- Colorado Springs are winless in six.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal expectation is around one, giving a slight lean to a goal before the break.
- Monterey Bay average 0.83 first-half goals at home.
- Colorado Springs average 0.25 first-half goals away.
- Monterey Bay average 0.6 first-half goals overall.
- Colorado Springs have scored no first-half goals in six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Colorado Springs' very low first-half scoring makes both teams scoring before the break improbable.
- Colorado Springs have scored no first-half goals in their last six.
- Colorado Springs average 0.2 first-half goals overall and 0.25 away.
- Monterey Bay concede 0.33 first-half goals at home.
- Monterey Bay's home split shows 0.83 first-half goals for.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's second-half defending is weak and Colorado Springs score after the break.
- Monterey Bay concede 2.17 second-half goals at home in the window.
- Colorado Springs average 1.0 second-half goals overall.
- Monterey Bay average 0.67 second-half goals at home.
- Monterey Bay's second-half goals-against average is 1.33 overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Colorado Springs Switchbacks: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Colorado Springs Switchbacks matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Colorado Springs Switchbacks4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·USL Championship