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MoldeKFUM Oslo

Sun 6 Sept 2026, 15:006 Sept, 15:00

11Probabilities0Priced8Edges88%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Molde are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the match winner or over 2.5 goals.

The best betting opportunity is over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91, where our model sees a 60% probability versus the implied 52.4%, giving a positive edge of eight points.

Context

Molde's strong home record and KFUM Oslo's poor away form shape the match, but no injuries or suspensions are reported.

Molde sits 4th in Eliteserien with 30 points and a home record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
Molde's home scoring is a key factor. They have scored 21 goals in 9 home matches, an average of 2.3 per game, and their overall average is 2.7 goals per match. KFUM Oslo's away defense has been weak, conceding 19 goals in 8 away games, an average of 2.4 per game. This suggests Molde can create chances, but KFUM Oslo's recent 4-1 loss to Start shows they can be vulnerable.
- Molde averages 2.7 goals per game overall.
- Molde has scored 21 goals in 9 home matches.
- KFUM Oslo concedes 1.8 goals per game overall.
- KFUM Oslo has conceded 19 goals in 8 away matches.
KFUM Oslo is 13th in the table with 19 points, only 3 points above the relegation line.
KFUM Oslo's away record is a major concern: 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses in 8 away matches, with 9 goals scored and 19 conceded. Molde's home record is strong with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. This contrast suggests Molde is likely to control the match, but KFUM Oslo's recent 1-0 away win at Sandefjord shows they can grind out results.
- KFUM Oslo has 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses in 8 away matches.
- KFUM Oslo has scored 9 goals and conceded 19 goals away.
- Molde has 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in 9 home matches.
The teams have met five times since 2024, with Molde winning two, KFUM Oslo winning one, and two draws.
Molde has had the upper hand in recent meetings. In the most recent league match on 2026-07-26, Molde won 4-2 away, and in a friendly on 2026-06-21, Molde won 5-1 at home. However, KFUM Oslo won 3-2 at Molde in June 2025, so they have shown they can compete. The recent results suggest Molde has a psychological edge, but the sample is small.
- Molde won 4-2 away on 2026-07-26.
- Molde won 5-1 at home in a friendly on 2026-06-21.
- KFUM Oslo won 3-2 at Molde on 2025-06-29.
KFUM Oslo defender Daniel Schneider is suspended after a second booking in stoppage time against Start.
The confirmed suspension removes one defensive selection option for the trip to Molde and may force a change in KFUM's defensive organization. The club has not yet indicated who will replace him, so the exact adjustment remains uncertain.
- KFUM reported that Daniel Schneider received a second yellow card in stoppage time against Start.
- The club stated that he must miss the next match against Molde.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:47 · Europe/BucharestKFUM: Tungt fra start i Kristiansandwww.kaaffa.no · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Molde

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Molde's strong home form (6W-1D-2L) and KFUM's poor away record (1W-2D-5L) support a home win, but the odds are already short.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Molde or Draw

1.09fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 91.7%

−3.7ppshort

Molde are unbeaten in 77.8% of home matches and KFUM have only a 12.5% away win rate, but the odds offer no value.

1 St Half ResultUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Molde

1.73fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Molde's first-half scoring average (1.3 goals) and KFUM's tendency to trail (40%) support a Molde lead, but the odds are too short.

HT/FTUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Molde at half-time / Molde at full-time

1.91fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 52.4%

−12.4ppshort

Molde's ability to take early leads and maintain them at home is decent, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches tend to be high-scoring, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, but the odds are slightly against us.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 88%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's strong home form and superior squad quality, combined with KFUM's poor away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Molde home record: 6W-1D-2L, 21 goals scored, 11 conceded in 9 home matches
- KFUM away record: 1W-2D-5L, 9 goals scored, 19 conceded in 8 away matches
- Molde overall form: 9W-3D-6L, 36 goals scored, 29 conceded; KFUM 5W-4D-9L, 20 scored, 31 conceded
- H2H last 5: Molde 2 wins, KFUM 1 win, 2 draws; Molde won most recent league meeting 4-2 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerMoldeEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Molde's strong home form and KFUM's struggles away, the double chance of Molde or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Molde home record: 6W-1D-2L (77.8% unbeaten at home)
- KFUM away record: 1W-2D-5L (only 12.5% win rate away)
- H2H: Molde unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings (2W,1D)
BetBugs · Double ChanceMolde or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Molde's tendency to start strongly and KFUM's vulnerability early suggest Molde is the most likely first-half leader.
- Molde led at half-time in 47% of last 15 matches; KFUM trailed at half-time in 40%
- Molde averages 1.3 first-half goals scored vs 0.9 conceded; KFUM averages 0.9 scored vs 0.9 conceded
- H2H: Molde led at half-time in 2 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerMoldeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Molde's ability to take early leads and maintain them at home makes HT/FT Molde/Molde a reasonable prediction.
- Molde led at half-time in 47% of matches and won 60% overall
- KFUM trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 50% overall
- Molde home record: 6W-1D-2L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleMolde/MoldeEstimated chance40%

Goals4 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches, especially involving Molde at home and KFUM away, tend to produce high-scoring games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Molde home matches average 3.56 total goals (21 scored + 11 conceded in 9 games)
- KFUM away matches average 3.5 total goals (9 scored + 19 conceded in 8 games)
- Molde overall averages 3.6 goals per game (2.0 for, 1.6 against); KFUM averages 2.8 (1.1 for, 1.7 against)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, and recent H2H meetings support both teams finding the net.
- Molde home: scored in 8 of 9 matches, conceded in 6 of 9
- KFUM away: scored in 6 of 8 matches, conceded in 7 of 8
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Molde particularly strong early, making over 1.5 first-half goals plausible.
- Molde averages 1.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15 matches
- KFUM averages 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15 matches
- Combined average first-half goals: 2.2 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as teams push for results, and both teams' averages support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Molde averages 1.4 second-half goals scored (2.7 total - 1.3 first half) and 1.0 conceded (1.9 - 0.9)
- KFUM averages 0.3 second-half goals scored (1.2 - 0.9) and 0.9 conceded (1.8 - 0.9)
- Combined average second-half goals: 1.7 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics suggest a total around 10 corners, making over 9.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Molde averages 5.9 corners per match, opponent corners 4.3 (total 10.2)
- KFUM averages 4.3 corners per match, opponent corners 5.6 (total 9.9)
- Combined average total corners: 10.05
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are above 8.5, supporting an over prediction.
- Molde averages 6.1 shots on target per match, opponent 3.9 (total 10.0)
- KFUM averages 3.8 shots on target per match, opponent 5.1 (total 8.9)
- Combined average shots on target: 9.45
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages indicate a total above 3.5 cards is likely.
- Molde averages 2.3 yellow cards per match, opponent 1.9 (total 4.2)
- KFUM averages 2.2 yellow cards per match, opponent 2.1 (total 4.3)
- Combined average total cards: 4.25
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Molde has been highly reliable when projected for over 2.5 goals

Molde's over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 4 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 60%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 62% is above the historical range of 60%, suggesting slightly stronger confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Molde5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien

KFUM Oslo2-4 Molde

Molde

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→6 total goals

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Eliteserien

KFUM Oslo2-4

Molde

Over 2.5 goals