Molde6Start Kristiansand1

HT 2–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 12–3CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Molde, fourth, host bottom club Start, who have won once in 11 away league games, so the home win is the likely outcome — but the 1.3 offered for it gives back too little against a side that drew 1-1 in Kristiansand in April.

Under 2.5 goals at 3.2 is the one quoted price with value.

Context

Molde and Start arrive at opposite ends of the table, with Molde fourth and chasing a European place while Start are bottom and five points from the relegation play-off. That gap shapes the likely pattern at Aker Stadion: the home side can press high and dominate possession, while Start need points and may sit deeper or gamble late. The positions were already clear before kick-off, and a single result cannot settle either race, so the table frames expectation rather than deciding the game.
- Molde were fourth on 37 points after the 11 October round.
- Start were 16th on 16 points, five points behind the relegation play-off place.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
The Start fixture opens a run of three straight home league games for Molde, after a spell in which their league matches included the 2-2 draw at Lillestrøm on 11 October. A home block can shape how heavily a squad is rotated and how aggressively a side chases results as Molde push for European places. Home advantage is not decisive on its own, though: Molde lost 1-2 to Aalesund in their previous league game at Aker Stadion on 19 September.
- Molde host Start at Aker Stadion on Sunday 18 October at 17:00 local time.
- Molde's two following league fixtures are also at home, making the Start match the first of three consecutive home games.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Molde's absentee list cuts across the squad as the home block begins: a goalkeeper out since April, three players listed with end-of-December returns, and a defender unavailable since early September. Missing options in goal, midfield and attack tests depth across three consecutive home games Molde want to win. The injury table does not identify likely starters, so how much the XI is weakened for the Start match remains uncertain.
- Mads Kikkenborg has been out since 12 April 2026 with an Achilles tendon rupture.
- Vebjørn Hoff, Seydina Diop and Halldor Stenevik are listed with expected returns of 31 December 2026.
- Sivert Sira Hansen has been out since 4 September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt injury listwww.transfermarkt.com · 15 Oct 2026
Breivik's caution count places him among the Molde players flagged as at risk of a suspension. Bookings accumulate across the season, so an active role against Start carries the extra cost of a possible ban during the run-in. The listing does not spell out the exact threshold or confirm that a ban is imminent, so how much it changes his selection or aggression is unclear.
- Emil Breivik has three yellow cards in 22 appearances.
- He is listed among Molde players at risk of suspension.
ReportedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt injury and suspension listwww.transfermarkt.com · 15 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Molde

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

−11.9ppshort

Molde's strong home record and much higher scoring rate face a bottom side with the league's worst away return.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Molde's strong home record and much higher scoring rate face a bottom side with the league's worst away return.
- Molde are 4th on 37 points with a home league record of 7W-1D-3L (24 goals for, 13 against).
- Start are 16th on 16 points, with 1W-1D-9L and 29 goals conceded in 11 away league games.
- Molde's 13-match competitive window: 7W-3D-3L, averaging 3.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
- Molde's recent five home matches read 2W-1D-2L with 1.8 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMoldeEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Molde's first-half scoring and Start's habit of conceding early give Molde the edge at the break.
- Molde average 1.46 first-half goals scored and 0.92 conceded.
- Molde scored in the first half of each of their last six matches.
- Start average 0.77 first-half goals and conceded first-half goals in four of their last six.
- Molde's recent first halves include 4-3 and 2-1 leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMoldeEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Molde's second-half scoring is the strongest part of their game, giving them the edge after the break.
- Molde average 1.92 second-half goals and 0.69 conceded.
- Start average 0.85 second-half goals and 0.92 conceded.
- Molde scored four second-half goals at Ham-Kam and four at Valerenga.
- Molde's home second-half split is 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMoldeEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's strong home record and much higher scoring rate face a bottom side with the league's worst away return. A draw is possible, but Start have no draws in the window and Molde's home form points away from a stalemate.
- Molde are 4th on 37 points with a home league record of 7W-1D-3L (24 goals for, 13 against).
- Start are 16th on 16 points, with 1W-1D-9L and 29 goals conceded in 11 away league games.
- Molde drew 3 of 13 competitive matches in the window.
- Start drew none of their 13 competitive matches in the same window.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMolde or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's first-half scoring and Start's habit of conceding early give Molde the edge at the break. A level first half is common, and Molde's home first-half output is modest.
- Molde average 1.46 first-half goals scored and 0.92 conceded.
- Molde scored in the first half of each of their last six matches.
- Molde's five home games average 0.6 first-half goals scored.
- Start's away split shows 0.714 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMolde or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Molde score heavily and Start's away defence has shipped 29 in 11, so three or more goals looks the likelier total.
- Molde's window averages 3.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
- Molde's home league games average 2.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
- Start's away league games average 0.91 scored and 2.64 conceded.
- Recent scorelines include 5-1, 2-4, 4-3 and 5-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Molde concede regularly and Start carry a scoring threat, making both teams finding the net more likely than not.
- Molde saw both teams score in 10 of 13 competitive matches.
- Start saw both teams score in 7 of 13.
- Molde conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Molde's home league games produced 13 goals against in 11.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's home scoring rate against a defence conceding heavily away makes two or more home goals likely.
- Molde scored 24 goals in 11 home league games (2.18 per game).
- Start conceded 29 goals in 11 away league games (2.64 per game).
- Molde scored two or more in four of their last six matches.
- Start conceded three or more at Sandefjord and four at home to Ham-Kam.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMolde over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's away league output is limited, making fewer than two away goals likely.
- Start scored 10 goals in 11 away league games.
- Start were blanked at Sandefjord and at Aalesund in recent league trips.
- Molde kept 3 clean sheets across 13 competitive matches.
- Molde's five recent home games conceded 1.8 per game but faced stronger visitors.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonStart Kristiansand under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Goalless first halves are rare for both teams, so at least one first-half goal is very likely.
- Molde's first-half games average 2.38 total goals.
- Start's first-half games average 1.69 total goals.
- Molde scored in the first half of all of their last six matches.
- Only one of the combined last twelve matches had a goalless first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half clean sheet for Molde is more likely than Start scoring early.
- Start average 0.77 first-half goals scored.
- Molde average 1.46 first-half goals scored.
- Molde kept a first-half clean sheet in three of their last six matches.
- Start failed to score before half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's heavy second-half scoring makes two or more goals after the break more likely than not.
- Molde's second-half games average 2.61 total goals.
- Start's second-half games average 1.77 total goals.
- Molde scored four second-half goals in each of two recent matches.
- Molde conceded three second-half goals at Valerenga.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner expectancy sits around the line, with the away side's modest output tipping it under.
- Molde's home matches average 6.6 corners with 3.6 against.
- Start's away split shows 4.75 corners and 4.75 against.
- Start's away league games average 5.6 corners and 4.9 against.
- Molde's recent away corner totals were 2, 2 and 6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot averages sit around 30-32, below the 37.5 line.
- Molde's window averages 30.4 total shots per match.
- Start's window averages 31.7 total shots per match.
- Molde's recent totals include 27, 29 and 33.
- Start's 0-3 at Sandefjord produced only 26 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 37.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target averages sit below the line, helped by Start's low away output.
- Molde's window averages 11.0 combined shots on target per match.
- Start's window averages 9.0 combined shots on target per match.
- Start recorded 0 shots on target in the 0-3 loss at Sandefjord.
- Molde's 2-0 win over KFUM Oslo produced 6 combined on-target shots.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance54%